每日简报

含长期与短期波动成分的 GARCH 期权估值：保证方差为正的新框架AI 解读

Christoffersen, Jacobs, Ornthanalai, and Wang (2008) (CJOW) proposed an improved Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) model for valuing European options, where the return volatility is comprised of two distinct components. Empirical studies indicate that the model developed by CJOW outperforms widely-used single-component GARCH models and provides a superior fit to options data than models that combine conditional heteroskedasticity with…

具有两个波动成分和两个驱动因子的 GARCH 模型AI 解读

We introduce a novel GARCH model that integrates two sources of uncertainty to better capture the rich, multi-component dynamics often observed in the volatility of financial assets. This model provides a quasi closed-form representation of the characteristic function for future log-returns, from which semi-analytical formulas for option pricing can be derived. A theoretical analysis is conducted to establish sufficient conditions for strict stationarity and geometric…

从熵的视角估计波动率AI 解读

In the present paper, we first revisit the volatility estimation approach proposed by N. Kunitomo and S. Sato, and second, we show that the volatility estimator proposed by P. Malliavin and M.E. Mancino can be understood in a unified way by the approach. Third, we introduce an alternative estimator that might overcome the inconsistency caused by the microstructure noise of the initial observation.

基于保形预测的投资组合选择AI 解读

This study examines portfolio selection using predictive models for portfolio returns. Portfolio selection is a fundamental task in finance, and a variety of methods have been developed to achieve this goal. For instance, the mean-variance approach constructs portfolios by balancing the trade-off between the mean and variance of asset returns, while the quantile-based approach optimizes portfolios by considering tail risk. These methods often depend on distributional…

具有确定性时变截距的新 GARCH 模型AI 解读

It is common for long financial time series to exhibit gradual change in the unconditional volatility. We propose a new model that captures this type of nonstationarity in a parsimonious way. The model augments the volatility equation of a standard GARCH model by a deterministic time-varying intercept. It captures structural change that slowly affects the amplitude of a time series while keeping the short-run dynamics constant. We parameterize the intercept as a linear…