每日简报

平均斯勒茨基对称性的不可检验性AI 解读

Slutsky symmetry and negative semidefiniteness are necessary and sufficient conditions for the rationality of demand functions. While the empirical implications of Slutsky negative semidefiniteness in repeated cross-sectional demand data are well understood, the empirical content of Slutsky symmetry remains largely unexplored. This paper takes an important first step toward addressing this gap. We show that the average Slutsky matrix is not identified and that its identified…

样本选择下连续处理的 Lee 界限AI 解读

We study causal inference in sample selection models where a continuous or multivalued treatment affects both outcome and their observability (eg., employment or survey response). We generalized the widely used Lee (2009)'s bounds for binary treatment effects. Our key innovation is a sufficient treatment value assumption that imposes weak restrictions on selection heterogeneity and is implicit in separable threshold-crossing models, including monotone effects on selection.…

GST-UNet：处理时变混杂的时空因果推断神经框架AI 解读

Estimating causal effects from spatiotemporal observational data is essential in public health, environmental science, and policy evaluation, where randomized experiments are often infeasible. Existing approaches, however, either rely on strong structural assumptions or fail to handle key challenges such as interference, spatial confounding, temporal carryover, and time-varying confounding -- where covariates are influenced by past treatments and, in turn, affect future…

数字健康干预中的可重复多臂老虎机算法AI 解读

Adaptive treatment assignment algorithms, such as bandit algorithms, are increasingly used in digital health intervention clinical trials. Frequently, the data collected from these trials is used to conduct causal inference and related data analyses to decide how to refine the intervention, and whether to roll-out the intervention more broadly. This work studies inference for estimands that depend on the adaptive algorithm itself; a simple example is the mean reward under…

短面板中的潜在因子分析AI 解读

We develop a pseudo maximum likelihood method for latent factor analysis in short panels without imposing sphericity nor Gaussianity. We derive an asymptotically uniformly most powerful invariant test for the number of factors. On a large panel of monthly U.S. stock returns, we separate month after month systematic and idiosyncratic risks in short subperiods of bear vs. bull market. We observe an uptrend in the paths of total and idiosyncratic volatilities. The systematic…

凸非参数最小二乘的结构化 Lasso：瑞典配电网络应用AI 解读

We study the problem of variable selection in convex nonparametric least squares (CNLS). Whereas the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (Lasso) is a popular technique for least squares, its variable selection performance is unknown in CNLS problems. In this work, we investigate the performance of the Lasso estimator and find out it is usually unable to select variables efficiently. Exploiting the unique structure of the subgradients in CNLS, we develop a…

结合时空建模与惩罚经验似然的预测型因果推断AI 解读

This study introduces an integrated framework for predictive causal inference designed to overcome limitations inherent in conventional single model approaches. Specifically, we combine a Hidden Markov Model (HMM) for spatial health state estimation with a Multi Task and Multi Graph Convolutional Network (MTGCN) for capturing temporal outcome trajectories. The framework asymmetrically treats temporal and spatial information regarding them as endogenous variables in the…

无需指定网络结构的同伴效应检验AI 解读

This paper proposes an Anderson-Rubin (AR) test for the presence of peer effects in panel data without the need to specify the network structure. The unrestricted model of our test is a linear panel data model of social interactions with dyad-specific peer effect coefficients for all potential peers. The proposed AR test evaluates if these peer effect coefficients are all zero. As the number of peer effect coefficients increases with the sample size, so does the number of…

尖锐回归折点设计中局部处理效应识别与推断的统一框架AI 解读

This paper develops a unified framework for the identification, estimation, and uniform inference of local treatment effects (LTEs) in sharp regression kink designs (RKDs). These LTEs quantify the effect of a marginal change in the treatment at the kink point on various features of the outcome distribution. The identification strategy applies to Hadamard-differentiable functionals of the outcome distribution -- including means, quantiles, and inequality measures -- and…

多元时间序列的稳健谱模糊聚类及其脑电应用AI 解读

Clustering multivariate time series (MTS) is challenging due to non-stationary cross-dependencies, noise contamination, and gradual or overlapping state boundaries. We introduce a robust fuzzy clustering framework in the spectral domain that leverages Kendall's tau-based canonical coherence to extract frequency-specific monotonic relationships across variables. Our method takes advantage of dominant frequency-based cross-regional connectivity patterns to improve clustering…

随机实验中干扰效应的弱假设刻画AI 解读

We give an approach for characterizing interference by lower bounding the number of units whose outcome depends on selected groups of treated individuals, such as depending on the treatment of others, or others who are at least a certain distance away. The approach is applicable to randomized experiments with binary-valued outcomes. Asymptotically conservative point estimates and one-sided confidence intervals may be constructed with no assumptions beyond the known…

污染下高维双重稳健因果推断的惩罚经验似然AI 解读

We propose a doubly robust estimator for the average treatment effect in high dimensional low sample size observational studies, where contamination and model misspecification pose serious inferential challenges. The estimator combines bounded influence estimating equations for outcome modeling with covariate balancing propensity scores for treatment assignment, embedded within a penalized empirical likelihood framework using nonconvex regularization. It satisfies the oracle…

孟德尔随机化因果推断方法：估计对象、识别与推断AI 解读

Mendelian randomization (MR) has become an essential tool for causal inference in biomedical and public health research. By using genetic variants as instrumental variables, MR helps address unmeasured confounding and reverse causation, offering a quasi-experimental framework to evaluate causal effects of modifiable exposures on health outcomes. Despite its promise, MR faces substantial methodological challenges, including invalid instruments, weak instrument bias, and…

结合贝叶斯加性回归树的第二类Tobit样本选择模型AI 解读

This paper introduces Type 2 Tobit Bayesian Additive Regression Trees (TOBART-2). BART can produce accurate individual-specific treatment effect estimates. However, in practice estimates are often biased by sample selection. We extend the Type 2 Tobit sample selection model to account for nonlinearities and model uncertainty by including sums of trees in both the selection and outcome equations. A Dirichlet Process Mixture distribution for the error terms allows for…

存在潜变量时非参数因果效应估计的局部协变量选择AI 解读

Estimating causal effects from nonexperimental data is a fundamental problem in many fields of science. A key component of this task is selecting an appropriate set of covariates for confounding adjustment to avoid bias. Most existing methods for covariate selection often assume the absence of latent variables and rely on learning the global network structure among variables. However, identifying the global structure can be unnecessary and inefficient, especially when our…

存在不依从时的高效自适应实验AI 解读

We study the problem of estimating the average treatment effect (ATE) in adaptive experiments where treatment can only be encouraged -- rather than directly assigned -- via a binary instrumental variable. Building on semiparametric efficiency theory, we derive the efficiency bound for ATE estimation under arbitrary, history-dependent instrument-assignment policies, and show it is minimized by a variance-aware allocation rule that balances outcome noise and compliance…

Chiseling：通过交互式机器学习选择子群并保证推断有效性AI 解读

In regression and causal inference, controlled subgroup selection aims to identify, with inferential guarantees, a subgroup (defined as a subset of the covariate space) on which the average response or treatment effect is above a given threshold. E.g., in a clinical trial, it may be of interest to find a subgroup with a positive average treatment effect. However, existing methods either lack inferential guarantees, heavily restrict the search for the subgroup, or sacrifice…