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超越马尔可夫等价类的稳健因果效应识别AI 解读

Causal effect identification typically requires a fully specified causal graph, which can be difficult to obtain in practice. We provide a sufficient criterion for identifying causal effects from a candidate set of Markov equivalence classes with added background knowledge, which represents cases where determining the causal graph up to a single Markov equivalence class is challenging. Such cases can happen, for example, when the untestable assumptions (e.g. faithfulness)…

结构非线性时间序列模型的脉冲响应分析AI 解读

This paper proposes a semiparametric sieve approach to estimate impulse response functions of nonlinear time series within a general class of structural autoregressive models. We prove that a two-step procedure can flexibly accommodate nonlinear specifications while avoiding the need to choose fixed parametric forms. Sieve impulse responses are proven to be consistent by deriving uniform estimation guarantees, and an iterative algorithm makes it straightforward to compute…

KANITE：用于个体处理效应估计的 Kolmogorov–Arnold 网络AI 解读

We introduce KANITE, a framework leveraging Kolmogorov-Arnold Networks (KANs) for Individual Treatment Effect (ITE) estimation under multiple treatments setting in causal inference. By utilizing KAN's unique abilities to learn univariate activation functions as opposed to learning linear weights by Multi-Layer Perceptrons (MLPs), we improve the estimates of ITEs. The KANITE framework comprises two key architectures: 1.Integral Probability Metric (IPM) architecture: This…

可识别且可解释的非参数因子分析AI 解读

Factor models are widely used to reduce dimensionality in modeling high-dimensional data. However, there remains a need for models that can be reliably fit in modest sample sizes and are identifiable, interpretable, and flexible. To address this gap, we propose a NIFTY model that uses a linear factor structure with Gaussian residuals, but with a novel latent variable modeling structure. In particular, we model each latent variable as a one-dimensional nonlinear mapping of a…

二元结果随机实验精确置信区间的快速计算AI 解读

Given a randomized experiment with binary outcomes, exact confidence intervals for the average causal effect of the treatment can be computed through a series of permutation tests. This approach requires minimal assumptions and is valid for all sample sizes, as it does not rely on large-sample approximations such as those implied by the central limit theorem. We show that these confidence intervals can be found in $O(n \log n)$ permutation tests in the case of balanced…

缺失特定独立性与机制变化下的因果推断AI 解读

The recovery of causal effects in structural models with missing data often relies on $m$-graphs, which assume that missingness mechanisms do not directly influence substantive variables. Yet, in many real-world settings, missing data can alter decision-making processes, as the absence of key information may affect downstream actions and states. To overcome this limitation, we introduce $lm$-SCMs and $lm$-graphs, which extend $m$-graphs by integrating a label set that…

图形因果推断算法开发的线性时间基础操作AI 解读

We introduce CIfly, a framework for efficient algorithmic primitives in graphical causal inference that isolates reachability as a reusable core operation. It builds on the insight that many causal reasoning tasks can be reduced to reachability in purpose-built state-space graphs that can be constructed on the fly during traversal. We formalize a rule table schema for specifying such algorithms and prove they run in linear time. We establish CIfly as a more efficient…

时变对数收益波动率的 Schwartz 模型下非线性方差与波动率衍生品定价AI 解读

This paper presents closed-form analytical formulas for pricing volatility and variance derivatives with nonlinear payoffs under discrete-time observations. The analysis is based on a probabilistic approach assuming that the underlying asset price follows the Schwartz one-factor model, where the volatility of log-returns is time-varying. A difficult challenge in this pricing problem is to solve an analytical formula under the assumption of time-varying log-return volatility,…

利用广义残差评估共同因子模型拟合的新框架AI 解读

Assessing fit in common factor models solely through the lens of mean and covariance structures, as is commonly done with conventional goodness-of-fit (GOF) assessments, may overlook critical aspects of misfit, potentially leading to misleading conclusions. To achieve more flexible fit assessment, we extend the theory of generalized residuals (Haberman & Sinharay, 2013), originally developed for models with categorical data, to encompass more general measurement models.…

高维面板数据中的分位数处理效应AI 解读

We introduce novel estimators for quantile causal effects with high dimensional panel data (large $N$ and $T$), where only one or a few units are affected by the intervention or policy. Our method extends the generalized synthetic control method \citep{xu_2017} from average treatment effects on the treated to quantile treatment effects on the treated, allowing the underlying factor structure to change across the quantile of the interested outcome distribution. Our method…

少量处理单位下预测区间、尖锐原假设检验与已实现处理效应推断的关系AI 解读

We study how inference methods for settings with few treated units that rely on treatment effect homogeneity extend to alternative inferential targets when treatment effects are heterogeneous -- namely, tests of sharp null hypotheses, inference on realized treatment effects, and prediction intervals. We show that inference methods for these alternative targets are deeply interconnected: they are either equivalent or become equivalent under additional assumptions. Our results…

精神医学数字研究中非平稳多元时间序列的缺失数据AI 解读

Mobile technology (e.g., mobile phones and wearable devices) provides scalable methods for collecting physiological and behavioral biomarkers in patients' naturalistic settings, as well as opportunities for therapeutic advancements and scientific discoveries regarding the etiology of psychiatric illness. Continuous data collection through mobile devices generates highly complex data: entangled multivariate time series of outcomes, exposures, and covariates. Missing data is a…

有多少联邦雇员不满意？利用调查回应时间估计总体比例AI 解读

We propose a statistical model to estimate population proportions under the survey variable cause model (Groves 2006), the setting in which the characteristic measured by the survey has a direct causal effect on survey participation. For example, we estimate employee satisfaction from a survey in which the decision of an employee to participate depends on their satisfaction. We model the time at which a respondent 'arrives' to take the survey, leveraging results from the…

时间序列汇总因果图中基于共同后门集合的可识别性AI 解读

The identifiability problem for interventions aims at assessing whether the total effect of some given interventions can be written with a do-free formula, and thus be computed from observational data only. We study this problem, considering multiple interventions and multiple effects, in the context of time series when only abstractions of the true causal graph in the form of summary causal graphs are available. We focus in this study on identifiability by a common backdoor…

从时间序列学习的动力系统何时具有统计准确性？AI 解读

Conventional notions of generalization often fail to describe the ability of learned models to capture meaningful information from dynamical data. A neural network that learns complex dynamics with a small test error may still fail to reproduce its \emph{physical} behavior, including associated statistical moments and Lyapunov exponents. To address this gap, we propose an ergodic theoretic approach to generalization of complex dynamical models learned from time series data.…

时间序列汇总因果图中调整方法的完整刻画AI 解读

The identifiability problem for interventions aims at assessing whether the total causal effect can be written with a do-free formula, and thus be estimated from observational data only. We study this problem, considering multiple interventions, in the context of time series when only an abstraction of the true causal graph, in the form of a summary causal graph, is available. We propose in particular both necessary and sufficient conditions for the adjustment criterion,…

条件分布拟合优度检验：基于主成分分析的新视角AI 解读

This paper introduces a novel goodness-of-fit test technique for parametric conditional distributions. The proposed tests are based on a residual marked empirical process, for which we develop a conditional Principal Component Analysis. The obtained components provide a basis for various types of new tests in addition to the omnibus one. Component tests that based on each component serve as experts in detecting certain directions. Smooth tests that assemble a few components…

处理历史部分可观测时动态处理效应的识别AI 解读

This paper presents a general difference-in-differences framework for identifying path-dependent treatment effects when treatment histories are partially observed. We introduce a novel robust estimator that adjusts for missing histories using a combination of outcome, propensity score, and missing treatment models. We show that this approach identifies the target parameter as long as \textit{any two} of the three models are correctly specified. The method delivers improved…

Ole E. Barndorff-Nielsen：沙、风与推断AI 解读

This paper reviews Ole Eiler Barndorff-Nielsen's research in the first decades of his career. The focus is on topics that he kept returning to throughout his scientific life, and on papers that he built on in later important contributions. First his early contributions to the foundations of statistical inference are reviewed with focus on conditional inference and exponential families, two topics in which he had a lifelong interest. The second half of the paper reviews his…

利用预训练表示调整混杂AI 解读

There is growing interest in extending average treatment effect (ATE) estimation to incorporate non-tabular data, such as images and text, which may act as sources of confounding. Neglecting these effects risks biased results and flawed scientific conclusions. However, incorporating non-tabular data necessitates sophisticated feature extractors, often in combination with ideas of transfer learning. In this work, we investigate how latent features from pre-trained neural…

显示的信息AI 解读

An analyst observes the frequency with which a decision maker (DM) takes actions, but not the frequency conditional on payoff-relevant states. We ask when the analyst can rationalize the DM's choices as if the DM first learns something about the state before acting. We provide a support-function characterization of the triples of utility functions, prior beliefs, and (marginal) distributions over actions such that the DM's action distribution is consistent with information…

双重差分设计：实务指南AI 解读

Difference-in-differences (DiD) is arguably the most popular quasi-experimental research design. Its canonical form, with two groups and two periods, is well-understood. However, empirical practices can be ad hoc when researchers go beyond that simple case. This article provides an organizing framework for discussing different types of DiD designs and their associated DiD estimators. It discusses covariates, weights, handling multiple periods, and staggered treatments. The…

极端与未观测数据中的处理效应估计AI 解读

Causal effect estimation seeks to determine the impact of an intervention from observational data. However, the existing causal inference literature primarily addresses treatment effects on frequently occurring events. But what if we are interested in estimating the effects of a policy intervention whose benefits, while potentially important, can only be observed and measured in rare yet impactful events, such as extreme climate events? The standard causal inference…

使用不动点树的广义随机森林AI 解读

We propose a computationally efficient alternative to generalized random forests (GRFs) for estimating heterogeneous effects in large dimensions. While GRFs rely on a gradient-based splitting criterion, which in large dimensions is computationally expensive and unstable, our method introduces a fixed-point approximation that eliminates the need for Jacobian estimation. This gradient-free approach preserves GRF's theoretical guarantees of consistency and asymptotic normality…