每日简报

具有低秩与稀疏结构的面板 VAR 联合学习AI 解读

Panel vector auto-regressive (VAR) models are widely used to capture the dynamics of multivariate time series across different subpopulations, where each subpopulation shares a common set of variables. In this work, we propose a panel VAR model with a shared low-rank structure, modulated by subpopulation-specific weights, and complemented by idiosyncratic sparse components. To ensure parameter identifiability, we impose structural constraints that lead to a nonsmooth,…

加权平均处理效应的速率双重稳健估计AI 解读

The weighted average treatment effect (WATE) defines a versatile class of causal estimands for populations characterized by propensity score weights, including the average treatment effect (ATE), treatment effect on the treated (ATT), on controls (ATC), and for the overlap population (ATO). WATE has broad applicability in social and medical research, as many datasets from these fields align with its framework. However, the literature lacks a systematic investigation into the…

小波–SARIMA–Transformer：降雨预测的混合模型AI 解读

This study develops and evaluates a novel hybridWavelet SARIMA Transformer, WST framework to forecast using monthly rainfall across five meteorological subdivisions of Northeast India over the 1971 to 2023 period. The approach employs the Maximal Overlap Discrete Wavelet Transform, MODWT with four wavelet families such as, Haar, Daubechies, Symlet, Coiflet etc. to achieve shift invariant, multiresolution decomposition of the rainfall series. Linear and seasonal components…

兼顾公平性与可解释性的政策学习AI 解读

Fairness and interpretability play an important role in the adoption of decision-making algorithms across many application domains. These requirements are intended to avoid undesirable group differences and to alleviate concerns related to transparency. This paper proposes a framework that integrates fairness and interpretability into algorithmic decision making by combining data transformation with policy trees, a class of interpretable policy functions. The approach is…

利用函数型工具变量校正标量对函数回归偏差的最小二乘方法AI 解读

Instrumental variables are widely used to adjust for measurement error bias when assessing associations of health outcomes with ME prone independent variables. IV approaches addressing ME in longitudinal models are well established, but few methods exist for functional regression. We develop two methods to adjust for ME bias in scalar on function linear models. We regress a scalar outcome on an ME prone functional variable using a functional IV for model identification and…

存在干扰时利用工具变量估计政策相关因果效应AI 解读

Many policy evaluations using instrumental variable (IV) methods include individuals who interact with each other, potentially violating the standard IV assumptions. This paper defines and partially identifies direct and spillover effects with a clear policy-relevant interpretation under relatively mild assumptions on interference. Our framework accommodates both spillovers from the instrument to treatment and from treatment to outcomes and allows for multiple peers. By…

无混杂与重叠性同时失效时基于增广百分位自助法的稳健敏感性分析AI 解读

The identification of causal effects in observational studies typically relies on two standard assumptions: unconfoundedness and overlap. However, both assumptions are often questionable in practice: unconfoundedness is inherently untestable, and overlap may fail in the presence of extreme unmeasured confounding. While various approaches have been developed to address unmeasured confounding and extreme propensity scores separately, few methods accommodate simultaneous…

事件研究中的时变异质性处理效应AI 解读

This paper examines the identification and estimation of heterogeneous treatment effects in event studies, emphasizing the importance of both lagged dependent variables and treatment effect heterogeneity. We show that omitting lagged dependent variables can induce omitted variable bias in the estimated time-varying treatment effects. We develop a novel semiparametric approach based on a short-T dynamic linear panel model with correlated random coefficients, where the…

协变量调整的限制平均生存时间群序贯比较AI 解读

The restricted mean survival time (RMST) is the mean survival time in the study population followed up to a specific time point, and is simply the area under the survival curve up to the specific time point. The difference between two RMSTs quantifies the group difference in a time scale by measuring the integrated difference between survival curves in the two treatment groups. This paper develops a group sequential (GS) test of comparing two RMSTs up to a restriction time…

利用工具变量处理不可忽略缺失数据的统计方法综述AI 解读

Nonignorable missing data, where the probability of missingness depends on unobserved values, presents a significant challenge in statistical analysis. Traditional methods often rely on strong parametric assumptions that are difficult to verify and may lead to biased estimates if misspecified. Recent advances have introduced the concept of a nonresponse instrument or shadow variable as a powerful tool to enhance model identifiability without requiring full parametric…

小型开放新兴经济体的预测：来自泰国的证据AI 解读

Forecasting inflation in small open economies is difficult because limited time series and strong external exposures create an imbalance between few observations and many potential predictors. We study this challenge using Thailand as a representative case, combining more than 450 domestic and international indicators. We evaluate modern Bayesian shrinkage and factor models, including Horseshoe regressions, factor-augmented autoregressions, factor-augmented VARs, dynamic…

面板数据的超阈值峰值建模：两层分组广义帕累托回归AI 解读

Panel data arise in a wide range of application areas, and developing modelling methods for extreme values under such a setup is essential for reliable risk assessment and management. When choosing to model the marginal distributions of univariate extremes, one may wish to balance the flexibility in capturing the heterogeneity among margins and the efficiency of estimation. This can be achieved through a combination of regression techniques and assuming a latent group…

非可分三角模型中个体处理效应分布的推断AI 解读

In this paper, we develop inference methods for the distribution of heterogeneous individual treatment effects (ITEs) in the nonseparable triangular model with a binary endogenous treatment and a binary instrument of Vuong and Xu (2017) and Feng, Vuong, and Xu (2019). We focus on the estimation of the cumulative distribution function (CDF) of the ITE, which can be used to address a wide range of practically important questions such as inference on the proportion of…

什么是概率测度的良好匹配？传输映射的反事实视角AI 解读

Coupling probability measures lies at the core of many problems in statistics and machine learning, from domain adaptation to transfer learning and causal inference. Yet, even when restricted to deterministic transports, such couplings are not identifiable: two atomless marginals admit infinitely many transport maps. The common recourse to optimal transport, motivated by cost minimization and cyclical monotonicity, obscures the fact that several distinct notions of…

若干随机环境马尔可夫链模型的混合性质AI 解读

Markov chains in random environments (MCREs) have recently attracted renewed interest, as these processes naturally arise in many applications, such as econometrics and machine learning. Although specific asymptotic results, such as the law of the large numbers and central limit theorems, have been obtained for some of these models, their annealed dependence properties, such as strong mixing properties, are not well understood in general. We derive strong mixing properties…

利用企业调查、最大熵与带状多面体估计产业异质性AI 解读

This study introduces a novel framework for estimating industrial heterogeneity by integrating maximum entropy (ME) estimation of production functions with Zonotope-based measures. Traditional production function estimations often rely on restrictive parametric models, failing to capture firm behavior under uncertainty. This research addresses these limitations by applying Hang K. Ryu's ME method to estimate production functions using World Bank Enterprise Survey (WBES) data…

利用状态切换方法改进标普500波动率预测AI 解读

Accurate prediction of financial market volatility is critical for risk management, derivatives pricing, and investment strategy. In this study, we propose a multitude of regime-switching methods to improve the prediction of S&P 500 volatility by capturing structural changes in the market across time. We use eleven years of SPX data, from May 1st, 2014 to May 27th, 2025, to compute daily realized volatility (RV) from 5-minute intraday log returns, adjusted for irregular…

大量弱无效工具变量下右删失结局的半参数因果推断AI 解读

We propose a semiparametric framework for causal inference with right-censored survival outcomes and many weak invalid instruments, motivated by Mendelian randomization in biobank studies where classical methods may fail. We adopt an accelerated failure time model and construct a moment condition based on augmented inverse probability of censoring weighting, incorporating both uncensored and censored observations. Under a heteroscedasticity-based condition on the treatment…

基于深度学习的双重稳健格兰杰因果检验AI 解读

Granger causality is popular for analyzing time series data in many applications from natural science to social science including genomics, neuroscience, economics, and finance. Consequently, the Granger causality test has become one of the main concerns of the econometrician for decades. Taking advantage of the theoretical breakthroughs in deep learning in recent years, we propose a doubly robust Granger causality test (DRGCT). Our method offers several key advantages. The…

孟德尔随机化因果推断方法：估计对象、识别与推断AI 解读

Mendelian randomization (MR) has become an essential tool for causal inference in biomedical and public health research. By using genetic variants as instrumental variables, MR helps address unmeasured confounding and reverse causation, offering a quasi-experimental framework to evaluate causal effects of modifiable exposures on health outcomes. Despite its promise, MR faces substantial methodological challenges, including invalid instruments, weak instrument bias, and…

高效且易用的离散选择实验：R 包 DCEtoolAI 解读

Discrete Choice Experiments (DCEs) are widely used to elicit preferences for products or services by analyzing choices among alternatives described by their attributes. The quality of the insights obtained from a DCE heavily depends on the properties of its experimental design. While early DCEs often relied on linear criteria such as orthogonality, these approaches were later found to be inappropriate for discrete choice models, which are inherently non-linear. As a result,…

等误差方差结构方程模型的一致贝叶斯因果发现AI 解读

We consider the problem of recovering the true causal structure among a set of variables, generated by a linear acyclic structural equation model (SEM) with the error terms being independent, not necessarily Gaussian, and having equal variances. It is well-known that the true underlying directed acyclic graph (DAG) encoding the causal structure is uniquely identifiable under this assumption. Interestingly, in this setting, it further holds that the sum of minimum expected…

因果推断中的外推正则化AI 解读

Many common estimators in machine learning and causal inference are linear smoothers, where the prediction is a weighted average of the training outcomes. Some estimators, such as ordinary least squares and kernel ridge regression, allow for arbitrarily negative weights, which improve feature imbalance but often at the cost of increased dependence on parametric modeling assumptions and higher variance. By contrast, estimators like importance weighting and random forests…

单侧不依从聚类随机试验中的潜在依从性贝叶斯建模AI 解读

In pragmatic cluster randomized controlled trials (PCRCTs), healthcare providers are randomized while both providers and patients may deviate from the assigned intervention. In many PCRCTs, cluster-level implementation is measured using multiple continuous metrics, while individual compliance is recorded as a binary indicator. Standard complier average causal effect (CACE) estimands focus on individual-level compliance and do not account for heterogeneity in implementation…