论文检索

遍历马尔可夫过程拟合优度的新方法AI 解读

We introduce a new density-based goodness of fit test for ergodic Markov processes. Our test compares the data against the class of models specified in the null hypothesis, and rejects if no model in the class yields a stationary density that matches with the data. No alternative needs to be specified in order to implement the test. Although our test compares densities, estimation of smoothing parameters is not required, and the test has nontrivial power against $1/\sqrt{n}$…

面板数据中所选群组的条件选择后推断AI 解读

We consider the problem of testing for differences in group-specific slopes between the selected groups in panel data identified via k-means clustering. In this setting, the classical Wald-type test statistic is problematic because it produces an extremely inflated type I error probability. The underlying reason is that the same dataset is used to identify the group structure and construct the test statistic, simultaneously. This creates dependence between the selection and…

反例与充分条件：对“最优传输广义矩估计”的评论AI 解读

We comment on the optimally-transported generalized method of moments (OTGMM) estimator proposed by Schennach & Starck (2026a) and give counterexamples to Theorems 2-6 under their stated assumptions. First, the assumptions used in the small-error analysis are insufficient for consistency in Theorem 2 and asymptotic normality in Theorem 3. Next, we consider the large-error analysis, in which Theorem 4 states that the OTGMM estimator is equivalent to a GMM estimator with…

连接预测与归因：利用同化因果推断识别前向与后向因果影响范围AI 解读

Causal inference identifies cause-and-effect relationships between variables. While traditional approaches rely on data to reveal causal links, a recently developed method, assimilative causal inference (ACI), integrates observations with dynamical models. It utilizes Bayesian data assimilation to trace causes back from observed effects by quantifying the reduction in uncertainty. ACI advances the detection of instantaneous causal relationships and the intermittent reversal…

递归非线性脉冲响应函数的无带宽推断AI 解读

Recursive nonlinear impulse responses require an estimated innovation law whenever the impact shock is normalized by innovation ranks and future innovations are integrated out. The closest semiparametric recursive construction in the literature estimates the relevant innovation quantile functions smoothly and discusses a direct empirical-residual implementation without developing its complete first-order inference theory. We tackle this gap in a finite-dimensional nonlinear…

随机干预效应的校准贝叶斯推断AI 解读

Causal inference increasingly extends beyond classical causal effects defined by deterministic treatment assignments, such as the average treatment effect, to stochastic intervention effects that can weaken positivity requirements and offer greater policy relevance. Nonparametric Bayesian models are attractive for estimating these effects due to their flexibility and inherent uncertainty propagation, but this posterior uncertainty need not be well calibrated for the causal…

通过样本协方差矩阵对网络时间序列进行谱聚类AI 解读

Spectral clustering for community detection is analysed in multivariate time series models whose dependence structure is determined by an unobserved stochastic blockmodel. We establish that spectral clustering of the sample covariance matrix achieves exact recovery of the underlying communities. The recovery rates depend explicitly on the network size, sample length, block separation, and degree of data dependence. This demonstrates that exact community recovery under a…

当预测成为回归变量：下游推断偏差的分样本修正AI 解读

Prediction-based methods, including Large Language Models (LLMs) and other machine learning techniques, are often used to construct measures of political phenomena that are difficult to quantify directly, such as policy positions in manifestos or emotions expressed on social media. In many applications, these prediction-generated measures are used as explanatory variables in regression models, even though they are measured with error. This leads to biased estimates. In this…

不可观测因素的效应检验：婚姻前景是否影响大学专业选择？AI 解读

This paper develops an econometric test for whether an unobservable factor jointly influences a choice among multiple alternatives and a subsequent binary outcome. Because only transformed versions of the choice model's unobservables are identified, we combine a copula-based joint model with results on the covariance between ordered and unordered normal variables to recover the covariance between structural shocks, yielding a simulation-based test for a common unobserved…

用离散选择模型逼近选择数据AI 解读

We obtain a necessary and sufficient condition under which random-coefficient discrete choice models, such as mixed-logit models, are rich enough to approximate any nonparametric random utility models arbitrarily well across choice sets. The condition turns out to be the affine-independence of the set of characteristic vectors. When the condition fails, resulting in some random utility models that cannot be closely approximated, we identify preferences and substitution…

时空因果推断中的异质性处理效应估计AI 解读

Scholars from diverse fields increasingly rely on high-frequency spatio-temporal data. Yet, causal inference with these data remains challenging due to spatial spillover and temporal carryover effects. We develop methods to estimate heterogeneous treatment effects by allowing for arbitrary spatial and temporal causal dependencies. We focus on common settings where the treatment and outcomes are time-varying spatial point patterns and where moderators are either spatial or…

交叉拟合折数较多时的去偏机器学习AI 解读

This paper studies debiased machine learning (DML) when the number of cross-fitting folds, $K_n$, may grow with the sample size $n$. Existing fixed-$K$ asymptotic theory implies that DML1 and DML2, the two main DML variants, are asymptotically equivalent, providing no guidance on which variant to use or how to choose $K_n$. We show that this equivalence can break down when $K_n$ grows proportionally to $\sqrt{n}$: DML1 can exhibit asymptotic bias, in which case standard…

岭回归估计量分布的简单近似AI 解读

We present a simple Gaussian approximation to the finite-sample distribution of the classical ridge regression estimator. Our approximation captures the fact that, in finite samples, the ridge regression estimator trades off bias and variance to reduce estimation and prediction error. Our approximation is based on nonstandard asymptotics where $i)$ we let the estimator's regularization parameter grow proportionally to the sample size; and $ii)$ we treat the population…

二阶识别下 GMM 估计量的大样本性质AI 解读

Dovonon and Hall (Journal of Econometrics, 2018) proposed a limiting distribution theory for GMM estimators for a p - dimensional globally identified parameter vector φ when local identification conditions fail at first-order but hold at second-order. They assumed that the first-order underidentification is due to the expected Jacobian having rank p-1 at the true value φ_{0}, i.e., having a rank deficiency of one. After reparametrizing the model such that the last column of…

意大利北部PM10评估的三种分布方法AI 解读

We propose three spatial methods for estimating the full probability distribution of PM10 concentrations, with the ultimate goal of assessing air quality in Northern Italy. Moving beyond spatial averages and simple indicators, we adopt a distributional perspective to capture the complex variability of pollutant concentrations across space. The first proposed approach predicts class-based compositions via Fixed Rank Kriging; the second estimates multiple, non-crossing…

高维线性模型经验贝叶斯的梯度流方法AI 解读

Empirical Bayes provides a powerful framework for learning and adapting to latent structure in data. In sequence models where an independent observation is associated to each latent parameter, theory and methods around empirical Bayes are well-developed. However, in models where latent parameters and observed data interact through more complex designs, many statistical and algorithmic questions remain unanswered. In this work, we study a canonical setting of empirical Bayes…

多中介情形下自然直接与间接相对风险的回归方法AI 解读

Mediation analysis investigates whether part of the treatment effect is channelled through one or more mediators along the causal pathway between the treatment and the primary outcome. However, the presence of multiple, potentially dependent mediators raises substantial challenges, particularly when the outcome is binary, the mediators are measured on different scales, and interactions are present. We consider on causal mediation analysis with a binary treatment and a binary…

具有交互固定效应的高维面板模型：超越线性情形AI 解读

Modern economic panel data sets are often high-dimensional: they contain information on a wide variety of control variables whose number may even exceed the sample size. Nevertheless, the literature on econometric methods for high-dimensional panels is quite limited. In this paper, we study high-dimensional panel models with interactive fixed effects where the regression function has an additive structure, i.e., each covariate enters the model via an unknown nonlinear…

单人试验的因果推断AI 解读

The aim of personalized medicine is to tailor treatment decisions to individuals' characteristics. N-of-1 trials are within-person crossover trials that hold the promise of targeting individual-specific effects. While the idea behind N-of-1 trials might seem simple, analyzing and interpreting N-of-1 trials is not straightforward. Here we ground N-of-1 trials in a formal causal inference framework and formalize intuitive claims from the N-of-1 trials literature. We focus on…

用变换与增广最小二乘估计地球温度响应AI 解读

The long-term relationship between radiative forcing and surface temperature is central to predicting the impacts of climate change. This study employs multicointegration to characterize this relationship and provides the first application of the Transformed and Augmented Ordinary Least Squares (TAOLS) estimator to estimate the multicointegration model. The main objective is to estimate the Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity (ECS), defined as the global mean surface temperature…

相关分类结果的多变量多项Logit模型与ANOVA分解AI 解读

In medical research, patients often have multiple interdependent outcomes, such as posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD), depression, and pain among trauma survivors. Most existing research uses multinomial regression to analyze these interdependent outcomes separately, which ignores correlations between concurrent conditions. This omission may lead to loss of information and reduced predictive accuracy. Accounting for correlations between multiple categorical outcomes…

时间序列特征集在分类任务中的统计比较AI 解读

In recent years, numerous open-source software libraries have been developed for computing sets of features from univariate time series. The type and number of features vary across these feature sets, which have been constructed with varying disciplinary perspectives on quantifying structure in time-series data. To date, the relative strengths and weaknesses of these feature sets on time-series classification problems remains largely unexplored. Here we aimed to understand…

基于核岭回归的条件平均处理效应迁移学习AI 解读

The proliferation of data has sparked significant interest in leveraging findings from one study to estimate treatment effects in a different target population without direct outcome observations. However, the transfer learning process is frequently hindered by substantial covariate shift and limited overlap between (i) the source and target populations, as well as (ii) the treatment and control groups within the source. We propose a novel method for overlap-adaptive…

小样本与短面板：用贴近实际的数据评估政策评价方法AI 解读

Methods for estimating causal effects in longitudinal, quasi-experimental settings are widely used in economics, public health, political science, and other fields. However, studies evaluating effects of health policies often rely on limited sample sizes, both in terms of study units and time periods analyzed. Synthetic difference-in-differences (SDiD) and the augmented synthetic control method (ASCM) are recently developed methods for evaluating the effects of policy…