每日简报

《缺失数据模型的因果与反事实视角》讨论AI 解读

We congratulate Nabi et al. (2022) on their impressive and insightful paper, which illustrates the benefits of using causal/counterfactual perspectives and tools in missing data problems. This paper represents an important approach to missing-not-at-random (MNAR) problems, exploiting nonparametric independence restrictions for identification, as opposed to parametric/semiparametric models, or resorting to sensitivity analysis. Crucially, the authors represent these…

循环线性因果模型的特征 imset 与 Chickering 理想AI 解读

Two directed graphs are called covariance equivalent if they induce the same set of covariance matrices, up to a Lebesgue measure zero set, on the random variables of their associated linear structural equation models. For acyclic graphs, covariance equivalence is characterized both structurally, via essential graphs and characteristic imsets, and transformationally, through sequences of covered edge flips. However, when cycles are allowed, only a transformational…

多重中介的因果中介分析：模拟方法AI 解读

Analyses of causal mediation often involve exposure-induced confounders or, relatedly, multiple mediators. In such applications, researchers aim to estimate a variety of different quantities, including interventional direct and indirect effects, multivariate natural direct and indirect effects, and/or path-specific effects. This study introduces a general approach to estimating all these quantities by simulating potential outcomes from a series of distribution models for…

利用预训练表示调整混杂AI 解读

There is growing interest in extending average treatment effect (ATE) estimation to incorporate non-tabular data, such as images and text, which may act as sources of confounding. Neglecting these effects risks biased results and flawed scientific conclusions. However, incorporating non-tabular data necessitates sophisticated feature extractors, often in combination with ideas of transfer learning. In this work, we investigate how latent features from pre-trained neural…

时间序列汇总因果图中调整方法的完整刻画AI 解读

The identifiability problem for interventions aims at assessing whether the total causal effect can be written with a do-free formula, and thus be estimated from observational data only. We study this problem, considering multiple interventions, in the context of time series when only an abstraction of the true causal graph, in the form of a summary causal graph, is available. We propose in particular both necessary and sufficient conditions for the adjustment criterion,…

时间序列汇总因果图中基于共同后门集合的可识别性AI 解读

The identifiability problem for interventions aims at assessing whether the total effect of some given interventions can be written with a do-free formula, and thus be computed from observational data only. We study this problem, considering multiple interventions and multiple effects, in the context of time series when only abstractions of the true causal graph in the form of summary causal graphs are available. We focus in this study on identifiability by a common backdoor…

少量处理单位下预测区间、尖锐原假设检验与已实现处理效应推断的关系AI 解读

We study how inference methods for settings with few treated units that rely on treatment effect homogeneity extend to alternative inferential targets when treatment effects are heterogeneous -- namely, tests of sharp null hypotheses, inference on realized treatment effects, and prediction intervals. We show that inference methods for these alternative targets are deeply interconnected: they are either equivalent or become equivalent under additional assumptions. Our results…

图形因果推断算法开发的线性时间基础操作AI 解读

We introduce CIfly, a framework for efficient algorithmic primitives in graphical causal inference that isolates reachability as a reusable core operation. It builds on the insight that many causal reasoning tasks can be reduced to reachability in purpose-built state-space graphs that can be constructed on the fly during traversal. We formalize a rule table schema for specifying such algorithms and prove they run in linear time. We establish CIfly as a more efficient…

缺失特定独立性与机制变化下的因果推断AI 解读

The recovery of causal effects in structural models with missing data often relies on $m$-graphs, which assume that missingness mechanisms do not directly influence substantive variables. Yet, in many real-world settings, missing data can alter decision-making processes, as the absence of key information may affect downstream actions and states. To overcome this limitation, we introduce $lm$-SCMs and $lm$-graphs, which extend $m$-graphs by integrating a label set that…

超越马尔可夫等价类的稳健因果效应识别AI 解读

Causal effect identification typically requires a fully specified causal graph, which can be difficult to obtain in practice. We provide a sufficient criterion for identifying causal effects from a candidate set of Markov equivalence classes with added background knowledge, which represents cases where determining the causal graph up to a single Markov equivalence class is challenging. Such cases can happen, for example, when the untestable assumptions (e.g. faithfulness)…

条件矩限制的双重机器学习：工具变量回归、近端因果学习及拓展AI 解读

Solving conditional moment restrictions (CMRs) is a key problem considered in statistics, causal inference, and econometrics, where the aim is to solve for a function of interest that satisfies some conditional moment equalities. Specifically, many techniques for causal inference, such as instrumental variable (IV) regression and proximal causal learning (PCL), are CMR problems. Most CMR estimators use a two-stage approach, where the first-stage estimation is directly…

因果建模导论AI 解读

This tutorial provides a concise introduction to modern causal modeling by integrating potential outcomes and graphical methods. We motivate causal questions such as counterfactual reasoning under interventions and define binary treatments and potential outcomes. We discuss causal effect measures-including average treatment effects on the treated and on the untreated-and choices of effect scales for binary outcomes. We derive identification in randomized experiments under…

容许多个无效代理变量的强化近端因果推断AI 解读

Causal inference from observational data often relies on the assumption of no unmeasured confounding, an assumption frequently violated in practice due to unobserved or poorly measured covariates. Proximal causal inference (PCI) offers a promising framework for addressing unmeasured confounding using a pair of outcome and treatment confounding proxies. However, existing PCI methods typically assume all specified proxies are valid, which may be unrealistic and is untestable…

无需可逆性的生产函数估计：不完全竞争环境与需求冲击AI 解读

We advance the proxy variable approach to production function estimation. We show that the invertibility assumption at its heart is testable. We characterize what goes wrong if invertibility fails and what can still be done. We show that rethinking how the estimation procedure is implemented either eliminates or mitigates the bias that arises if invertibility fails. In particular, a simple change to the first step of the estimation procedure provides a first-order bias…

联合分位数收缩：面向非交叉贝叶斯分位数模型的状态空间方法AI 解读

Crossing of fitted conditional quantiles is a prevalent problem for quantile regression models. We propose a new Bayesian modelling framework that penalises multiple quantile regression functions toward the desired non-crossing space. We achieve this by estimating multiple quantiles jointly with a prior on variation across quantiles, a fused shrinkage prior with quantile adaptivity. The posterior is derived from a decision-theoretic general Bayes perspective, whose form…

估计异质性处理效应的混合元学习器AI 解读

Estimating conditional average treatment effects (CATE) from observational data involves modeling decisions that differ from supervised learning, particularly concerning how to regularize model complexity. Previous approaches can be grouped into two primary "meta-learner" paradigms that impose distinct inductive biases. Indirect meta-learners first fit and regularize separate potential outcome (PO) models and then estimate CATE by taking their difference, whereas direct…

不让任何人受损：具有遗憾厌恶的政策定向AI 解读

While the importance of personalized policymaking is widely recognized, fully personalized implementation remains rare in practice, often due to legal, fairness or cost concerns. We study the problem of policy targeting for a regret-averse planner when training data gives a rich set of observables while the assignment rules can only depend on its subset. Our regret-averse criterion reflects a planner's concern about regret inequality across the population. This, in general,…

极端与未观测数据中的处理效应估计AI 解读

Causal effect estimation seeks to determine the impact of an intervention from observational data. However, the existing causal inference literature primarily addresses treatment effects on frequently occurring events. But what if we are interested in estimating the effects of a policy intervention whose benefits, while potentially important, can only be observed and measured in rare yet impactful events, such as extreme climate events? The standard causal inference…

自回归超图模型AI 解读

Traditional graph representations are insufficient for modelling real-world phenomena involving multi-entity interactions, such as collaborative projects or protein complexes, necessitating the use of hypergraphs. While hypergraphs preserve the intrinsic nature of such complex relationships, existing models often overlook temporal evolution in relational data. To address this, we introduce a first-order autoregressive (i.e. AR(1)) model for dynamic non-uniform hypergraphs.…

高效的双重差分与事件研究估计量AI 解读

This paper investigates efficient Difference-in-Differences (DiD) and Event Study (ES) estimation using short panel data sets within the heterogeneous treatment effect framework, free from parametric functional form assumptions and allowing for variation in treatment timing. We provide an equivalent characterization of the DiD potential outcome model using sequential conditional moment restrictions on observables, which shows that the DiD identification assumptions typically…

恰好识别模型中弱工具变量稳健推断程序的实证比较AI 解读

Instrumental variable (IV) regression is recognized as one of the five core methods for causal inference, as identified by Angrist and Pischke (2008). This paper compares two leading approaches to inference under weak identification for just-identified IV models: the classical Anderson-Rubin (AR) procedure and the recently popular tF method proposed by Lee et al. (2022). Using replication data from the American Economic Review (AER) and Monte Carlo simulation experiments, we…

超越效用：将眼动、皮肤电导与心率纳入出行行为模型AI 解读

Choice models for large-scale applications have historically relied on economic theories (e.g. utility maximisation) that establish relationships between the choices of individuals, their characteristics, and the attributes of the alternatives. In a parallel stream, choice models in cognitive psychology have focused on modelling the decision-making process, but typically in controlled scenarios. Recent research developments have attempted to bridge the modelling paradigms,…

倾向得分加权中的欠平滑LASSO与合成负对照暴露偏差检测AI 解读

The propensity score (PS) is often used to control for large numbers of covariates in high-dimensional healthcare database studies. The least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) has become the most widely used tool for fitting large-scale PS models in these settings. LASSO uses L1 regularized regression to prevent overfitting by shrinking coefficients toward zero (setting some exactly to zero). The degree of regularization is typically selected using…

测地空间中函数型数据与随机对象的回归不连续设计AI 解读

Regression discontinuity designs (RDDs) are widely used for causal inference in observational studies with cutoff-based treatment assignment, primarily for Euclidean outcomes. We propose the geodesic regression discontinuity design (GRDD), which extends RDDs to complex non-Euclidean outcomes, including networks, compositional data, functional data, and other random objects in geodesic metric spaces. Since algebraic operations are unavailable in such spaces, we define the…