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成对关系数据核密度估计的一致推断AI 解读

Dyadic data is often encountered when quantities of interest are associated with the edges of a network. As such it plays an important role in statistics, econometrics and many other data science disciplines. We consider the problem of uniformly estimating a dyadic Lebesgue density function, focusing on nonparametric kernel-based estimators taking the form of dyadic empirical processes. Our main contributions include the minimax-optimal uniform convergence rate of the dyadic…

Clip-OGD：序贯实验中自适应 Neyman 分配的实验设计AI 解读

From clinical development of cancer therapies to investigations into partisan bias, adaptive sequential designs have become increasingly popular method for causal inference, as they offer the possibility of improved precision over their non-adaptive counterparts. However, even in simple settings (e.g. two treatments) the extent to which adaptive designs can improve precision is not sufficiently well understood. In this work, we study the problem of Adaptive Neyman Allocation…

平滑工具变量分位数回归AI 解读

In this article, I introduce the sivqr command, which estimates the coefficients of the instrumental variables (IV) quantile regression model introduced by Chernozhukov and Hansen (2005). The sivqr command offers several advantages over the existing ivqreg and ivqreg2 commands for estimating this IV quantile regression model, which complements the alternative "triangular model" behind cqiv and the "local quantile treatment effect" model of ivqte. Computationally, sivqr…

最小假设下含协变量的断点回归平均处理效应估计AI 解读

We study regression discontinuity designs with the use of additional covariates for estimation of the average treatment effect. We provide a detailed proof of asymptotic normality of the covariate-adjusted estimator under minimal assumptions, which may serve as an accessible text to the mathematics behind regression discontinuity with covariates. In addition, this proof carries at least three benefits. First of all, it allows to draw straightforward consequences concerning…

因果推断中的双重下降与单调下降：高维合成控制应用AI 解读

Motivated by a recent literature on the double-descent phenomenon in machine learning, we consider highly over-parameterized models in causal inference, including synthetic control with many control units. In such models, there may be so many free parameters that the model fits the training data perfectly. We first investigate high-dimensional linear regression for imputing wage data and estimating average treatment effects, where we find that models with many more…

基线子组及相关分析的设计型随机试验估计量与中心极限定理AI 解读

There is a growing literature on design-based methods to estimate average treatment effects (ATEs) for randomized controlled trials (RCTs) for full sample analyses. This article extends these methods to estimate ATEs for discrete subgroups defined by pre-treatment variables, with an application to an RCT testing subgroup effects for a school voucher experiment in New York City. We consider ratio estimators for subgroup effects using regression methods, allowing for model…

分位数预测最优性的检验AI 解读

Quantile forecasts made across multiple horizons have become an important output of many financial institutions, central banks and international organisations. This paper proposes misspecification tests for such quantile forecasts that assess optimality over a set of multiple forecast horizons and/or quantiles. The tests build on multiple Mincer-Zarnowitz quantile regressions cast in a moment equality framework. Our main test is for the null hypothesis of autocalibration, a…

高维复合分位数回归：最优统计保证与快速算法AI 解读

The composite quantile regression (CQR) was introduced by Zou and Yuan [Ann. Statist. 36 (2008) 1108--1126] as a robust regression method for linear models with heavy-tailed errors while achieving high efficiency. Its penalized counterpart for high-dimensional sparse models was recently studied in Gu and Zou [IEEE Trans. Inf. Theory 66 (2020) 7132--7154], along with a specialized optimization algorithm based on the alternating direct method of multipliers (ADMM). Compared to…

高维投影样本协方差的极值渐近理论及金融与卷积网络应用AI 解读

Maximum-type statistics of certain functions of the sample covariance matrix of high-dimensional vector time series are studied to statistically confirm or reject the null hypothesis that a data set has been collected under normal conditions. The approach generalizes the case of the maximal deviation of the sample autocovariances function from its assumed values. Within a linear time series framework it is shown that Gumbel-type extreme value asymptotics holds true. As…

网络合成干预：网络干扰下的面板数据因果框架AI 解读

We propose a generalization of the synthetic controls and synthetic interventions methodology to incorporate network interference. We consider the estimation of unit-specific potential outcomes from panel data in the presence of spillover across units and unobserved confounding. Key to our approach is a novel latent factor model that takes into account network interference and generalizes the factor models typically used in panel data settings. We propose an estimator,…

用于高维回归的因子增强稀疏直通深度 ReLU 神经网络AI 解读

This paper introduces a Factor Augmented Sparse Throughput (FAST) model that utilizes both latent factors and sparse idiosyncratic components for nonparametric regression. The FAST model bridges factor models on one end and sparse nonparametric models on the other end. It encompasses structured nonparametric models such as factor augmented additive models and sparse low-dimensional nonparametric interaction models and covers the cases where the covariates do not admit factor…

带相依误差的正则化非线性回归及其在生物力学模型中的应用AI 解读

A biomechanical model often requires parameter estimation and selection in a known but complicated nonlinear function. Motivated by observing that data from a head-neck position tracking system, one of biomechanical models, show multiplicative time dependent errors, we develop a modified penalized weighted least squares estimator. The proposed method can be also applied to a model with non-zero mean time dependent additive errors. Asymptotic properties of the proposed…

分裂敲除方法用于多重比较：控制方向性错误发现率AI 解读

Multiple comparisons in hypothesis testing often encounter structural constraints in various applications. For instance, in structural Magnetic Resonance Imaging for Alzheimer's Disease, the focus extends beyond examining atrophic brain regions to include comparisons of anatomically adjacent regions. These constraints can be modeled as linear transformations of parameters, where the sign patterns play a crucial role in estimating directional effects. This class of problems,…

平滑嵌套模拟：在高维中连接立方根与平方根收敛速度AI 解读

Nested simulation concerns estimating functionals of a conditional expectation via simulation. In this paper, we propose a new method based on kernel ridge regression to exploit the smoothness of the conditional expectation as a function of the multidimensional conditioning variable. Asymptotic analysis shows that the proposed method can effectively alleviate the curse of dimensionality on the convergence rate as the simulation budget increases, provided that the conditional…

通过多重插补实现因果推断中的 G 公式AI 解读

G-formula is a popular approach for estimating treatment or exposure effects from longitudinal data that are subject to time-varying confounding. G-formula estimation is typically performed by Monte-Carlo simulation, with non-parametric bootstrapping used for inference. We show that G-formula can be implemented by exploiting existing methods for multiple imputation (MI) for synthetic data. This involves using an existing modified version of Rubin's variance estimator. In…

非独立同分布创新下高维向量自回归时间序列的统计推断AI 解读

Independent or i.i.d. innovations is an essential assumption in the literature for analyzing a vector time series. However, this assumption is either too restrictive for a real-life time series to satisfy or is hard to verify through a hypothesis test. This paper performs statistical inference on a sparse high-dimensional vector autoregressive time series, allowing its white noise innovations to be dependent, even non-stationary. To achieve this goal, it adopts a…

用于多纵向变量研究的功能广义典型相关分析AI 解读

In this paper, we introduce Functional Generalized Canonical Correlation Analysis (FGCCA), a new framework for exploring associations between multiple random processes observed jointly. The framework is based on the multiblock Regularized Generalized Canonical Correlation Analysis (RGCCA) framework. It is robust to sparsely and irregularly observed data, making it applicable in many settings. We establish the monotonic property of the solving procedure and introduce a…

年龄—时期—队列分析的系统模拟：贝叶斯正则化偏差AI 解读

Age-period-cohort (APC) analysis is one of the fundamental time-series analyses used in the social sciences. This paper evaluates APC analysis via systematic simulation in term of how well the artificial parameters are recovered. We consider three models of Bayesian regularization using normal prior distributions: the random effects model with reference to multilevel analysis, the ridge regression model equivalent to the intrinsic estimator, and the random walk model…

利用多模态数据进行时空野火预测AI 解读

Due to severe societal and environmental impacts, wildfire prediction using multi-modal sensing data has become a highly sought-after data-analytical tool by various stakeholders (such as state governments and power utility companies) to achieve a more informed understanding of wildfire activities and plan preventive measures. A desirable algorithm should precisely predict fire risk and magnitude for a location in real time. In this paper, we develop a flexible…

稀疏估计中的选择后推断AI 解读

When the model is not known and parameter testing or interval estimation is conducted after model selection, it is necessary to consider selective inference. This paper discusses this issue in the context of sparse estimation. Firstly, we describe selective inference related to Lasso as per \cite{lee}, and then present polyhedra and truncated distributions when applying it to methods such as Forward Stepwise and LARS. Lastly, we discuss the Significance Test for Lasso by…

基于深度学习的时间序列自动变点检测AI 解读

Detecting change-points in data is challenging because of the range of possible types of change and types of behaviour of data when there is no change. Statistically efficient methods for detecting a change will depend on both of these features, and it can be difficult for a practitioner to develop an appropriate detection method for their application of interest. We show how to automatically generate new offline detection methods based on training a neural network. Our…

含外生回归变量的贝叶斯自回归模型：交叉验证与模型选择AI 解读

Bayesian cross-validation (CV) is a popular method for predictive model assessment that is simple to implement and broadly applicable. A wide range of CV schemes is available for time series applications, including generic leave-one-out (LOO) and K-fold methods, as well as specialized approaches intended to deal with serial dependence such as leave-future-out (LFO), h-block, and hv-block. Existing large-sample results show that both specialized and generic methods are…

无需正值性假设的观察数据政策学习AI 解读

Policy learning utilizing observational data is pivotal across various domains, with the objective of learning the optimal treatment assignment policy while adhering to specific constraints such as fairness, budget, and simplicity. This study introduces a novel positivity-free (stochastic) policy learning framework designed to address the challenges posed by the impracticality of the positivity assumption in real-world scenarios. This framework leverages incremental…

超高维混杂变量选择算法比较及影像组学应用AI 解读

Radiomics is an emerging area of medical imaging data analysis particularly for cancer. It involves the conversion of digital medical images into mineable ultra-high dimensional data. Machine learning algorithms are widely used in radiomics data analysis to develop powerful decision support model to improve precision in diagnosis, assessment of prognosis and prediction of therapy response. However, machine learning algorithms for causal inference have not been previously…