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Experiments with spillovers create incentives for strategic behavior: when one household member's treatment can affect another, take-up decisions become interdependent. We propose an instrumental-variables framework grounded in game theory, in which take-up is a Nash equilibrium among a small number of agents, and all variables are discrete. Under minimal assumptions, without specifying how equilibria are selected, we derive sharp non-parametric bounds for direct, indirect,…

不完美测量下的部分识别：分布鲁棒方法AI 解读

Imperfect measurements allow different underlying distributions to generate the same observations. Restrictions linking unobserved components can make it difficult to characterize all compatible distributions and compute the resulting range of parameter values. We ask how to construct computable parameter bounds and tighten them without additional data or stronger assumptions. We develop a general framework for partial identification under imperfect measurement based on…

利用补充样本识别面板条件化：锐界与设计假设AI 解读

Refreshment samples are the standard remedy for panel attrition, and the identification results behind them maintain that participation does not change measurement. We characterize what a refreshment sample identifies about panel conditioning, modelled as a deterministic monotone map at reinterview, when attrition is unrestricted. A candidate map is consistent with the data if and only if the retention-scaled distribution of the stayers' implied latent outcomes is setwise…

熵正则化最优传输下的部分识别AI 解读

In many statistical settings, the available data and maintained assumptions do not suffice to uniquely identify the model parameters of interest. In such cases, one can only identify sets which are guaranteed to contain the true parameters. These are often characterized through linear programs that optimize over models compatible with the observed data. These programs can be infinite-dimensional in the optimizer and the number of constraints. We provide a unified way to…

离散选择面板模型中平均效应的界AI 解读

In discrete choice panel data, estimation of average effects is crucial for quantifying the effect of covariates, and for policy evaluation and counterfactual analysis. However, in short panels with individual-specific effects, challenges arise due to partial identification and the incidental parameter problem. In particular, estimating the sharp identified set of average effects becomes impractical when covariates have large support sets, such as when they are continuous.…

多控制变量下工资不平等界的去偏推断AI 解读

We study estimation and inference for a partially identified parameter whose identified set depends on a first-stage nuisance parameter that must itself be estimated. Combining the criterion-function approach with the theory of Neyman-orthogonal moments that underlies double/debiased machine learning, we propose a two-step procedure: the point-identified nuisance is estimated by flexible machine-learning methods, and the set-identified target is recovered as a level set of a…

不可观测异质性的去偏机器学习：高维面板与测量误差模型AI 解读

Developing robust inference for models with nonparametric Unobserved Heterogeneity (UH) is both important and challenging. We propose novel Debiased Machine Learning (DML) procedures for valid inference on functionals of UH, allowing for partial identification of multivariate target and high-dimensional nuisance parameters. Our main contribution is a full characterization of all relevant Neyman-orthogonal moments in models with nonparametric UH, where relevance means…

有序分布变化与保守转移基准：测度、识别与推断AI 解读

Repeated cross-sections reveal changes in ordinal distributions but not the transitions producing them. I axiomatically characterize a threshold-weighted probability metric for ordinal change from threshold-crossing principles. For any threshold-additive ordinal geometry, the discrepancy coincides with the Wasserstein--1 distance induced by that ground metric and measures minimum displacement; its optimizing plans define conservative transition benchmarks. With missing…

结合实验与观察数据对分布处理效应参数的识别能力AI 解读

This study investigates whether and how combining experimental data, in which treatment is randomized, with observational data, in which treatment is self-selected, improves identification of distributional treatment effect (DTE) parameters. Many DTE parameters remain partially identified even under randomized treatment assignment. We show that the combined data reveal how potential-outcome distributions vary across latent self-selection types and that this information fully…

测度线性表示模型中识别、计算与推断的对抗方法AI 解读

We develop a framework for identification, computation, and inference in econometric models with a linear-in-measures representation. These models express maintained restrictions as moment conditions linear in the joint probability measure of observed and latent inputs, and map that measure linearly to the distribution of outputs, even with nonlinear outcome equations. We construct an adversarial discrepancy function whose zeros characterize the identified set for structural…

固定效应模型中的调查参与效应：识别与偏差传递AI 解读

Panel conditioning, the causal effect of prior survey participation on responses, can vary with tenure. Under an additive model of cell means in period, entry cohort, and tenure, we characterize which features of the conditioning path a staggered panel identifies on its observed support, and how the unidentified component affects common panel estimators. The identified set of the path is an affine translate of the tenure projection of the cell design's kernel, and a linear…

存在样本流失时的随机化推断AI 解读

Randomization inference is a widely-used and appealing approach for analyzing treatment effects in randomized experiments, as it is finite-sample valid and does not require any distributional assumptions. However, naive application of randomization inference may suffer from severe size distortion in the presence of sample attrition, where outcome data are missing for some units. In this paper, we propose new, computationally efficient methods for randomization inference that…

不完全信息博弈中单调均衡策略的检验AI 解读

This paper develops a unified framework for testing monotonicity of Bayesian Nash equilibrium strategies in unobserved types in games of incomplete information. We show that, under symmetric independent private types, monotonicity of differentiable equilibrium strategies is equivalent to monotonicity of a quasi-inverse strategy identified from observed actions. This allows the problem to be reformulated as testing a countable set of moment inequalities involving…

有序结果下的正交政策学习AI 解读

Policy learning methods based on conditional average treatment effects can obscure subpopulation heterogeneity when applied to ordinal outcomes. We develop a policy learning framework for ordinal outcomes with heterogeneous utilities for individuals who strictly benefit from treatment and those who do not. Since the probability of strict benefit is only partially identified without further conditions, we adopt a minimax strategy which minimizes the worst-case regret over the…

利用工具变量推断广义主分层条件下的处理效应AI 解读

We propose a general approach to inference for a broad class of models that arise in the analysis of treatment effects with discrete-valued treatments and instruments and a general-valued outcome. In addition to instrument exogeneity, the main substantive assumption in our class of models rules out certain response types by assuming that they occur with probability zero. Here, the response type refers to the vector of potential outcomes and potential treatments, and we refer…

断点回归设计中外推治疗效应的界AI 解读

External validity is a central concern in regression discontinuity (RD) designs. To assess treatment effect heterogeneity and the representativeness of the conventional RD estimand, this paper studies the identifying content of monotonicity and smoothness restrictions for treatment effects away from the cutoff in both canonical and multi-cutoff RD designs. In the canonical design, monotonicity in the running variable alone has limited identifying power and generally yields…

非随机缺失协变量回归的有限样本 Hausdorff 界与 Hadamard 设计敏感性AI 解读

Covariates missing not at random generally prevent point identification of regression coefficients without untestable restrictions. This paper studies linear regression when every missing covariate is restricted to a prespecified compact interval. The resulting population target is the set of best linear predictor coefficients compatible with the observed-data law. Under a non-atomic observed-data law and the stated regularity conditions, we can represent this identified set…

连续结局因果量的贝叶斯可信界AI 解读

The problem of partial identification concerns bounding causal quantities that remain unidentifiable given the observed distribution and the causal diagram of the underlying structural causal model (SCM). While bounds have been developed for certain causal quantities with continuous outcomes, they are necessarily univariate and are unable to reflect differing levels of confidence. Building on previous work in partial identification, we propose a simple Bayesian method for…

由成对互动得到的部分识别排序AI 解读

This paper considers the problem of ranking objects based on their latent merits using data from pairwise interactions. We allow for incomplete observation of these interactions and study what can be inferred about rankings in such settings. First, we show that identification of the ranking depends on a tradeoff between the tournament graph and the link function: in parametric models, such as the Bradley-Terry-Luce, rankings are point identified even with sparse graphs,…

无排除限制时利用分布变动进行识别AI 解读

This paper studies identification and inference in a triangular system with an endogenous regressor when exclusion restrictions are unavailable and the dependence between structural disturbances is modeled through an unrestricted control function. In this setting, standard orthogonality conditions do not deliver point identification, as the unknown control function can rationalize a wide range of structural coefficients. We show that identifying information can be extracted…

多处理、多结果与未测混杂下的部分识别AI 解读

Estimating the health effects of multiple air pollutants is a crucial problem in public health, but one that is difficult due to unmeasured confounding bias. Motivated by this issue, we develop a framework for partial identification of causal effects in the presence of unmeasured confounding in settings with multiple treatments and multiple outcomes. Under a factor confounding assumption, we show that joint partial identification regions for multiple estimands can be more…

利用折点与跳点处聚集行为进行部分识别AI 解读

This paper proposes a partial identification approach to using choices around a kink or notch as a means to overcome endogeneity in a general nonparametric choice model. I show that observed choices are informative about the joint distribution of two counterfactual choices, which leads naturally to analyzing bunching using tools from causal inference. I define as the parameter of interest an average treatment effect among bunchers, which nests the traditional elasticity…

离散抽样或时间聚合自回归模型的参数识别与推断AI 解读

I consider an AR($p$) process that is observed every $q$ periods, either as a snapshot (stock variable) or as a sum over the sampling interval (flow variable). I first characterize the resulting ARMA process followed by observables. Under fairly mild assumptions, I then derive the identified set for general lag lengths $p \in \mathbb{N}$ and sampling frequencies $q \in \mathbb{N}$, I bound its cardinality, and I provide an algorithm to compute all candidate points and…

符号限制与通胀的供需分解AI 解读

Sign restrictions on the slopes of supply and demand curves are often used to identify historical decompositions in structural vector autoregressions. I show that the identifying power of these restrictions depends on both reduced-form parameters and realised forecast errors. Consequently, unlike many other structural objects, the strength of identification cannot be assessed from reduced-form parameters alone. Empirically, identified sets for historical decompositions of US…