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同时估计结构参数与初始条件的稀疏动力系统识别AI 解读

Sparse Identification of Nonlinear Dynamics (SINDy) has been shown to successfully recover governing equations from data; however, this approach assumes the initial condition to be exactly known in advance and is sensitive to noise. In this work we propose an integral SINDy (ISINDy) method to simultaneously identify model structure and parameters of nonlinear ordinary differential equations (ODEs) from noisy time-series observations. First, the states are estimated via…

基于核锚回归的非线性因果发现AI 解读

Learning causal relationships is a fundamental problem in science. Anchor regression has been developed to address this problem for a large class of causal graphical models, though the relationships between the variables are assumed to be linear. In this work, we tackle the nonlinear setting by proposing kernel anchor regression (KAR). Beyond the natural formulation using a classic two-stage least square estimator, we also study an improved variant that involves…

高维非参数可加工具变量回归的估计与推断AI 解读

The method of instrumental variables provides a fundamental and practical tool for causal inference in many empirical studies where unmeasured confounding between the treatments and the outcome is present. Modern data such as the genetical genomics data from these studies are often high-dimensional. The high-dimensional linear instrumental-variables regression has been considered in the literature due to its simplicity albeit a true nonlinear relationship may exist. We…

具有生成模型的线性参数化马尔可夫决策过程的样本高效强化学习AI 解读

The curse of dimensionality is a widely known issue in reinforcement learning (RL). In the tabular setting where the state space $\mathcal{S}$ and the action space $\mathcal{A}$ are both finite, to obtain a nearly optimal policy with sampling access to a generative model, the minimax optimal sample complexity scales linearly with $|\mathcal{S}|\times|\mathcal{A}|$, which can be prohibitively large when $\mathcal{S}$ or $\mathcal{A}$ is large. This paper considers a Markov…

利用跳跃型过程建模比特币价格与媒体关注度AI 解读

In this paper, we present a new bivariate model for the joint description of the Bitcoin prices and the media attention to Bitcoin. Our model is based on the class of the Lévy processes and is able to realistically reproduce the jump-type dynamics of the considered time series. We focus on the low-frequency setup, which is for the Lévy - based models essentially more difficult than the high-frequency case. We design a semiparametric estimation procedure for the statistical…

时间解耦的表征学习AI 解读

Recently in the field of unsupervised representation learning, strong identifiability results for disentanglement of causally-related latent variables have been established by exploiting certain side information, such as class labels, in addition to independence. However, most existing work is constrained by functional form assumptions such as independent sources or further with linear transitions, and distribution assumptions such as stationary, exponential family…

横截面依赖下空气质量评估的时空事件研究AI 解读

Event Studies (ES) are statistical tools that assess whether a particular event of interest has caused changes in the level of one or more relevant time series. We are interested in ES applied to multivariate time series characterized by high spatial (cross-sectional) and temporal dependence. We pursue two goals. First, we propose to extend the existing taxonomy on ES, mainly deriving from the financial field, by generalizing the underlying statistical concepts and then…

具有任务依赖平稳先验的贝叶斯卷积深度集合AI 解读

Convolutional deep sets are the architecture of a deep neural network (DNN) that can model stationary stochastic process. This architecture uses the kernel smoother and the DNN to construct the translation equivariant functional representations, and thus reflects the inductive bias of the stationarity into DNN. However, since this architecture employs the kernel smoother known as the non-parametric model, it may produce ambiguous representations when the number of data…

利用正则化 Riesz 表示元对全局与局部参数进行去偏机器学习AI 解读

We provide adaptive inference methods, based on $\ell_1$ regularization, for regular (semi-parametric) and non-regular (nonparametric) linear functionals of the conditional expectation function. Examples of regular functionals include average treatment effects, policy effects, and derivatives. Examples of non-regular functionals include average treatment effects, policy effects, and derivatives conditional on a covariate subvector fixed at a point. We construct a Neyman…

具有有限样本保证的简明通用去偏机器学习定理AI 解读

Debiased machine learning is a meta algorithm based on bias correction and sample splitting to calculate confidence intervals for functionals, i.e. scalar summaries, of machine learning algorithms. For example, an analyst may desire the confidence interval for a treatment effect estimated with a neural network. We provide a nonasymptotic debiased machine learning theorem that encompasses any global or local functional of any machine learning algorithm that satisfies a few…

金融数据波动动态变点检测的半参数方法AI 解读

One of the most important features of financial time series data is volatility. There are often structural changes in volatility over time, and an accurate estimation of the volatility of financial time series requires careful identification of change-points. A common approach to modeling the volatility of time series data is the well-known GARCH model. Although the problem of change-point estimation of volatility dynamics derived from the GARCH model has been considered in…

简化版 BART 的混合时间下界AI 解读

Bayesian Additive Regression Trees (BART) is a popular Bayesian non-parametric regression algorithm. The posterior is a distribution over sums of decision trees, and predictions are made by averaging approximate samples from the posterior. The combination of strong predictive performance and the ability to provide uncertainty measures has led BART to be commonly used in the social sciences, biostatistics, and causal inference. BART uses Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) to…

非参数模型下分回合部分可观测马尔可夫决策过程的离策略评估AI 解读

We study the problem of off-policy evaluation (OPE) for episodic Partially Observable Markov Decision Processes (POMDPs) with continuous states. Motivated by the recently proposed proximal causal inference framework, we develop a non-parametric identification result for estimating the policy value via a sequence of so-called V-bridge functions with the help of time-dependent proxy variables. We then develop a fitted-Q-evaluation-type algorithm to estimate V-bridge functions…

稀疏机制变化假说下异质环境中的因果发现AI 解读

Machine learning approaches commonly rely on the assumption of independent and identically distributed (i.i.d.) data. In reality, however, this assumption is almost always violated due to distribution shifts between environments. Although valuable learning signals can be provided by heterogeneous data from changing distributions, it is also known that learning under arbitrary (adversarial) changes is impossible. Causality provides a useful framework for modeling distribution…

时间序列模型误差自协方差的贝叶斯估计AI 解读

Autocovariance of the error term in a time series model plays a key role in the estimation and inference for the model that it belongs to. Typically, some arbitrary parametric structure is assumed upon the error to simplify the estimation, which inevitably introduces potential model-misspecification. We thus conduct nonparametric estimation of it. To avoid the difficult bandwidth selection issue under the traditional nonparametric truncation approach, this paper conducts the…

未观测混杂下利用负向对照的因果推断：极小极大学习方法AI 解读

We study the estimation of causal parameters when not all confounders are observed and instead negative controls are available. Recent work has shown how these can enable identification and efficient estimation via two so-called bridge functions. In this paper, we tackle the primary challenge to causal inference using negative controls: the identification and estimation of these bridge functions. Previous work has relied on completeness conditions on these functions to…

利用次序统计量识别拍卖中的未观测异质性AI 解读

We establish nonparametric identification of auction models with continuous and nonseparable unobserved heterogeneity using three consecutive order statistics of bids. We then propose sieve maximum likelihood estimators for the joint distribution of unobserved heterogeneity and the private value, as well as their conditional and marginal distributions. Lastly, we apply our methodology to a novel dataset from judicial auctions in China. Our estimates suggest substantial gains…

右删失生存数据中的断点回归设计AI 解读

In this paper the regression discontinuity design is adapted to the survival analysis setting with right-censored data, studied in an intensity based counting process framework. In particular, a local polynomial regression version of the Aalen additive hazards estimator is introduced as an estimator of the difference between two covariate dependent cumulative hazard rate functions. Large-sample theory for this estimator is developed, including confidence intervals that take…

非参数工具变量模型的有效估计：多种神经网络估计量比较AI 解读

Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) can be viewed as nonlinear sieves that can approximate complex functions of high dimensional variables more effectively than linear sieves. We investigate the performance of various ANNs in nonparametric instrumental variables (NPIV) models of moderately high dimensional covariates that are relevant to empirical economics. We present two efficient procedures for estimation and inference on a weighted average derivative (WAD): an…

将随机试验的生存处理效应推广至目标总体的双重稳健估计AI 解读

In the presence of heterogeneity between the randomized controlled trial (RCT) participants and the target population, evaluating the treatment effect solely based on the RCT often leads to biased quantification of the real-world treatment effect. To address the problem of lack of generalizability for the treatment effect estimated by the RCT sample, we leverage observational studies with large samples that are representative of the target population. This paper concerns…

风险回归的因子增强正则化模型AI 解读

A prevalent feature of high-dimensional data is the dependence among covariates, and model selection is known to be challenging when covariates are highly correlated. To perform model selection for the high-dimensional Cox proportional hazards model in presence of correlated covariates with factor structure, we propose a new model, Factor-Augmented Regularized Model for Hazard Regression (FarmHazard), which builds upon latent factors that drive covariate dependence and…

高维鞅差假设检验AI 解读

In this paper, we consider testing the martingale difference hypothesis for high-dimensional time series. Our test is built on the sum of squares of the element-wise max-norm of the proposed matrix-valued nonlinear dependence measure at different lags. To conduct the inference, we approximate the null distribution of our test statistic by Gaussian approximation and provide a simulation-based approach to generate critical values. The asymptotic behavior of the test statistic…

通过乘法反卷积估计波动率密度AI 解读

We study the non-parametric estimation of an unknown stationary density fV of an unobserved strictly stationary volatility process $(\bm V_t)_{t\geq 0}$ on $\IRp^2 := (0,\infty)^2$ based on discrete-time observations in a stochastic volatility model. We identify the underlying multiplicative measurement error model and build an estimator based on the estimation of the Mellin transform of the scaled, integrated volatility process and a spectral cut-off regularisation of the…

重审倾向得分的核心作用：连接因果机器学习中的平衡与效率AI 解读

About forty years ago, in a now--seminal contribution, Rosenbaum & Rubin (1983) introduced a critical characterization of the propensity score as a central quantity for drawing causal inferences in observational study settings. In the decades since, much progress has been made across several research fronts in causal inference, notably including the re-weighting and matching paradigms. Focusing on the former and specifically on its intersection with machine learning and…