每日简报

连续时间回归中的超高维瞬时支撑筛选AI 解读

We study variable screening for high-frequency continuous-time regression, targeting the support of the spot regression coefficient. We establish uniform entrywise bounds for local estimates of the marginal correlation vector and covariate correlation matrix under coordinatewise truncation and finite-variation jumps. Under a local averaged $α$-Hölder condition, the rate is $\{(\log p)/n\}^{α/(2α+1)}$, up to logarithmic factors. This yields sure screening for the marginal…

组合违约概率的广义脉冲响应：模块化框架与地缘政治风险应用AI 解读

Credit stress testing requires impulse responses of portfolio default probabilities, not only macro-financial drivers. We derive closed-form generalized impulse responses for the mean, quantiles (PD-at-Risk), and expected shortfall in a modular framework combining a Bayesian VAR, a Gaussian satellite, and the Merton-Vasicek model underlying Basel IRB regulation. Results extend to any probit-Gaussian mapping of a latent factor. Nonlinearity makes responses depend on…

资产特异的限价订单微观结构噪声：参数估计与经验证据AI 解读

The one-sided microstructure noise model for high-frequency quotes from a limit order book is generalized to capture asset-specific noise tail behaviour. Estimation of a noise tail parameter becomes the key step for inference. This is possible based on moments of the high-frequency returns when specifying a parametric noise model. For a Gamma noise distribution, we establish a central limit theorem for 1-dependent observations from the resulting Gamma difference distribution…

金融机构采用智能体 AI 的治理准备AI 解读

Agentic AI is gaining acceptance in asset management, but governance has not kept pace: 88\% of surveyed finance professionals report no operational governance framework for agentic AI, and only 24 of 75 large U.S. money managers disclosing AI use in Form ADV filings report a formal governance policy. We argue this gap is architectural: governance built for static validation does not survive continuously retrained agentic policies. We propose a four-layer framework (Policy,…

粗糙微观结构噪声的基础AI 解读

Recently, it has been proposed to model the microstructure noise in prices by a continuous-time process with continuous sample paths that are rougher than those of a standard Brownian motion. In this paper, we propose a microstructural model for the tick-by-tick price changes that explicitly separates the permanent price changes from the fleeting price changes due to noise. We show how this model converges to a standard semimartingale model for the permanent price process,…

McKean–Vlasov 模型波动率的拟合优度检验AI 解读

This paper develops a statistical framework for goodness-of-fit testing of volatility functions in i.i.d. McKean-Vlasov stochastic differential equations, which model large diffusion systems with distribution-dependent dynamics. Although integrated volatility estimation for classical SDEs is well established, formal model validation and goodness-of-fit testing for McKean-Vlasov systems remain largely unexplored, particularly in settings combining large particle limits with…

波动率推断的稳健化高斯拟似然方法AI 解读

We consider statistical inference for a class of continuous semimartingale regression models based on high-frequency observations subject to contamination by finite-activity jumps and spike noise. By employing density-power weighting and Hölder-inequality-based normalization, we propose easy-to-implement, robustified versions of the conventional Gaussian quasi-maximum-likelihood estimator that require only a single tuning parameter. We prove their asymptotic mixed normality…