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重尾误差下 GARCH(1,1) 模型的最小二乘估计AI 解读

GARCH(1,1) models are widely used for modelling processes with time‐varying volatility. These include financial time series, which can be particularly heavy tailed. In this paper, we propose a novel log‐transform‐based least‐squares approach to the estimation of GARCH(1,1) models. Within this approach, the scale of the estimated volatility is dependent on an unknown tuning constant. By means of a backtesting exercise on both real and simulated data, we show that knowledge of…

马尔可夫切换 GARCH 模型的理论与推断AI 解读

We develop a Markov-switching GARCH model (MS-GARCH) wherein the conditional mean and variance switch in time from one GARCH process to another. The switching is governed by a hidden Markov chain. We provide sufficient conditions for geometric ergodicity and existence of moments of the process. Because of path dependence, maximum likelihood estimation is not feasible. By enlarging the parameter space to include the state variables, Bayesian estimation using a Gibbs sampling…

因子 GARCH 模型的渐近理论AI 解读

This paper investigates the asymptotic theory for a factor GARCH (generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity) model. Sufficient conditions for asymptotic stability and existence of moments are established. These conditions allow for volatility spillover and integrated GARCH. We then show the strong consistency and asymptotic normality of the quasi–maximum likelihood estimator (QMLE) of the model parameters. The results are obtained under the finiteness of the…

一种适用于S估计的模型选择方法AI 解读

Cleaning data or removing some data periods in least squares (LS) regression analysis is not unusual. This practice indicates that a researcher sometimes desires to estimate the parameter value, with which the regression function fits a large fraction of individuals or events in the population (behind the original data set), possibly exhibiting poor fits to some atypical individuals or events. The S-estimators are a class of estimators that are consistent with the…