Likelihood-Based Inference for Partially Observed Epidemics on Dynamic Networks
动态网络上部分观测疫情的似然推断
We propose a generative model and an inference scheme for epidemic processes on dynamic, adaptive contact networks. Network evolution is formulated as a link-Markovian process, which is then coupled to an individual-level stochastic susceptible-infectious-recovered model, to describe the interplay between the dynamics of the disease spread and the contact network underlying the epidemic. A Markov chain Monte Carlo framework is developed for likelihood-based inference from…