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静态支付意愿何时产生误导？动态特征价值评估框架AI 解读

Many policy counterfactuals depend on how consumers value product attributes such as sugar, caffeine, alcohol, or emissions. Standard hedonic and differentiated-products models typically impose time-separable preferences. But when attributes are habit forming, current consumption can shift future marginal valuations, so static willingness-to-pay may be insufficient for policy counterfactuals. I develop a nonparametric revealed-preference framework for dynamic hedonic…

诊断测试与人工智能医疗器械的因果评估：效应修饰与信息增强决策AI 解读

Diagnostic medical tests and devices provide useful information for evaluating the potential benefits and risks of therapeutic treatments. However, unlike treatments, their impact on health outcomes is generally indirect because measuring diagnostic information typically does not itself affect patient outcomes, which complicates evaluation of their effectiveness. In this work, we develop a causal inference approach for evaluating diagnostic tests by distinguishing…

协变量分布迁移下连续处理效应的因果推广AI 解读

Average dose-response functions are widely used to summarize causal effects of continuous treatments, but most existing methods assume that the observed sample represents the target population. We study a covariate-shift setting in which covariates, treatment, and outcome are observed in a labelled source sample, while only covariates are observed in the target sample. We develop a two-sample local polynomial regression framework based on pseudo-outcomes that use source…

删失选择模型的分布回归方法AI 解读

We develop a distribution regression model with a censored selection rule, offering a semi-parametric generalization of the Heckman selection model. Our approach applies to the entire distribution, extending beyond the mean or median, accommodates non-Gaussian error structures, and allows for heterogeneous effects of covariates on both the selection and outcome distributions. By employing a censored selection rule, our model can uncover richer selection patterns according to…

不要丢弃单例：独立流失下配对实验的有效推断AI 解读

Pairwise randomization can yield substantial efficiency gains in experiments. Yet methodological guidance cautions against pairwise randomization, especially in settings with attrition, partly because common practices for estimation (i.e., pair fixed effects) imply discarding data from incomplete pairs thus exacerbating data loss from attrition. This practice of dropping incomplete pairs reduces statistical power of tests as well as precision of estimates, in paired…

Lasso选择后Cox模型的模型化自助法推断AI 解读

Inference after variable selection in Cox regression is difficult because simple Wald-type intervals after selection can have poor finite-sample conditional coverage. We study a model-based bootstrap for inference after Cox-Lasso variable selection. The Cox-Lasso is fitted once to the original data to select a set of variables, after which an unpenalized Cox model is fitted using only those variables. Bootstrap samples are generated from a semiparametric plug-in Cox model…

存在溢出效应的实验与准实验：基于设计的检验和推断AI 解读

Economic policies rarely affect only their direct targets. To study these spillovers, researchers summarize who else was treated with a simple exposure measure, such as the share of treated neighbors within a radius. But for many settings, economic theory provides little guidance on choosing the functional form (e.g., ring) of that measure or its parameters (e.g., radius). We show that the data can inform both choices. Correctly specified exposure measures imply…

用于非线性现象模型识别的正则化迭代广义最小二乘与超参数选择AI 解读

In some fields currently dominated by empirical approaches, such as state of health (SoH) prediction for lithium-ion batteries, phenomenological models motivated by quasi-physical thinking contain parameters to be estimated from experimental data. Often the structure of such models yields fully or partially confounded parameters, which are difficult or even impossible to estimate reliably. To preserve the desired model formulation and simultaneously improve the numerical…

恢复潜变量的非线性函数：合理值神经网络框架AI 解读

When factor scores replace true latent scores in nonlinear prediction, measurement error attenuates the recoverable variance of any $k$th-order component of the regression function by $ρ^k$ -- the $k$th power of the score's coefficient of determination -- for any linear score type. This study derives the bound via Hermite polynomial expansion and proposes PV-ANN -- plausible values (posterior draws preserving latent variance) combined with artificial neural networks…

用于季节性传染病干预因果评估的贝叶斯疫情对齐AI 解读

Seasonal infectious-disease interventions are commonly evaluated with interrupted time-series or pre--post designs that align epidemics by calendar week. When epidemic onset, speed or peak timing differs between seasons, such comparisons confound a shift in epidemic phase with a change in disease burden. We propose a Bayesian causal count model in which season-specific affine transformations map calendar time to a latent epidemic clock, and intervention effects are estimated…

通过构造工具变量实现测量误差稳健的因果推断AI 解读

Measurement error can often be harmful when estimating causal effects. Two scenarios in which this is the case are in the estimation of (a) the average treatment effect when confounders are measured with error and (b) the natural indirect effect when the exposure and/or confounders are measured with error. Methods adjusting for measurement error typically require external data or knowledge about the measurement error distribution. Here, we propose methodology not requiring…

以回归统一理解自相关、偏自相关、Durbin–Levinson 递推与一步预测AI 解读

The autocorrelation function (ACF) and partial autocorrelation function (PACF) are foundational tools for identifying autoregressive moving-average (ARMA) models, yet they are often introduced in ways that appear disconnected from the regression concepts students already know. This paper develops a unified, regression-based instructional framework for the ACF, PACF, Durbin--Levinson recursion, and one-step-ahead prediction for weakly stationary time series. We show that the…

质心参照马氏匹配：大规模观察研究的因果推断框架AI 解读

Matching for causal inference can be computationally expensive at scale and can silently change the target population when overlap is limited. We propose Centroid-Referenced Mahalanobis Matching (CRM), which replaces global pairwise search with stratified sampling in two reference coordinates: each unit's Mahalanobis distance from the treated centroid and its Fisher coordinate along the treated-control mean shift. All covariates enter through the treated covariance geometry;…

个体化治疗效应预测校准的非参数评估AI 解读

An important aspect of the performance of algorithms that predict individualized treatment effects (ITE) is moderate calibration, i.e., the average treatment effect among individuals with predicted treatment effect of z being equal to z. The assessment of moderate calibration is challenging on two fronts: counterfactual responses are unobserved, and quantifying the conditional response function for models that generate continuous predicted values requires regularization.…

中断时间序列的因果中介分析：稳定中介加权及车辆排放政策应用AI 解读

Population-level policies are introduced at a fixed time and evaluated from a single series of aggregate outcomes, and the interrupted time series design estimates the total shift in an outcome after the intervention. When the policy is expected to act through a measurable pathway, the total effect is less informative than its decomposition into direct and indirect effects. We formulate causal mediation for a single interrupted time series and study stabilized mediator…

实验设计的极限：超越低维的协变量平衡AI 解读

We study how fast experimental designs can approach the semiparametric efficiency bound in finite samples, as measured by the excess variance of unadjusted treatment effect estimation. We prove an impossibility theorem: under weak conditions, no design can approach the variance bound uniformly over smooth outcome models unless covariate dimension $d \ll \log n$. Even in experiments with thousands of units, this permits only a handful of covariates. Motivated by this, we…

后验漂移与潜在隐藏混杂下的试验证据迁移AI 解读

Randomized trials provide internally valid treatment-effect evidence, but trial participants may not represent the target population. In contrast, observational studies are often closer to the target population, but their treatment assignment may be affected by possible hidden confounding. We develop a robust posterior-drift framework for estimating the average treatment effect in an observational target population when exact conditional-effect transportability may fail. The…

VAR 预测与脉冲响应的误设稳健收缩及选择AI 解读

Vector autoregressions (VARs) are vulnerable to dynamic misspecification, forcing researchers to navigate complex bias-variance trade-offs when forecasting or estimating impulse response functions (IRFs). We derive novel, task-specific selection criteria -- PC for forecasting and IRFC for IRF estimation -- based on asymptotically unbiased estimates of frequentist risk under local dynamic misspecification. These criteria give empirical researchers a fully data-driven and…

用于成分回归的图自适应马蹄先验AI 解读

Compositional predictors, such as microbiome abundances, pose unique challenges in variable selection due to their unit-sum constraint and inherent dependencies. Existing approaches often rely on fixed association graphs derived from phylogenetic or ecological distances, which may not reflect outcome-relevant relationships. We propose GRACE (GRaph-Adaptive horseshoe for Compositional rEgression), a fully Bayesian framework that enforces compositional constraints, performs…

识别变异集中时固定效应回归的精确推断AI 解读

In fixed-effect regressions with many groups, fixed effects can absorb most identifying variation, leaving a handful of observations to carry what remains. When variation is this concentrated, conventional $t$-tests can reject a true null more than half the time, and any fixed critical value is either invalid or so conservative it has essentially no power. This paper builds an exact test from the design alone. A \textit{nuisance-annihilating contrast} is a linear combination…

森林核平衡权重：由结局引导的因果推断特征AI 解读

While balancing covariates between groups is central for observational causal inference, selecting which features to balance remains a challenging problem. Kernel balancing is a promising approach that first estimates a kernel that captures similarity across units and then balances a (possibly low-dimensional) summary of that kernel, indirectly learning important features to balance. In this paper, we propose forest kernel balancing, which leverages the underappreciated fact…

adjustedCurves：在 R 中估计混杂调整后的生存曲线AI 解读

Kaplan-Meier curves stratified by treatment allocation are the most popular way to depict causal effects in studies with right-censored time-to-event endpoints. If the treatment is randomly assigned and the sample size of the study is adequate, this method produces unbiased estimates of the population-averaged counterfactual survival curves. However, in observational studies, this is no longer the case. Instead, specific methods that allow adjustment for confounding must be…

学习该学什么：结合实验与观察证据的实验设计AI 解读

Experiments deliver credible treatment-effect estimates but, because they are costly, are often restricted to specific sites, small populations, or particular mechanisms. A common practice across several fields is therefore to combine experimental estimates with reduced-form or structural external (observational) evidence to answer broader policy questions, such as those involving general equilibrium effects or external validity. We develop a unified framework for the design…

时变调节效应的选择后推断AI 解读

Causal effect moderation investigates how the effect of interventions (or treatments) on outcome variables changes based on observed characteristics of individuals, known as potential effect moderators. With advances in data collection, datasets containing many observed features as potential moderators have become increasingly common. High-dimensional analyses often lack interpretability, with important moderators masked by noise, while low-dimensional, marginal analyses…