每日简报

随机饱和度设计中簇内与簇间溢出效应的估计AI 解读

Randomized saturation designs are two-stage experiments: they first randomly assign treatment probabilities over the clusters and then randomly assign the treatment to the units within the clusters. The existing literature on randomized saturation designs focuses on estimating within-cluster spillover effects by assuming away between-cluster spillover effects. However, the units may interact across clusters in many practical randomized saturation designs. A leading example…

具有非线性因子结构的面板数据模型估计AI 解读

Panel data models with unobserved heterogeneity in the form of interactive effects standardly assume that the time effects -- or ``common factors'' -- enter linearly. This assumption is restrictive because it concerns an unobserved component of the model, for which a particular functional form is rarely justified. By contrast, linearity in the observable regressors can often be motivated by economic theory or empirical convention. Linearity in the factors has mainly…

利用两阶段核岭回归估计连续处理效应AI 解读

We study the problem of estimating the effect function for a continuous treatment, which maps each treatment value to a population-averaged outcome. A central challenge in this setting is confounding: treatment assignment often depends on covariates, creating selection bias that makes direct regression of the response on treatment unreliable. To address this issue, we propose a two-stage kernel ridge regression method. In the first stage, we learn a model for the response as…

气候分析中含隐藏动态过程的一般因果结构学习AI 解读

Understanding climate dynamics requires going beyond correlations in observational data to uncover the underlying causal process. Latent drivers such as atmospheric processes play a central role in temporal dynamics, while direct causal influences also exist among geographically proximate observed variables. Traditional Causal Representation Learning (CRL) typically focuses on latent factors but overlooks such observable-to-observable causal relations, which limits its…

延迟结局与错峰入组随机实验的设计型随时有效推断AI 解读

Delayed outcomes are ubiquitous in online experimentation: treatment can affect whether an outcome occurs, when it occurs, and its realized value. To accommodate staggered entry while remaining robust to environmental nonstationarity and unit-level heterogeneity, we adopt a design-based perspective and target the sample cumulative reward in each arm as a function of calendar time. Our confidence sequences allow practitioners to continuously monitor the counterfactual…

扰动下基因调控网络发现的可解释神经常微分方程AI 解读

Modern high-throughput biological datasets containing thousands of perturbations enable large-scale discovery of causal graphs that represent regulatory interactions between genes. Differentiable causal graphical models and regression-based methods have been developed to infer gene regulatory networks (GRNs) from interventional datasets. However, existing approaches fail to capture the non-linear dynamics of biological processes such as cellular differentiation. To address…

中介变量受检测定量下限左删失时的因果间接效应评估AI 解读

Causal mediation analysis is essential for disentangling the mechanisms by which investigational therapeutic and preventive agents impact clinical outcomes. However, the measurement of biological mediators is often subject to left-censoring by technical measurement limitations, most commonly an assay's limit of quantification. This form of censoring can pose severe challenges for both identification and estimation of causal mediation estimands, particularly when the…

随机效应的个体化收缩估计AI 解读

This paper develops an approach to random effects estimation and individual-level forecasting in micropanels that targets individual accuracy rather than aggregate performance. The conventional shrinkage methods used in the literature, such as the James-Stein estimator and Empirical Bayes, target aggregate performance and can lead to inaccurate decisions at the individual level. We propose a class of shrinkage estimators with individual weights (IW) that leverage an…

通过数据驱动协变量调整实现随机临床试验的自动化高效无模型推断AI 解读

In 2023, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration issued guidance for adjustment of covariates in randomized clinical trials, emphasizing its role in enhancing precision and power through prognostic baseline variables. Despite its potential, many trials underutilize this method partly due to challenges in pre-specifying optimal baseline covariates and their functional forms. We explore the potential of automated, data-adaptive methods-including stepwise regression, Lasso and…

含未观测混杂因素的贝叶斯结构化中介分析AI 解读

We explore methods to reduce the impact of unobserved confounders on the causal mediation analysis of high-dimensional mediators with spatially smooth structures, such as brain imaging data. The key approach is to incorporate the latent individual effects, which influence the structured mediators, as unobserved confounders in the outcome model, thereby potentially debiasing the mediation effects. We develop BAyesian Structured Mediation analysis with Unobserved confounders…

序贯非单调缺失下的双重稳健 GMM 估计量AI 解读

We study moment-based estimation with two sequentially collected variables subject to non-monotone missingness. The commonly used Missing at Random (MAR) assumption requiring all missingness mechanisms to depend on the same fully observed covariates often fails in such cases. We introduce a sequential MAR assumption that allows asymmetric missingness mechanisms across stages. Based on this assumption, we construct an Augmented Inverse-Probability-Weighted GMM (AIPW-GMM)…

纵向修正治疗政策对健康结局变化率的效应估计AI 解读

Longitudinal data often contains outcomes measured at multiple visits, and scientific interest may lie in quantifying the effect of an intervention on an outcome's rate of change. For example, one may wish to study the progression (or trajectory) of a disease over time under different hypothetical interventions. We extend the longitudinal modified treatment policy (LMTP) methodology to estimate effects of complex, exposure-dependent interventions on rates of change in an…

rd2d：边界断点设计中的因果推断软件AI 解读

Boundary Discontinuity (BD) designs are used in empirical research to learn about causal treatment effects along a continuous assignment boundary defined by a bivariate score. These designs are also known as multi-score regression discontinuity (RD) designs, and include geographic RD designs as a prominent example. This article introduces \pkg{rd2d}, a statistical software package for \proglang{R}, \proglang{Python}, and \proglang{Stata} that implements local polynomial…

边界不连续设计中的估计与推断：基于距离的方法AI 解读

We study nonparametric distance-based (isotropic) local polynomial methods for estimating the boundary average treatment effect curve, a causal functional that captures treatment effect heterogeneity in boundary discontinuity designs. We establish identification, estimation, and inference results both pointwise and uniformly along the treatment assignment boundary. We show that the geometric regularity of the boundary, a one-dimensional manifold, plays a central role in…