每日简报

连接最大似然与最优传输：随机块模型的高效推断与模型选择AI 解读

We study inference in stochastic block models (SBMs) through the lens of optimal transport (OT). We first establish that maximum likelihood variational inference (MLVI) can be interpreted as a semi-relaxed Gromov-Wasserstein (srGW) projection with entropic regularization. While this formulation yields accurate clustering, the entropic regularization prevents transport plans to be sparse, hindering intrinsic model selection. Consequently, we investigate unregularized srGW…

基于多元混合效应模型的动态共表达网络估计AI 解读

High-throughput sequencing technologies have enabled the collection of large-scale longitudinal -omics data, providing new opportunities for studying co-expression networks among molecular nodes such as genes and proteins. However, the high dimensionality and temporal dependence inherent in such data require specialized statistical methods. We propose a novel approach to infer dynamic co-expression networks among features over time (DCENt), where each node (feature) is…

网络 knockoffs：在二元空间中控制错误发现AI 解读

Phenomena such as epidemiological processes, hydrologic systems, social platforms, utility services, and supply chains can be represented as topological networks. A central question about these networks concerns connectivity and the permeability of edges. Dyadic regression and related approaches have been proposed to identify network features associated with pairwise node-level differences. In high-dimensional settings, it is important to control the number of spuriously…

组间不平衡下的风险异质性稳健推断AI 解读

Population-level heterogeneity is ubiquitous in biomedical data, where differences across demographic or clinical subgroups can substantially alter risk patterns. For example, in intensive care unit (ICU) studies, the mortality risk associated with specific admission diagnoses can vary across ethnic groups. Existing approaches for detecting risk heterogeneity are often sensitive to baseline model misspecification and regularization bias, both of which commonly arise in…

Probit 回归中的强对数凹性AI 解读

We show that strong log-concavity emerges in probit regression likelihoods without ridge penalization (i.e. Gaussian priors), unlike for the logistic case. Specifically, we provide: (a) a non-asymptotic characterization of strong log-concavity for fixed designs, similar to that for the existence of the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) and (b) an asymptotic analysis for random designs, in the proportional regime when the sample size $n$ and the number of covariates $d$ grow…

用于诊断事件流高阶时间依赖的超边触发 Hawkes 过程AI 解读

Monte Carlo simulation is used to assess a likelihood-based EM procedure for diagnosing higher-order temporal dependence in multivariate event streams. Multivariate Hawkes processes provide a likelihood-based framework for modelling self- and cross-excitation in continuous-time event streams, but their standard pairwise formulation can confound dense dyadic excitation with genuinely group-triggered temporal dependence. We introduce a hyperedge-triggered Hawkes model in which…

跨情境变化的因果效应的部分识别AI 解读

The estimation of causal effects using quasiexperiments often relies on the use of unusual or serendipitous sources of exogenous variation. When the goal is estimating the same causal effects across many different settings, the same unusual exogenous variation often does not exist in all settings, and the only available form of identification is selection-on-observables, which relies on a conditional indepdendence assumption. Partial identification is especially valuable in…

半参数多层样本选择模型的识别与估计AI 解读

Many selection problems are multilayered: agents first decide whether to participate and then sort among ordered or unordered categories. This paper shows that the sorting layer changes the geometry of identification. Unlike binary selection, in which selection bias can be summarized by a scalar control function, ordered and multinomial sorting generally produce multi-index control functions whose dimension determines the continuous covariate variation needed for…

在生活方式暴露的分子特征构建中考虑因果关系AI 解读

Molecular signatures derived from omics data are increasingly used in epidemiological studies to characterize lifestyle exposures, either as proxies of exposure or to provide insight into disease mechanisms. These signatures are typically constructed by regressing the exposure on high-dimensional omics features. In the literature, an initial univariate screening step has sometimes been applied prior to multivariate modelling, but the causal implications of this choice have…

超越差值：面向比率处理效应的双重稳健元学习器AI 解读

When treatment effects are naturally expressed as ratios -- as in medicine, pricing, and marketing -- the ratio-based CATE $τ(x) = E[Y|W=1,X=x] / E[Y|W=0,X=x]$ is the appropriate estimand. Yet existing estimators either impose a log-linear parametric structure or apply generic regression without robustness guarantees for this functional. We introduce the Q-Learner, which decomposes $τ(x)$ into a product of two odds ratios, reducing ratio-CATE estimation for binary outcomes…

通过处理意向发现混杂因素：一种新的观察研究设计AI 解读

Understanding the effects of interventions is central to scientific progress, with randomized controlled trials (RCTs) regarded as the gold standard for causal inference in many applied fields. However, RCTs are costly, time-consuming, and often constrained by ethical or practical limitations, motivating the need for causal methods able to draw conclusions from observational data. While such data is collected at ever larger scale, making its use for causal inference is often…

具有加性异方差误差的有向无环图学习AI 解读

This paper studies causal discovery for a directed acyclic graph under a structural equation model with additive heteroscedastic errors. We first establish new identifiability results for location-scale noise models, showing that heteroscedasticity can be leveraged to recover causal directions. Based on these insights, we propose a novel iterative procedure, Residual Simultaneous Quantile Estimation (RESQUE), where each iteration consists of a residual-construction stage and…

仅用聚合数据识别个体随机化实验的全局平均处理效应AI 解读

Individualized randomized experiments are central to online platforms for optimizing personalized decisions in complex environments. In two-sided markets, however, standard treatment effect estimation is often invalid due to strong temporal and cross-unit interference, a challenge compounded when only aggregated data are available because of privacy or system constraints. To address these issues, we identify the Global Average Treatment Effect (GATE) using only group-level…

审计并修复表格基础模型在离散选择中的经济有效性AI 解读

Tabular foundation models achieve strong accuracy on choice prediction tasks, but their predictions often violate the economic logic those tasks require: raising a price sometimes increases predicted demand, and implied willingness-to-pay estimates are frequently negative or implausible. We propose a two-stage adapter that embeds foundation model predictions within a utility-maximization framework. In the first stage, we estimate a standard choice model whose parameters are…

利用汇总数据开展具有因果解释的元分析AI 解读

Evidence syntheses and meta-analyses are used to inform clinical practice guidelines and health economic evaluations. However, heterogeneity of treatment effects poses a significant challenge. Conventional meta-analysis addresses heterogeneity through random-effect assumptions, which are not supported by design and lead to estimates that may not apply to any real-world population. Causally-interpretable meta-analysis (CIMA) offers a rigorous framework for specification,…

考虑尚未识别的父节点效应以识别潜因子模型中的直接因果效应AI 解读

We consider linear structural equation models with explicitly modelled latent variables. In such models, observed and latent variables solve linear equations including stochastic noise terms. The goal of our work is to identify the direct causal effects between the observed variables of interest by providing (rational) formulas in the observed covariances. Most prior identification approaches operate in the latent projection framework, where latent variables are projected…

检测两样本汇总数据孟德尔随机化水平多效性的修正 Egger 截距检验AI 解读

The Egger intercept (EI) test is a widely used tool to detect horizontal pleiotropy in two-sample summary-data Mendelian randomization. A significant EI test suggests that either the average pleiotropic effect differs from zero (i.e., directional pleiotropy) or the InSIDE (Instrument Strength Independent of Direct Effect) assumption is violated (i.e., correlated pleiotropy) or both. As such, the EI test provides an assessment of the validity of the instrumental variable…

分布值结局的工具变量回归AI 解读

We develop IV Fréchet regression (IVFR), an instrumental-variable (IV) method for settings where the outcome is an entire distribution. Framing the problem as an IV regression in 2-Wasserstein space, IVFR extends global Fréchet regression to the case with endogenous covariates. IVFR projects IV-weighted quantile curves onto the space of valid distributions and then recovers the corresponding regression coefficient functions. The projection provably reduces the estimation…

超越可交换性：随机试验中考虑分布偏移的外部对照整合AI 解读

Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) are the gold standard for evaluating causal effects but are often costly and difficult to scale; consequently, they are frequently augmented with auxiliary external controls in many applications. Prior approaches for borrowing such data typically rely on exchangeability, under which the external controls are readily usable for inference in the trial population. In practice, however, differences in eligibility criteria, standard of care,…

非线性时间序列中的函数值因果影响AI 解读

Causal discovery in time series is increasingly performed using nonlinear machine-learning models, yet the resulting causal relationships are almost always summarized by scalar edge scores. We argue that this practice obscures the true object learned by nonlinear autoregressive models: a state-dependent function whose effect varies across regimes, magnitudes, and contexts. We formalize function-valued causal influence for additive, contribution-decomposable architectures and…

网络混杂下基于图神经网络的广义 Mundlak 估计量AI 解读

This paper proposes a generalized Mundlak estimator based on graph neural networks (GME-GNN). The estimator is designed to mitigate bias arising from group-level heterogeneity and to accommodate within-group dependence among individuals. Traditional fixed-effects models handle group heterogeneity via group-specific intercepts, but require overly strict linear additivity and intra-group independence assumptions, and are confined to within-group comparisons. Rather than…

利用工具变量交互识别与推断结构加速失效时间模型AI 解读

We study causal inference for time-to-event outcomes under right censoring in the presence of unmeasured confounding. Focusing on structural accelerated failure time models, we develop an identification and inference framework that exploits interactions among instrumental variables. The proposed approach does not rely on classical instrumental variable validity and yields valid causal inference under both valid and invalid instruments, provided that the interaction-based…

修改因果模型以区分暂时与持久的因果效应AI 解读

This paper considers how to classify the effects of interventions in causal models for outcomes and exposures observed over time. First, we demonstrate the limitations of the most common uses of potential outcomes and causal directed acyclic graphs for capturing all possible interventions in a time varying framework, particularly in problems where the key question concerns interventions to maintain or change equilibrium behaviour. Second, we adopt a system and state based…

函数型结局因果效应的半参数推断AI 解读

Difference-in-differences (DiD) is a cornerstone of causal inference, yet extending it to functional outcomes is not a routine scalar generalization; rather, it entails three fundamental challenges in identification, inference, and observation. This paper develops a comprehensive semiparametric inference framework for functional DiD with discretely observed data. First, we define the functional average treatment effect under parallel trends and derive its efficient influence…