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小型开放经济中的货币政策分析与通胀目标制：VAR 方法AI 解读

Abstract Empirical monetary policy research has increased in the last decade, possibly because deregulation and explicit monetary targets have made monetary policy issues more interesting. In particular, within the inflation targeting framework it has been argued that inflation forecasts can be used as optimal intermediate targets for monetary policy, and the development of empirical models that have good forecasting properties is therefore important. This paper shows that a…

宏观经济理论视角下的应用协整分析AI 解读

Cointegration analyses of macroeconomic time series are often not based on fully specified theoretical models. We use a theoretical model to scrutinize common procedures in applied cointegration analysis. Monte Carlo experiments show that 1) some tests of the cointegration vectors do not work well on series generated by an equilibrium cycle model; (2) cointegration restrictions add little to forecasting; (3) structural VAR models based on weak long-run restrictions seem to…

从宏观经济理论审视应用协整分析AI 解读

Cointegration analyses of macroeconomic time series are often not based on fully specified theoretical models. We use a theoretical model to scrutinize common procedures in applied cointegration analysis. Monte Carlo experiments show that 1) some tests of the cointegration vectors do not work well on series generated by an equilibrium cycle model; (2) cointegration restrictions add little to forecasting; (3) structural VAR models based on weak long-run restrictions seem to…