每日简报

面板与网络数据中带一般固定效应的二元 Logit 选择模型AI 解读

This paper systematically analyzes and reviews identification strategies for binary choice logit models with fixed effects in panel and network data settings. We examine both static and dynamic models with general fixed-effect structures, including individual effects, time trends, and two-way or dyadic effects. A key challenge is the incidental parameter problem, which arises from the increasing number of fixed effects as the sample size grows. We explore two main strategies…

具有 S-vine Copula 结构的近似因子模型AI 解读

We propose a novel framework for approximate factor models that integrates an S-vine copula structure to capture complex dependencies among common factors. Our estimation procedure proceeds in two steps: first, we apply principal component analysis (PCA) to extract the factors; second, we employ maximum likelihood estimation that combines kernel density estimation for the margins with an S-vine copula to model the dependence structure. Jointly fitting the S-vine copula with…

Dirichlet–Laplace 先验模拟方法的一则说明AI 解读

Bhattacharya et al. (2015, Journal of the American Statistical Association 110(512): 1479-1490) introduce a novel prior, the Dirichlet-Laplace (DL) prior, and propose a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method to simulate posterior draws under this prior in a conditionally Gaussian setting. The original algorithm samples from conditional distributions in the wrong order, i.e., it does not correctly sample from the joint posterior distribution of all latent variables. This note…

重建哥伦比亚地方劳动指标：机器学习与深度学习的整合方法AI 解读

This study proposes a unified multi-stage framework to reconstruct consistent monthly and annual labor indicators for all 33 Colombian departments from 1993 to 2025. The approach integrates temporal disaggregation, time-series splicing and interpolation, statistical learning, and institutional covariates to estimate seven key variables: employment, unemployment, labor force participation (PEA), inactivity, working-age population (PET), total population, and informality rate,…

矩阵值时间序列的因子模型：非平稳性与协整AI 解读

In this paper, we consider the nonstationary matrix-valued time series with common stochastic trends. Unlike the traditional factor analysis which flattens matrix observations into vectors, we adopt a matrix factor model in order to fully explore the intrinsic matrix structure in the data, allowing interaction between the row and column stochastic trends, and subsequently improving the estimation convergence. It also reduces the computation complexity in estimation. The main…

统计方法：基本概念、解释与注意事项AI 解读

The study of associations and their causal explanations is a central research activity whose methodology varies tremendously across fields. Even within specialized subfields, comparisons across textbooks and journals reveals that the basics are subject to considerable variation and controversy. This variation is often obscured by the singular viewpoints presented within textbooks and journal guidelines, which may be deceptively written as if the norms they adopt are…

贝叶斯神经网络辅助多处理混合治愈生存模型：儿科肿瘤应用AI 解读

Estimating covariate-conditional treatment effects in multi-arm oncology studies is complicated when treatment arms have common distributional features and a non-negligible fraction of patients achieve long-term remission. We propose a joint mixture cure model with covariate-dependent mixtures of log-normal kernels with treatment-specific inclusions. Both linear and neural-network-assisted non-linear covariate links are proposed. Specifically, the susceptible survival…

平行趋势假设下复杂处理设计的处理效应估计AI 解读

This paper considers the identification of dynamic treatment effects with panel data, in complex designs where the treatment may not be binary and may not be absorbing. We first show that under no-anticipation and parallel-trends assumptions, we can identify event-study effects comparing outcomes under the actual treatment path and under the status-quo path where all units would have kept their period-one treatment throughout the panel. Those effects can be helpful to…

Chatterjee 图相关系数的偏差校正AI 解读

Azadkia and Chatterjee (2021) recently introduced a simple nearest neighbor (NN) graph-based correlation coefficient that consistently detects both independence and functional dependence. Specifically, it approximates a measure of dependence that equals 0 if and only if the variables are independent, and 1 if and only if they are functionally dependent. However, this NN estimator includes a bias term that may vanish at a rate slower than root-$n$, preventing root-$n$ consiste…

未观测混杂下的可微循环因果发现AI 解读

Understanding causal relationships between variables is fundamental across scientific disciplines. Most causal discovery algorithms rely on two key assumptions: (i) all variables are observed, and (ii) the underlying causal graph is acyclic. While these assumptions simplify theoretical analysis, they are often violated in real-world systems, such as biological networks. Existing methods that account for confounders either assume linearity or struggle with scalability. To…

面板因果模型中未测混杂的识别诊断：两阶段 LM–Wald 方法AI 解读

Panel data are widely used in political science to draw causal inferences. However, these models often rely on the strong and untested assumption of sequential ignorability--that no unmeasured variables influence both the independent and outcome variables across time. Grounded in psychometric literature on latent variable modeling, this paper introduces the Two-Stage LM-Wald (2SLW) approach, a diagnostic tool that extends the Lagrange Multiplier (LM) and Wald tests to detect…

纵向修正治疗政策对健康结局变化率的效应估计AI 解读

Longitudinal data often contains outcomes measured at multiple visits, and scientific interest may lie in quantifying the effect of an intervention on an outcome's rate of change. For example, one may wish to study the progression (or trajectory) of a disease over time under different hypothetical interventions. We extend the longitudinal modified treatment policy (LMTP) methodology to estimate effects of complex, exposure-dependent interventions on rates of change in an…

综合证据：利用在线实验数据汇集选择处理方案AI 解读

Randomized experiments are the gold standard for causal inference but face significant challenges in business applications, including limited traffic allocation, the need for heterogeneous treatment effect estimation, and the complexity of managing overlapping experiments. These factors lead to high variability in treatment effect estimates, making data-driven policy roll out difficult. To address these issues, we introduce the data pooling treatment roll-out (DPTR)…

通过剖面化迁移学习消除混杂AI 解读

Unmeasured confounders are a major source of bias in regression-based effect estimation and causal inference. In this paper, we propose a new profiled transfer learning framework, ProTrans, to address confounding effects in the target dataset, when additional source datasets with similar confounding structures are available. We introduce the concept of profiled residuals to characterize the shared confounding patterns between source and target datasets. By incorporating…

计数型中间变量的主分层与 BART：生育对女性就业的效应AI 解读

Estimating the causal effect of fertility on women's employment is challenging because fertility and labour-market decisions are jointly determined. Instrumental-variable strategies are widely used, but credible instruments are rare and their validity often depends on covariates. Two-stage least squares, the dominant implementation, does not flexibly accommodate covariate-dependent instrument validity and is poorly suited to count-valued treatment and effect heterogeneity…

高维矩阵值时间序列的时空自回归AI 解读

Motivated by predicting intraday trading volume curves, we consider two spatio-temporal autoregressive models for matrix time series, in which each column may represent daily trading volume curve of one asset, and each row captures synchronized 5-minute volume intervals across multiple assets. While traditional matrix time series focus mainly on temporal evolution, our approach incorporates both spatial and temporal dynamics, enabling simultaneous analysis of interactions…

固定时间维度下异质性面板模型的双向均值组估计AI 解读

We consider a correlated random coefficient panel data model with two-way fixed effects and interactive fixed effects in a fixed T framework. We propose a two-way mean group (TW-MG) estimator for the expected value of the slope coefficient and propose a leave-one-out jackknife method for valid inference. We also consider a pooled estimator and provide a Hausman-type test for poolability. Simulations demonstrate the excellent performance of our estimators and inference…

多变量孟德尔随机化的一种更稳健方法AI 解读

Multivariable Mendelian randomization (MVMR) uses genetic variants as instrumental variables to infer the direct effects of multiple exposures on an outcome. However, unlike univariable Mendelian randomization, MVMR often faces greater challenges with many weak instruments, which can lead to bias not necessarily toward zero and inflation of type I errors. In this work, we introduce a new asymptotic regime that allows exposures to have varying degrees of instrument strength,…

评估时变调节作用的因果偏离效应元学习方法AI 解读

Advances in wearable technologies and health interventions delivered by smartphones have greatly increased the accessibility of mobile health (mHealth) interventions. Micro-randomized trials (MRTs) are designed to assess the effectiveness of the mHealth intervention and introduce a novel class of causal estimands called "causal excursion effects." These estimands enable the evaluation of how intervention effects change over time and are influenced by individual…

含噪声、非光滑与非凸矩条件模型的估计AI 解读

A practical challenge for structural estimation is the requirement to accurately minimize a sample objective function which is often non-smooth, non-convex, or both. This paper proposes a simple algorithm designed to find accurate solutions without performing an exhaustive search. It augments each iteration from a new Gauss-Newton algorithm with a grid search step. A finite sample analysis derives its optimization and statistical properties simultaneously using only…

治疗不依从下因果生存分析的多重稳健估计AI 解读

Comparative effectiveness research frequently addresses a time-to-event outcome and can require unique considerations in the presence of treatment noncompliance. Motivated by the challenges in addressing noncompliance in the ADAPTABLE pragmatic clinical trial, we develop a multiply robust estimator to estimate the principal survival causal effects under the principal ignorability and monotonicity. The multiply robust estimator is consistent even if one, and sometimes two, of…

PanelMatch：时间序列截面数据因果推断的匹配方法AI 解读

Analyzing time-series cross-sectional (also known as longitudinal or panel) data is an important process across a number of fields, including the social sciences, economics, finance, and medicine. PanelMatch is an R package that implements a set of tools enabling researchers to apply matching methods for causal inference with time-series cross-sectional data. Relative to other commonly used methods for longitudinal analyses, like regression with fixed effects, the…

检测 p 值操纵的检验功效AI 解读

A flourishing empirical literature investigates the prevalence of $p$-hacking based on the distribution of $p$-values across studies. Interpreting results in this literature requires a careful understanding of the power of methods for detecting $p$-hacking. We theoretically study the implications of likely forms of $p$-hacking on the distribution of $p$-values to understand the power of tests for detecting it. Power can be low and depends crucially on the $p$-hacking…

足球主场优势有多重要：英超联赛的因果推断分析AI 解读

In many sports, it is commonly believed that the home team has an advantage over the visiting team, known as the home field advantage. Yet its causal effect on team performance is largely unknown. In this paper, we propose a novel causal inference approach to study the causal effect of home field advantage in English Premier League. We develop a hierarchical causal model and show that both league level and team level causal effects are identifiable and can be conveniently…