日期精度：到日 1039 篇 · 到月 0 篇 · 到年 0 篇
三维引力模型中的潜在非平衡性
Many panel data sets used for pseudo-poisson estimation of three-way gravity models are implicitly unbalanced because uninformative observations are redundant for the estimation. We show with real data as well as simulations that this phenomenon, which we call latent unbalancedness, amplifies the inference problem recently studied by Weidner and Zylkin (2021).
潜在分组生产函数估计的 Classifier-Lasso 方法
I present a new estimation procedure for production functions with latent group structures. I consider production functions that are heterogeneous across groups but time-homogeneous within groups, and where the group membership of the firms is unknown. My estimation procedure is fully data-driven and embeds recent identification strategies from the production function literature into the classifier-Lasso. Simulation experiments demonstrate that firms are assigned to their…
动态时空 ARCH 模型
Geo-referenced data are characterized by an inherent spatial dependence due to the geographical proximity. In this paper, we introduce a dynamic spatiotemporal autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (ARCH) process to describe the effects of (i) the log-squared time-lagged outcome variable, i.e., the temporal effect, (ii) the spatial lag of the log-squared outcome variable, i.e., the spatial effect, and (iii) the spatial lag of the log-squared time-lagged outcome…
交互固定效应面板模型中处理效应的置信区间
We consider the construction of confidence intervals for treatment effects estimated using panel models with interactive fixed effects. We first use the factor-based matrix completion technique proposed by Bai and Ng (2021) to estimate the treatment effects, and then use bootstrap method to construct confidence intervals of the treatment effects for treated units at each post-treatment period. Our construction of confidence intervals requires neither specific distributional…
因果面板模型的双重稳健识别
We study identification and estimation of causal effects in settings with panel data. Traditionally researchers follow model-based identification strategies relying on assumptions governing the relation between the potential outcomes and the observed and unobserved confounders. We focus on a different, complementary approach to identification where assumptions are made about the connection between the treatment assignment and the unobserved confounders. Such strategies are…
少量时期下交互固定效应模型的处理效应
This paper considers identifying and estimating the Average Treatment Effect on the Treated (ATT) when untreated potential outcomes are generated by an interactive fixed effects model. That is, in addition to time-period and individual fixed effects, we consider the case where there is an unobserved time invariant variable whose effect on untreated potential outcomes may change over time and which can therefore cause outcomes (in the absence of participating in the…
依赖观测处理过程的干预分布与因果生存分析中的模型双重稳健性
The generalized g-formula can be used to estimate the probability of survival under a sustained treatment strategy. When treatment strategies are deterministic, estimators derived from the so-called efficient influence function (EIF) for the g-formula will be doubly robust to model misspecification. In recent years, several practical applications have motivated estimation of the g-formula under non-deterministic treatment strategies where treatment assignment at each time…
超高维多国 VAR 的近似贝叶斯推断与预测
Panel Vector Autoregressions (PVARs) are a popular tool for analyzing multi-country datasets. However, the number of estimated parameters can be enormous, leading to computational and statistical issues. In this paper, we develop fast Bayesian methods for estimating PVARs using integrated rotated Gaussian approximations. We exploit the fact that domestic information is often more important than international information and group the coefficients accordingly. Fast…
高维面板中缺失值与协方差的因子插补
Economists are blessed with a wealth of data for analysis, but more often than not, values in some entries of the data matrix are missing. Various methods have been proposed to handle missing observations in a few variables. We exploit the factor structure in panel data of large dimensions. Our \textsc{tall-project} algorithm first estimates the factors from a \textsc{tall} block in which data for all rows are observed, and projections of variable specific length are then…
社会网络的多层纵向分析
Stochastic actor-oriented models (SAOM) are a broadly applied modelling framework for analysing network dynamics using network panel data. They have been extended to address co-evolution of multiple networks as well as networks and behaviour. This paper extends the SAOM to the analysis of multiple network panels through a random coefficient multilevel model, estimated with a Bayesian approach. This is illustrated by a study of the dynamic interdependence of friendship and…
固定效应模型的Bootstrap推断
The maximum-likelihood estimator of nonlinear panel data models with fixed effects is consistent but asymptotically-biased under rectangular-array asymptotics. The literature has thus far concentrated its effort on devising methods to correct the maximum-likelihood estimator for its bias as a means to salvage standard inferential procedures. Instead, we show that the parametric bootstrap replicates the distribution of the (uncorrected) maximum-likelihood estimator in large…
未知聚类结构下的面板数据
Clustered standard errors and approximate randomization tests are popular inference methods that allow for dependence within observations. However, they require researchers to know the cluster structure ex ante. We propose a procedure to help researchers discover clusters in panel data. Our method is based on thresholding an estimated long-run variance-covariance matrix and requires the panel to be large in the time dimension, but imposes no lower bound on the number of…
多重函数型时间序列的聚类与预测
Modelling and forecasting homogeneous age-specific mortality rates of multiple countries could lead to improvements in long-term forecasting. Data fed into joint models are often grouped according to nominal attributes, such as geographic regions, ethnic groups, and socioeconomic status, which may still contain heterogeneity and deteriorate the forecast results. Our paper proposes a novel clustering technique to pursue homogeneity among multiple functional time series based…
门限框架下自助法检验的有效性
We consider bootstrap-based testing for threshold effects in non-linear threshold autoregressive (TAR) models. It is well-known that classic tests based on asymptotic theory tend to be oversized in the case of small, or even moderate sample sizes, or when the estimated parameters indicate non-stationarity, as often witnessed in the analysis of financial or climate data. To address the issue we propose a supremum Lagrange Multiplier test statistic (sLMb), where the null…
协变量驱动暴露与随访下连续暴露对有序结局的边际效应估计
In the statistical literature, a number of methods have been proposed to ensure valid inference about marginal effects of variables on a longitudinal outcome in settings with irregular monitoring times. However, the potential biases due to covariate-driven monitoring times and confounding have rarely been considered simultaneously, and never in a setting with an ordinal outcome and a continuous exposure. In this work, we propose and demonstrate a methodology for causal…
共同相关效应模型的简便替代方法
We study estimation of factor models in a fixed-T panel data setting and significantly relax the common correlated effects (CCE) assumptions pioneered by Pesaran (2006) and used in dozens of papers since. In the simplest case, we model the unobserved factors as functions of the cross-sectional averages of the explanatory variables and show that this is implied by Pesaran's assumptions when the number of factors does not exceed the number of explanatory variables. Our…
含一般因子与回归变量的交互效应面板模型
This paper considers a model with general regressors and unobservable factors. An estimator based on iterated principal components is proposed, which is shown to be not only asymptotically normal and oracle efficient, but under certain conditions also free of the otherwise so common asymptotic incidental parameters bias. Interestingly, the conditions required to achieve unbiasedness become weaker the stronger the trends in the factors, and if the trending is strong enough…
评估兄弟姐妹固定效应模型中的结局间干扰
Sibling fixed effects (FE) models are useful for estimating causal treatment effects while offsetting unobserved sibling-invariant confounding. However, treatment estimates are biased if an individual's outcome affects their sibling's outcome. We propose a robustness test for assessing the presence of outcome-to-outcome interference in linear two-sibling FE models. We regress a gain-score--the difference between siblings' continuous outcomes--on both siblings' treatments and…
面板数据分位数回归的自助法推断
This paper develops bootstrap methods for practical statistical inference in panel data quantile regression models with fixed effects. We consider random-weighted bootstrap resampling and formally establish its validity for asymptotic inference. The bootstrap algorithm is simple to implement in practice by using a weighted quantile regression estimation for fixed effects panel data. We provide results under conditions that allow for temporal dependence of observations within…
交互效应面板中的结构突变与股市对新冠疫情的反应
Dealing with structural breaks is an important step in most, if not all, empirical economic research. This is particularly true in panel data comprised of many cross-sectional units, such as individuals, firms or countries, which are all affected by major events. The COVID-19 pandemic has affected most sectors of the global economy, and there is by now plenty of evidence to support this. The impact on stock markets is, however, still unclear. The fact that most markets seem…
制造业生产率收敛：分层面板数据方法
Despite its paramount importance in the empirical growth literature, productivity convergence analysis has three problems that have yet to be resolved: (1) little attempt has been made to explore the hierarchical structure of industry-level datasets; (2) industry-level technology heterogeneity has largely been ignored; and (3) cross-sectional dependence has rarely been allowed for. This paper aims to address these three problems within a hierarchical panel data framework. We…
面板数据中的缓慢变动个体
Panel data often contain stayers (units with no within-variations) and slow movers (units with little within-variations). In the presence of many slow movers, conventional econometric methods can fail to work. We propose a novel method of robust inference for the average partial effects in correlated random coefficient models robustly across various distributions of within-variations, including the cases with many stayers and/or many slow movers in a unified manner. In…
空间面板模型的局部统计量及美国选举应用
The spatial panel regression model has shown great success in modelling econometric and other types of data that are observed both spatially and temporally with associated predictor variables. However, model checking via testing for spatial correlations in spatial-temporal residuals is still lacking. We propose a general methodology for fast permutation testing of local and global indicators of spatial association. This methodology extends past statistics for univariate…
二维异质面板数据模型的双向整合分析
Heterogeneous panel data models that allow the coefficients to vary across individuals and/or change over time have received increasingly more attention in statistics and econometrics. This paper proposes a two-dimensional heterogeneous panel regression model that incorporate a group structure of individual heterogeneous effects with cohort formation for their time-variations, which allows common coefficients between nonadjacent time points. A bi-integrative procedure that…