Climbing the drug staircase: a Bayesian analysis of the initiation of hard drug use
走上毒品阶梯：开始使用烈性毒品的贝叶斯分析
Abstract Since empirical studies have shown that cannabis users are much more likely to initiate hard drug use, a causal linkage has been suggested (‘gateway hypothesis’). However, individual differences in proneness and accessibility to drugs provide alternative non‐causal explanations for the observed drug use pattern. We propose a Bayesian estimation and predictive framework to analyze the effects and relative importance of previous cannabis use, proneness and…