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局部平均处理效应的随机化置信集合AI 解读

We consider the problem of generating confidence sets in randomized experiments with noncompliance. We show that a refinement of a randomization-based procedure proposed by Imbens and Rosenbaum (2005) has desirable properties. Namely, we show that using a studentized Anderson--Rubin-type statistic as a test statistic yields confidence sets that are finite-sample exact under treatment effect homogeneity, and remain asymptotically valid for the Local Average Treatment Effect…

用于高维矩阵时间序列双聚类的因子建模AI 解读

A novel unsupervised learning method is proposed in this paper for biclustering large-dimensional matrix-valued time series based on an entirely new latent two-way factor structure. Each block cluster is characterized by its own row and column cluster-specific factors in addition to some common matrix factors which impact on all the matrix time series. We first estimate the global loading spaces by projecting the observation matrices onto the row or column loading space…

部分观测线性因果模型的参数可识别性AI 解读

Linear causal models are important tools for modeling causal dependencies and yet in practice, only a subset of the variables can be observed. In this paper, we examine the parameter identifiability of these models by investigating whether the edge coefficients can be recovered given the causal structure and partially observed data. Our setting is more general than that of prior research - we allow all variables, including both observed and latent ones, to be flexibly…

对抗变换粒子滤波AI 解读

The particle filter (PF) and the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) are widely used for approximate inference in state-space models. From a Bayesian perspective, these algorithms represent the prior by an ensemble of particles and update it to the posterior with new observations over time. However, the PF often suffers from weight degeneracy in high-dimensional settings, whereas the EnKF relies on linear Gaussian assumptions that can introduce significant approximation errors. In…

网络干扰下兼顾估计精度与遗憾的在线实验设计AI 解读

Network interference has attracted significant attention in the field of causal inference, encapsulating various sociological behaviors where the treatment assigned to one individual within a network may affect the outcomes of others, such as their neighbors. A key challenge in this setting is that standard causal inference methods often assume independent treatment effects among individuals, which may not hold in networked environments. To estimate interference-aware causal…

回应关于估计条件关系的近期批评：对 Hainmueller、Mummolo 与 Xu（2019）的澄清AI 解读

Simonsohn (2024a) and Simonsohn (2024b) critique Hainmueller, Mummolo and Xu (2019, HMX), arguing that failing to model nonlinear relationships between the treatment and moderator leads to biased marginal effect estimates and uncontrolled Type-I error rates. While these critiques highlight the issue of under-modeling nonlinearity in applied research, they are fundamentally flawed in several key ways. First, the causal estimand for interaction effects and the necessary…

成对有效的工具变量AI 解读

Finding valid instruments is difficult. We propose Validity Set Instrumental Variable (VSIV) estimation, a method for estimating local average treatment effects (LATEs) in heterogeneous causal effect models when the instruments are partially invalid. We consider settings with pairwise valid instruments, that is, instruments that are valid for a subset of instrument value pairs. VSIV estimation exploits testable implications of instrument validity to remove invalid pairs and…

多尺度共形预测：具有覆盖保证的理论框架AI 解读

We propose a multi-scale extension of conformal prediction, an approach that constructs prediction sets with finite-sample coverage guarantees under minimal statistical assumptions. Classic conformal prediction relies on a single notion of conformity, overlooking the multi-level structures that arise in applications such as image analysis, hierarchical data exploration, and multi-resolution time series modeling. In contrast, the proposed framework defines a distinct…

从统计目标量到机器学习估计量：面向流行病学研究者的推导指南AI 解读

Epidemiologists increasingly use causal inference methods that rely on machine learning, as these approaches can relax unnecessary model specification assumptions. While deriving and studying asymptotic properties of such estimators is a task usually associated with statisticians, it is useful for epidemiologists to understand the steps involved, as epidemiologists are often at the forefront of defining important new research questions and translating them into new…

计数时间序列 GARMA 模型的贝叶斯阶数选择AI 解读

Estimation in GARMA models has traditionally been carried out under the frequentist approach. To date, Bayesian approaches for such estimation have been relatively limited. In the context of GARMA models for count time series, Bayesian estimation achieves satisfactory results in terms of point estimation. Model selection in this context often relies on the use of information criteria. Despite its prominence in the literature, the use of information criteria for model…

排名时间序列分析：一种 GARCH 型方法AI 解读

Ranking data are frequently obtained nowadays but there are still scarce methods for treating these data when temporally observed. The present paper contributes to this topic by proposing and developing novel models for handling time series of ranking data. We introduce a class of time-varying ranking models inspired by the Generalized AutoRegressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) models. More specifically, the temporal dynamics are defined by the conditional…

利用神经网络估计结构模型参数AI 解读

We study an alternative use of machine learning. We train neural nets to provide the parameter estimate of a given (structural) econometric model, for example, discrete choice or consumer search. Training examples consist of datasets generated by the econometric model under a range of parameter values. The neural net takes the moments of a dataset as input and tries to recognize the parameter value underlying that dataset. Besides the point estimate, the neural net can also…

高斯平滑转换向量自回归模型及严重天气冲击的宏观效应AI 解读

We introduce a new smooth transition vector autoregressive model with a Gaussian conditional distribution and transition weights that, for a $p$th order model, depend on the full distribution of the preceding $p$ observations. Specifically, the transition weight of each regime increases in its relative weighted likelihood. This data-driven approach facilitates capturing complex switching dynamics, enhancing the identification of gradual regime shifts. In an empirical…

密度值函数型面板数据的预测AI 解读

We introduce a statistical method for modeling and forecasting functional panel data represented by multiple densities. Density functions are nonnegative and have a constrained integral and thus do not constitute a linear vector space. We implement a center log-ratio transformation to transform densities into unconstrained functions. These functions exhibit cross-sectional correlation and temporal dependence. Via a functional analysis of variance decomposition, we decompose…

平均处理效应自适应估计的乐观算法AI 解读

Estimation and inference for the Average Treatment Effect (ATE) is a cornerstone of causal inference and often serves as the foundation for developing procedures for more complicated settings. Although traditionally analyzed in a batch setting, recent advances in martingale theory have paved the way for adaptive methods that can enhance the power of downstream inference. Despite these advances, progress in understanding and developing adaptive algorithms remains in its early…

采用 Dirichlet–Laplace 先验的贝叶斯层级 Copula 模型AI 解读

We discuss a Bayesian hierarchical copula model for clusters of financial time series. A similar approach has been developed in recent paper. However, the prior distributions proposed there do not always provide a proper posterior. In order to circumvent the problem, we adopt a proper global-local shrinkage prior, which is also able to account for potential dependence structures among different clusters. The performance of the proposed model is presented via simulations and…

用于贝叶斯变量选择的 Beta Cauchy-Cauchy 收缩先验AI 解读

This paper introduces a novel Bayesian approach for variable selection in high-dimensional and potentially sparse regression settings. Our method replaces the indicator variables in the traditional spike and slab prior with continuous, Beta-distributed random variables and places half Cauchy priors over the parameters of the Beta distribution, which significantly improves the predictive and inferential performance of the technique. Similar to shrinkage methods, our…

一般聚束设计中的识别与推断AI 解读

This paper develops an econometric framework and tools for the identification and inference of a structural parameter in general bunching designs. We present point and partial identification results, which generalize previous approaches in the literature. The key assumption for point identification is the analyticity of the counterfactual density, which defines a broader class of distributions than many commonly used parametric families. In the partial identification…

ARR2 先验：贝叶斯自回归模型的灵活预测先验AI 解读

We present the ARR2 prior, a joint prior over the auto-regressive components in Bayesian time-series models and their induced $R^2$. Compared to other priors designed for times-series models, the ARR2 prior allows for flexible and intuitive shrinkage. We derive the prior for pure auto-regressive models, and extend it to auto-regressive models with exogenous inputs, and state-space models. Through both simulations and real-world modelling exercises, we demonstrate the…

标准高斯设计下正则化Cox回归的可观测渐近性质：统计力学方法AI 解读

We study the asymptotic behaviour of the Regularized Maximum Partial Likelihood Estimator (RMPLE) in the proportional limit, considering an arbitrary convex regularizer and assuming that the covariates $\mathbf{X}_i\in\mathbb{R}^{p}$ follow a multivariate Gaussian law with covariance $\mathbf{I}_p/p$ for each $i=1, \dots, n$. In order to efficiently compute the estimator under investigation, we propose a modified Approximate Message Passing (AMP) algorithm, that we name…

近似随机化检验中的聚类合并方法AI 解读

This paper develops procedures to combine clusters for the approximate randomization test proposed by Canay, Romano, and Shaikh (2017). Their test can be used to conduct inference with a small number of clusters and imposes weak requirements on the correlation structure. However, their test requires the target parameter to be identified within each cluster. A leading example where this requirement fails to hold is when a variable has no variation within clusters. For…

MXMap：动力系统因果发现的多变量交叉映射框架AI 解读

Convergent Cross Mapping (CCM) is a powerful method for detecting causality in coupled nonlinear dynamical systems, providing a model-free approach to capture dynamic causal interactions. Partial Cross Mapping (PCM) was introduced as an extension of CCM to address indirect causality in three-variable systems by comparing cross-mapping quality between direct cause-effect mapping and indirect mapping through an intermediate conditioning variable. However, PCM remains limited…

尺度不敏感的神经网络显著性检验AI 解读

This paper develops a scale-insensitive framework for neural network significance testing, substantially generalizing existing approaches through three key innovations. First, we replace metric entropy calculations with Rademacher complexity bounds, enabling the analysis of neural networks without requiring bounded weights or specific architectural constraints. Second, we weaken the regularity conditions on the target function to require only Sobolev space membership $H^s([-1,1]^d)$…

神经微分方程分布学习：最小能量正则化与逼近理论AI 解读

Neural ordinary differential equations (ODEs) provide expressive representations of invertible transport maps that can be used to approximate complex probability distributions, e.g., for generative modeling, density estimation, and Bayesian inference. We show that for a large class of transport maps $T$, there exists a time-dependent ODE velocity field realizing a straight-line interpolation $(1-t)x + tT(x)$, $t \in [0,1]$, of the displacement induced by the map. Moreover,…