Modeling Epidemiologic Typing Data and Likelihood Inference for Disease Spread
流行病学分型数据建模与疾病传播的似然推断
A model for epidemiologic typing data is introduced, and likelihood ratio methods are developed for evaluating these data as evidence about disease spread. The observed data consist of microorganism subtypes from an index case of infectious disease, cases clustered with the index case, and a reference sample. The likelihood methods are evaluated via probabilities of observing epidemiologic subtypes that represent strong and sometimes misleading evidence favoring one…