每日简报

具有潜在大量协变量的断点回归设计AI 解读

This paper studies the case of possibly high-dimensional covariates in the regression discontinuity design (RDD) analysis. In particular, we propose estimation and inference methods for the RDD models with covariate selection which perform stably regardless of the number of covariates. The proposed methods combine the local approach using kernel weights with $\ell_{1}$-penalization to handle high-dimensional covariates. We provide theoretical and numerical results which…

收入增长中可能不存在的总体矩AI 解读

The literature often employs moment-based earnings risk measures like variance, skewness, and kurtosis. However, under heavy-tailed distributions, these moments may not exist in the population. Our empirical analysis reveals that population kurtosis, skewness, and variance often do not exist for the conditional distribution of earnings growth. This challenges moment-based analyses. We propose robust conditional Pareto exponents as novel earnings risk measures, developing…

受损数据下的因果推断：测量误差、缺失、离散化与差分隐私AI 解读

The US Census Bureau will deliberately corrupt data sets derived from the 2020 US Census, enhancing the privacy of respondents while potentially reducing the precision of economic analysis. To investigate whether this trade-off is inevitable, we formulate a semiparametric model of causal inference with high dimensional corrupted data. We propose a procedure for data cleaning, estimation, and inference with data cleaning-adjusted confidence intervals. We prove consistency and…

causalAssembly：生成用于因果发现基准评估的真实感生产数据AI 解读

Algorithms for causal discovery have recently undergone rapid advances and increasingly draw on flexible nonparametric methods to process complex data. With these advances comes a need for adequate empirical validation of the causal relationships learned by different algorithms. However, for most real data sources true causal relations remain unknown. This issue is further compounded by privacy concerns surrounding the release of suitable high-quality data. To help address…

借助独立成分分析理解高斯线性时不变系统的干预可识别性AI 解读

We investigate the relationship between system identification and intervention design in dynamical systems. While previous research demonstrated how identifiable representation learning methods, such as Independent Component Analysis (ICA), can reveal cause-effect relationships, it relied on a passive perspective without considering how to collect data. Our work shows that in Gaussian Linear Time-Invariant (LTI) systems, the system parameters can be identified by introducing…

潜在节点与结构化噪声下网络动态系统的因果结构学习AI 解读

This paper considers learning the hidden causal network of a linear networked dynamical system (NDS) from the time series data at some of its nodes -- partial observability. The dynamics of the NDS are driven by colored noise that generates spurious associations across pairs of nodes, rendering the problem much harder. To address the challenge of noise correlation and partial observability, we assign to each pair of nodes a feature vector computed from the time series data…

生存分析中使用合成控制的警示AI 解读

Synthetic control (SC) methods have gained rapid popularity in economics recently, where they have been applied in the context of inferring the effects of treatments on standard continuous outcomes assuming linear input-output relations. In medical applications, conversely, survival outcomes are often of primary interest, a setup in which both commonly assumed data-generating processes (DGPs) and target parameters are different. In this paper, we therefore investigate…

利用核 Stein 差异估计反事实密度AI 解读

Causal effects are usually studied in terms of the means of counterfactual distributions, which may be insufficient in many scenarios. Given a class of densities known up to normalizing constants, we propose to model counterfactual distributions by minimizing kernel Stein discrepancies in a doubly robust manner. This enables the estimation of counterfactuals over large classes of distributions while exploiting the desired double robustness. We present a theoretical analysis…