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面向单通道应用的潜变量模型谱正则化框架AI 解读

Latent variable models (LVMs) are commonly used to capture the underlying dependencies, patterns, and hidden structure in observed data. Source duplication is a by-product of the data hankelisation pre-processing step common to single channel LVM applications, which hinders practical LVM utilisation. In this article, a Python package titled spectrally-regularised-LVMs is presented. The proposed package addresses the source duplication issue via the addition of a novel…

人气、面容与声音：用机器学习预测和解释主播销售表现AI 解读

Livestreaming commerce, a hybrid of e-commerce and self-media, has expanded the broad spectrum of traditional sales performance determinants. To investigate the factors that contribute to the success of livestreaming commerce, we construct a longitudinal firm-level database with 19,175 observations, covering an entire livestreaming subsector. By comparing the forecasting accuracy of eight machine learning models, we identify a random forest model that provides the best…

高维潜在高斯计数时间序列：自协方差集中界及应用AI 解读

This work considers stationary vector count time series models defined via deterministic functions of a latent stationary vector Gaussian series. The construction is very general and ensures a pre-specified marginal distribution for the counts in each dimension, depending on unknown parameters that can be marginally estimated. The vector Gaussian series injects flexibility into the model's temporal and cross-dimensional dependencies, perhaps through a parametric model akin…

高维随机镶嵌森林的极小极大收敛速率AI 解读

Random forests are a popular class of algorithms used for regression and classification. The algorithm introduced by Breiman in 2001 and many of its variants are ensembles of randomized decision trees built from axis-aligned partitions of the feature space. One such variant, called Mondrian forests, was proposed to handle the online setting and is the first class of random forests for which minimax rates were obtained in arbitrary dimension. However, the restriction to…

在面板模型中纳入潜在分组结构的先验知识AI 解读

The assumption of group heterogeneity has become popular in panel data models. We develop a constrained Bayesian grouped estimator that exploits researchers' prior beliefs on groups in a form of pairwise constraints, indicating whether a pair of units is likely to belong to a same group or different groups. We propose a prior to incorporate the pairwise constraints with varying degrees of confidence. The whole framework is built on the nonparametric Bayesian method, which…

超大样本半参数单调指数模型的随机学习AI 解读

I study the estimation of semiparametric monotone index models in the scenario where the number of observation points $n$ is extremely large and conventional approaches fail to work due to heavy computational burdens. Motivated by the mini-batch gradient descent algorithm (MBGD) that is widely used as a stochastic optimization tool in the machine learning field, I proposes a novel subsample- and iteration-based estimation procedure. In particular, starting from any initial…

不确定因果网络中的因果效应识别AI 解读

Causal identification is at the core of the causal inference literature, where complete algorithms have been proposed to identify causal queries of interest. The validity of these algorithms hinges on the restrictive assumption of having access to a correctly specified causal structure. In this work, we study the setting where a probabilistic model of the causal structure is available. Specifically, the edges in a causal graph exist with uncertainties which may, for example,…

横截面与时间联合概率预测协调：方法与实践问题AI 解读

Forecast reconciliation is a post-forecasting process that involves transforming a set of incoherent forecasts into coherent forecasts which satisfy a given set of linear constraints for a multivariate time series. In this paper we extend the current state-of-the-art cross-sectional probabilistic forecast reconciliation approach to encompass a cross-temporal framework, where temporal constraints are also applied. Our proposed methodology employs both parametric Gaussian and…

多条相依异方差时间序列的新模型AI 解读

Functional magnetic resonance imaging or functional MRI (fMRI) is a very popular tool used for differing brain regions by measuring brain activity. It is affected by physiological noise, such as head and brain movement in the scanner from breathing, heart beats, or the subject fidgeting. The purpose of this paper is to propose a novel approach to handling fMRI data for infants with high volatility caused by sudden head movements. Another purpose is to evaluate the volatility…

ℓ1 正则化回归的近似留一交叉验证AI 解读

The out-of-sample error (OO) is the main quantity of interest in risk estimation and model selection. Leave-one-out cross validation (LO) offers a (nearly) distribution-free yet computationally demanding approach to estimate OO. Recent theoretical work showed that approximate leave-one-out cross validation (ALO) is a computationally efficient and statistically reliable estimate of LO (and OO) for generalized linear models with differentiable regularizers. For problems…

含随机波动率与多重时变权重的贝叶斯空间自回归模型AI 解读

A novel spatial autoregressive model for panel data is introduced, which incorporates multilayer networks and accounts for time-varying relationships. Moreover, the proposed approach allows the structural variance to evolve smoothly over time and enables the analysis of shock propagation in terms of time-varying spillover effects. The framework is applied to analyse the dynamics of international relationships among the G7 economies and their impact on stock market returns…

弹性梯度下降：逼近弹性网解路径的迭代优化方法AI 解读

The elastic net combines lasso and ridge regression to fuse the sparsity property of lasso with the grouping property of ridge regression. The connections between ridge regression and gradient descent and between lasso and forward stagewise regression have previously been shown. Similar to how the elastic net generalizes lasso and ridge regression, we introduce elastic gradient descent, a generalization of gradient descent and forward stagewise regression. We theoretically…

利用GWAS汇总数据推断非线性因果效应AI 解读

Large-scale genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have offered an exciting opportunity to discover putative causal genes or risk factors associated with diseases by using SNPs as instrumental variables (IVs). However, conventional approaches assume linear causal relations partly for simplicity and partly for the availability of GWAS summary data. In this work, we propose a novel model {for transcriptome-wide association studies (TWAS)} to incorporate nonlinear relationships…

核Stein差异稀疏化：病态的理论视角与正则化的实用修正AI 解读

Stein thinning is a promising algorithm proposed by (Riabiz et al., 2022) for post-processing outputs of Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). The main principle is to greedily minimize the kernelized Stein discrepancy (KSD), which only requires the gradient of the log-target distribution, and is thus well-suited for Bayesian inference. The main advantages of Stein thinning are the automatic remove of the burn-in period, the correction of the bias introduced by recent MCMC…

线性损失函数下的学习：ERM、minmax MOM 及其正则化版本的超额风险与估计界，及在稀疏 PCA 稳健性中的应用AI 解读

Motivated by several examples, we consider a general framework of learning with linear loss functions. In this context, we provide excess risk and estimation bounds that hold with large probability for four estimators: ERM, minmax MOM and their regularized versions. These general bounds are applied for the problem of robustness in sparse PCA. In particular, we improve the state of the art result for this this problems, obtain results under weak moment assumptions as well as…

通过函数型生存分析刻画动态处理效应类型AI 解读

In recent years, research interest in personalised treatments has been growing. However, treatment effect heterogeneity and possibly time-varying treatment effects are still often overlooked in clinical studies. Statistical tools are needed for the identification of treatment response patterns, taking into account that treatment response is not constant over time. We aim to provide an innovative method to obtain dynamic treatment effect phenotypes on a time-to-event outcome,…

过参数化支持向量机中的隐式正则化AI 解读

In this paper, we design a regularization-free algorithm for high-dimensional support vector machines (SVMs) by integrating over-parameterization with Nesterov's smoothing method, and provide theoretical guarantees for the induced implicit regularization phenomenon. In particular, we construct an over-parameterized hinge loss function and estimate the true parameters by leveraging regularization-free gradient descent on this loss function. The utilization of Nesterov's…

未观测分组异方差与固定效应AI 解读

This paper extends the linear grouped fixed effects (GFE) panel model to allow for heteroskedasticity from a discrete latent group variable. Key features of GFE are preserved, such as individuals belonging to one of a finite number of groups and group membership is unrestricted and estimated. Ignoring group heteroskedasticity may lead to poor classification, which is detrimental to finite sample bias and standard errors of estimators. I introduce the "weighted grouped fixed…

CATE Lasso：高维线性回归中的条件平均处理效应估计AI 解读

In causal inference about two treatments, Conditional Average Treatment Effects (CATEs) play an important role as a quantity representing an individualized causal effect, defined as a difference between the expected outcomes of the two treatments conditioned on covariates. This study assumes two linear regression models between a potential outcome and covariates of the two treatments and defines CATEs as a difference between the linear regression models. Then, we propose a…

含生成回归变量的半参数模型自助法设定检验AI 解读

This paper provides a specification test for semiparametric models with nonparametrically generated regressors. Such variables are not observed by the researcher but are nonparametrically identified and estimable. Applications of the test include models with endogenous regressors identified by control functions, semiparametric sample selection models, or binary games with incomplete information. The statistic is built from the residuals of the semiparametric model. A novel…

通过剥离算法实现广义线性模型的因果发现AI 解读

This article presents a novel method for causal discovery with generalized structural equation models suited for analyzing diverse types of outcomes, including discrete, continuous, and mixed data. Causal discovery often faces challenges due to unmeasured confounders that hinder the identification of causal relationships. The proposed approach addresses this issue by developing two peeling algorithms (bottom-up and top-down) to ascertain causal relationships and valid…

非参数回归的涵盖检验AI 解读

We set up a formal framework to characterize encompassing of nonparametric models through the L2 distance. We contrast it to previous literature on the comparison of nonparametric regression models. We then develop testing procedures for the encompassing hypothesis that are fully nonparametric. Our test statistics depend on kernel regression, raising the issue of bandwidth's choice. We investigate two alternative approaches to obtain a "small bias property" for our test…

使用 PNAR R 包进行网络计数时间序列推断AI 解读

We introduce a new R package useful for inference about network count time series. Such data are frequently encountered in statistics and they are usually treated as multivariate time series. Their statistical analysis is based on linear or log linear models. Nonlinear models, which have been applied successfully in several research areas, have been neglected from such applications mainly because of their computational complexity. We provide R users the flexibility to fit…

无需对工具变量平滑的部分线性工具变量回归AI 解读

We consider a semiparametric partly linear model identified by instrumental variables. We propose an estimation method that does not smooth on the instruments and we extend the Landweber-Fridman regularization scheme to the estimation of this semiparametric model. We then show the asymptotic normality of the parametric estimator and obtain the convergence rate for the nonparametric estimator. Our estimator that does not smooth on the instruments coincides with a typical…