每日简报

分布式保密数据上的条件平均处理效应估计AI 解读

The estimation of conditional average treatment effects (CATEs) is an important topic in many scientific fields. CATEs can be estimated with high accuracy if data distributed across multiple parties are centralized. However, it is difficult to aggregate such data owing to confidentiality or privacy concerns. To address this issue, we propose data collaboration double machine learning, a method for estimating CATE models using privacy-preserving fusion data constructed from…

机器学习、偏微分方程与统计中的再生核方法AI 解读

This monograph develops a unified, application-driven framework for kernel methods grounded in reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces (RKHS) and optimal transport (OT). Part I lays the theoretical and numerical foundations on positive-definite kernels; discrete and continuous RKHS; kernel engineering and scaling maps; error assessment via kernel discrepancy/maximum mean discrepancy (MMD); and a systematic operator view of kernels. In this viewpoint, projection, gradient,…

平行趋势不成立时，双重差分分析前匹配的收益与成本AI 解读

The Difference in Difference (DiD) estimator is a popular estimator built on the "parallel trends" assumption, which is an assertion that the treatment group, absent treatment, would change "similarly" to the control group over time. To bolster such a claim, one might generate a comparison group, via matching, that is similar to the treated group with respect to pre-treatment outcomes and/or pre-treatment covariates. Unfortunately, as has been previously pointed out, this…

个体随机化设计下利用邻域干扰的低阶交互结构AI 解读

Network interference, where the outcome of an individual is affected by the treatment assignment of those in their social network, is pervasive in real-world settings. However, it poses a challenge to estimating causal effects. We consider the task of estimating the total treatment effect (TTE), or the difference between the average outcomes of the population when everyone is treated versus when no one is, under network interference. Under a Bernoulli randomized design, we…

动态二元选择面板数据模型的半参数估计AI 解读

We propose a new approach to the semiparametric analysis of panel data binary choice models with fixed effects and dynamics (lagged dependent variables). The model we consider has the same random utility framework as in Honore and Kyriazidou (2000). We demonstrate that, with additional serial dependence conditions on the process of deterministic utility and tail restrictions on the error distribution, the (point) identification of the model can proceed in two steps, and only…

多变量概率预测的 CRPS 学习及日前电价应用AI 解读

This paper presents a new method for combining (or aggregating or ensembling) multivariate probabilistic forecasts, considering dependencies between quantiles and marginals through a smoothing procedure that allows for online learning. We discuss two smoothing methods: dimensionality reduction using Basis matrices and penalized smoothing. The new online learning algorithm generalizes the standard CRPS learning framework into multivariate dimensions. It is based on Bernstein…

利用方差信息进行面板数据群组结构估计的谱聚类AI 解读

Consider a panel data setting where repeated observations on individuals are available. Often it is reasonable to assume that there exist groups of individuals that share similar effects of observed characteristics, but the grouping is typically unknown in advance. We first conduct a local analysis which reveals that the variances of the individual coefficient estimates contain useful information for the estimation of group structure. We then propose a method to estimate…

多弱工具变量下多变量孟德尔随机化的无偏估计与有效渐近推断AI 解读

Mendelian randomization (MR) is an instrumental variable (IV) approach to infer causal relationships between exposures and outcomes with genome-wide association studies (GWAS) summary data. However, the multivariable inverse-variance weighting (IVW) approach, which serves as the foundation for most MR approaches, cannot yield unbiased causal effect estimates in the presence of many weak IVs. To address this problem, we proposed the MR using Bias-corrected Estimating Equation…

边际结构分位数模型的双重稳健估计与敏感性分析AI 解读

The marginal structure quantile model (MSQM) provides a unique lens to understand the causal effect of a time-varying treatment on the full distribution of potential outcomes. Under the semiparametric framework, we derive the efficiency influence function for the MSQM, from which a new doubly robust estimator is proposed for point estimation and inference. We show that the doubly robust estimator is consistent if either of the models associated with treatment assignment or…

利用干预数据进行联邦因果发现AI 解读

Causal discovery serves a pivotal role in mitigating model uncertainty through recovering the underlying causal mechanisms among variables. In many practical domains, such as healthcare, access to the data gathered by individual entities is limited, primarily for privacy and regulatory constraints. However, the majority of existing causal discovery methods require the data to be available in a centralized location. In response, researchers have introduced federated causal…

保护隐私的自适应实验设计AI 解读

Adaptive experiment is widely adopted to estimate conditional average treatment effect (CATE) in clinical trials and many other scenarios. While the primary goal in experiment is to maximize estimation accuracy, due to the imperative of social welfare, it's also crucial to provide treatment with superior outcomes to patients, which is measured by regret in contextual bandit framework. These two objectives often lead to contrast optimal allocation mechanism. Furthermore,…

基于距离协方差的时间序列独立性自助检验AI 解读

We present a test for independence of two strictly stationary time series based on a bootstrap procedure for the distance covariance. Our test detects any kind of dependence between the two time series within an arbitrary maximum lag $L$. In simulation studies, our test outperforms alternative testing procedures. In proving the validity of the underlying bootstrap procedure, we generalise bounds for the Wasserstein distance between an empirical measure and its marginal…

向量自回归模型的结构分析AI 解读

This set of lecture notes discuss key concepts for the Structural Analysis of Vector Autoregressive models for the teaching of a course on Applied Macroeconometrics with Advanced Topics.

潜在稀疏异质性下的面板模型贝叶斯估计AI 解读

We incorporate a version of a spike and slab prior, comprising a pointmass at zero ("spike") and a Normal distribution around zero ("slab") into a dynamic panel data framework to model coefficient heterogeneity. In addition to homogeneity and full heterogeneity, our specification can also capture sparse heterogeneity, that is, there is a core group of units that share common parameters and a set of deviators with idiosyncratic parameters. We fit a model with unobserved…

贝叶斯网络估计倾向得分时二元数据因果效应的检验AI 解读

This paper proposes a new statistical approach for assessing treatment effect using Bayesian Networks (BNs). The goal is to draw causal inferences from observational data with a binary outcome and discrete covariates. The BNs are here used to estimate the propensity score, which enables flexible modeling and ensures maximum likelihood properties, including asymptotic efficiency. %As a result, other available approaches cannot perform better. When the propensity score is…

多终点整群随机试验中整体处理效应的秩估计AI 解读

Cluster randomization trials commonly employ multiple endpoints. When a single summary of treatment effects across endpoints is of primary interest, global hypothesis testing/effect estimation methods represent a common analysis strategy. However, specification of the joint distribution required by these methods is non-trivial, particularly when endpoint properties differ. We develop rank-based interval estimators for a global treatment effect referred to as the "global win…

用于部分可观测动力时间序列预测的松弛自回归模型AI 解读

This study delves into the domain of dynamical systems, specifically the forecasting of dynamical time series defined through an evolution function. Traditional approaches in this area predict the future behavior of dynamical systems by inferring the evolution function. However, these methods may confront obstacles due to the presence of missing variables, which are usually attributed to challenges in measurement and a partial understanding of the system of interest. To…

机器协作：循环交互式监督学习集成框架AI 解读

We propose a new ensemble framework for supervised learning, called machine collaboration (MaC), using a collection of base machines for prediction tasks. Unlike bagging/stacking (a parallel & independent framework) and boosting (a sequential & top-down framework), MaC is a type of circular & interactive learning framework. The circular & interactive feature helps the base machines to transfer information circularly and update their structures and parameters accordingly. The…

iCOS：期权隐含的傅里叶余弦方法AI 解读

This paper proposes the option-implied Fourier-cosine method, iCOS, for non-parametric estimation of risk-neutral densities, option prices, and option sensitivities. The iCOS method leverages the Fourier-based COS technique, proposed by Fang and Oosterlee (2008), by utilizing the option-implied cosine series coefficients. Notably, this procedure does not rely on any model assumptions about the underlying asset price dynamics, it is fully non-parametric, and it does not…