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高维颗粒工具变量的推断理论AI 解读

The Granular Instrumental Variables (GIV) methodology exploits panels with factor error structures to construct instruments to estimate structural time series models with endogeneity even after controlling for latent factors. We extend the GIV methodology in several dimensions. First, we extend the identification procedure to a large $N$ and large $T$ framework, which depends on the asymptotic Herfindahl index of the size distribution of $N$ cross-sectional units. Second, we…

随机试验中高效处理效应推断的加权预后协变量调整AI 解读

A crucial task for a randomized controlled trial (RCT) is to specify a statistical method that can yield an efficient estimator and powerful test for the treatment effect. A novel and effective strategy to obtain efficient and powerful treatment effect inferences is to incorporate predictions from generative artificial intelligence (AI) algorithms into covariate adjustment for the regression analysis of a RCT. Training a generative AI algorithm on historical control data…

结构线性模型中非高斯维数的稳健估计AI 解读

Statistical identification of possibly non-fundamental SVARMA models requires structural errors: (i) to be an i.i.d process, (ii) to be mutually independent across components, and (iii) each of them must be non-Gaussian distributed. Hence, provided the first two requisites, it is crucial to evaluate the non-Gaussian identification condition. We address this problem by relating the non-Gaussian dimension of structural errors vector to the rank of a matrix built from the…

基于距离协方差的功能充分降维AI 解读

Our research proposes a novel method for reducing the dimensionality of functional data, specifically for the case where the response is a scalar and the predictor is a random function. Our method utilizes distance covariance, and has several advantages over existing methods. Unlike current techniques which require restrictive assumptions such as linear conditional mean and constant covariance, our method has mild requirements on the predictor. Additionally, our method does…

治疗依从性的可分离效应AI 解读

Comparing different medications is complicated when adherence to these medications differs. We can overcome the adherence issue by assessing effectiveness under sustained use, as in the usual causal `per-protocol' estimand. However, when sustained use is challenging to satisfy in practice, the usefulness of this estimand can be limited. Here we propose a different class of estimands: separable effects for adherence. These estimands compare modified medications, holding fixed…

幂律衰减下核岭回归的渐近学习曲线AI 解读

The widely observed 'benign overfitting phenomenon' in the neural network literature raises the challenge to the 'bias-variance trade-off' doctrine in the statistical learning theory. Since the generalization ability of the 'lazy trained' over-parametrized neural network can be well approximated by that of the neural tangent kernel regression, the curve of the excess risk (namely, the learning curve) of kernel ridge regression attracts increasing attention recently. However,…

OpportunityFinder：自动化因果推断框架AI 解读

We introduce OpportunityFinder, a code-less framework for performing a variety of causal inference studies with panel data for non-expert users. In its current state, OpportunityFinder only requires users to provide raw observational data and a configuration file. A pipeline is then triggered that inspects/processes data, chooses the suitable algorithm(s) to execute the causal study. It returns the causal impact of the treatment on the configured outcome, together with…

无限因子分解的贝叶斯方法综述AI 解读

Defining the number of latent factors has been one of the most challenging problems in factor analysis. Infinite factor models offer a solution to this problem by applying increasing shrinkage on the columns of factor loading matrices, thus penalising increasing factor dimensionality. The adaptive MCMC algorithms used for inference in such models allow to defer the dimension of the latent factor space automatically based on the data. This paper presents an overview of…

中介与结果非随机缺失时的中介分析AI 解读

Mediation analysis is widely used for investigating direct and indirect causal pathways through which an effect arises. However, many mediation analysis studies are challenged by missingness in the mediator and outcome. In general, when the mediator and outcome are missing not at random, the direct and indirect effects are not identifiable without further assumptions. In this work, we study the identifiability of the direct and indirect effects under some interpretable…

降秩包络向量自回归模型AI 解读

The standard vector autoregressive (VAR) models suffer from overparameterization which is a serious issue for high-dimensional time series data as it restricts the number of variables and lags that can be incorporated into the model. Several statistical methods, such as the reduced-rank model for multivariate (multiple) time series (Velu et al., 1986; Reinsel and Velu, 1998; Reinsel et al., 2022) and the Envelope VAR model (Wang and Ding, 2018), provide solutions for…

糖尿病试验中假设性目标量的因果推断与缺失数据估计AI 解读

The recently published ICH E9 addendum on estimands in clinical trials provides a framework for precisely defining the treatment effect that is to be estimated, but says little about estimation methods. Here we report analyses of a clinical trial in type 2 diabetes, targeting the effects of randomised treatment, handling rescue treatment and discontinuation of randomised treatment using the so-called hypothetical strategy. We show how this can be estimated using mixed models…

大数据分位数回归视角下宏观经济尾部风险的非线性AI 解读

Modeling and predicting extreme movements in GDP is notoriously difficult and the selection of appropriate covariates and/or possible forms of nonlinearities are key in obtaining precise forecasts. In this paper, our focus is on using large datasets in quantile regression models to forecast the conditional distribution of US GDP growth. To capture possible non-linearities, we include several nonlinear specifications. The resulting models will be huge dimensional and we thus…

催化先验：用合成数据为贝叶斯分析设定先验分布AI 解读

Catalytic prior distributions provide general, easy-to-use, and interpretable specifications of prior distributions for Bayesian analysis. They are particularly beneficial when the observed data are inadequate to stably estimate a complex target model. A catalytic prior distribution is constructed by augmenting the observed data with synthetic data that are sampled from the predictive distribution of a simpler model estimated from the observed data. We illustrate the…

目标总体平均处理效应的多重稳健联邦估计AI 解读

Federated or multi-site studies have distinct advantages over single-site studies, including increased generalizability, the ability to study underrepresented populations, and the opportunity to study rare exposures and outcomes. However, these studies are challenging due to the need to preserve the privacy of each individual's data and the heterogeneity in their covariate distributions. We propose a novel federated approach to derive valid causal inferences for a target…

青少年受害经历对违法行为的影响：缺失数据与未测混杂的灵活方法AI 解读

The causal link between victimization and violence later in life is largely accepted but has been understudied for victimized adolescents. In this work we use the Add Health dataset, the largest nationally representative longitudinal survey of adolescents, to estimate the relationship between victimization and future offending in this population. To accomplish this, we derive a new doubly robust estimator for the average treatment effect on the treated (ATT) when the…

全基因组研究中基于条件对称多维高斯混合的大规模复合零假设检验AI 解读

Causal mediation analysis, pleiotropy analysis, and replication analysis are three highly popular genetic study designs. Although these analyses address different scientific questions, the underlying inference problems all involve large-scale testing of composite null hypotheses. The goal is to determine whether all null hypotheses - as opposed to at least one - in a set of individual tests should simultaneously be rejected. Various recent methodology has been proposed for…

最小 l2 范数插值估计量良性过拟合性质的几何视角及其普适性AI 解读

In the linear regression model, the minimum l2-norm interpolant estimator has received much attention since it was proved to be consistent even though it fits noisy data perfectly under some condition on the covariance matrix $Σ$ of the input vector, known as benign overfitting. Motivated by this phenomenon, we study the generalization property of this estimator from a geometrical viewpoint. Our main results extend and improve the convergence rates as well as the deviation…

不同时间尺度下时间记忆模式的检测分析AI 解读

This paper introduces a novel methodology that utilizes latency to unveil time-series dependence patterns. A customized statistical test detects memory dependence in event sequences by analyzing their inter-event time distributions. Synthetic experiments based on the renewal-aging property assess the impact of observer latency on the renewal property. Our test uncovers memory patterns across diverse time scales, emphasizing the event sequence's probability structure beyond…

考虑主效应的生存因果规则集成方法：异质性处理效应估计AI 解读

With an increasing focus on precision medicine in medical research, numerous studies have been conducted in recent years to clarify the relationship between treatment effects and patient characteristics. The treatment effects for patients with different characteristics are always heterogeneous, and various heterogeneous treatment effect machine learning estimation methods have been proposed owing to their flexibility and high prediction accuracy. However, most machine…

结果依赖抽样与结果测量误差下的因果推断AI 解读

Outcome-dependent sampling designs are extensively utilized in various scientific disciplines, including epidemiology, ecology, and economics, with retrospective case-control studies being specific examples of such designs. Additionally, if the outcome used for sample selection is also mismeasured, then it is even more challenging to estimate the average treatment effect (ATE) accurately. To our knowledge, no existing method can address these two issues simultaneously. In…

电子交易中的 Transformer 与 LSTM 比较AI 解读

With the rapid development of artificial intelligence, long short term memory (LSTM), one kind of recurrent neural network (RNN), has been widely applied in time series prediction. Like RNN, Transformer is designed to handle the sequential data. As Transformer achieved great success in Natural Language Processing (NLP), researchers got interested in Transformer's performance on time series prediction, and plenty of Transformer-based solutions on long time series forecasting…

工具变量面板设计的更稳健估计：以中国进口对美国就业的影响为例AI 解读

We show that first-difference two-stages-least-squares regressions identify non-convex combinations of location-and-period-specific treatment effects. Thus, those regressions could be biased if effects are heterogeneous. We propose an alternative instrumental-variable correlated-random-coefficient (IV-CRC) estimator, that is more robust to heterogeneous effects. We revisit Autor et al. (2013), who use a first-difference two-stages-least-squares regression to estimate the…

用于动态认知模型贝叶斯估计的神经超统计方法AI 解读

Mathematical models of cognition are often memoryless and ignore potential fluctuations of their parameters. However, human cognition is inherently dynamic. Thus, we propose to augment mechanistic cognitive models with a temporal dimension and estimate the resulting dynamics from a superstatistics perspective. Such a model entails a hierarchy between a low-level observation model and a high-level transition model. The observation model describes the local behavior of a…

最优子群选择AI 解读

In clinical trials and other applications, we often see regions of the feature space that appear to exhibit interesting behaviour, but it is unclear whether these observed phenomena are reflected at the population level. Focusing on a regression setting, we consider the subgroup selection challenge of identifying a region of the feature space on which the regression function exceeds a pre-determined threshold. We formulate the problem as one of constrained optimisation,…