本页提供题录、可核实摘要与阅读线索。AI 解读未完成全文核验,可能有误;具体假设、证明和结论请核对原文。仅依据书目生成的内容属于阅读导航,不是对论文结论的确认。
摘要保留来源文本,未经模型改写。材料不足时保留待解读状态;引用采用 OpenAlex 单条关联记录,不合计版本,缺失不视为零,也不代表论文质量。
正在核对对应版本的资源…
In this study, we enhance the dynamic connectedness measures originally introduced by Diebold and Yılmaz (2012, 2014) with a time-varying parameter vector autoregressive model (TVP-VAR) which predicates upon a time-varying variance-covariance structure. This framework allows to capture possible changes in the underlying structure of the data in a more flexible and robust manner. Specifically, there is neither a need to arbitrarily set the rolling-window size nor a loss of observations in the calculation of the dynamic measures of connectedness, as no rolling-window analysis is involved. Given that the proposed framework rests on multivariate Kalman filters, it is less sensitive to outliers. Furthermore, we emphasise the merits of this approach by conducting Monte Carlo simulations. We put our framework into practice by investigating dynamic connectedness measures of the four most traded foreign exchange rates, comparing the TVP-VAR results to those obtained from three different rolling-window settings. Finally, we propose uncertainty measures for both TVP-VAR-based and rolling-window VAR-based dynamic connectedness measures.