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由成对互动得到的部分识别排序AI 解读

This paper considers the problem of ranking objects based on their latent merits using data from pairwise interactions. We allow for incomplete observation of these interactions and study what can be inferred about rankings in such settings. First, we show that identification of the ranking depends on a tradeoff between the tournament graph and the link function: in parametric models, such as the Bradley-Terry-Luce, rankings are point identified even with sparse graphs,…

无排除限制时利用分布变动进行识别AI 解读

This paper studies identification and inference in a triangular system with an endogenous regressor when exclusion restrictions are unavailable and the dependence between structural disturbances is modeled through an unrestricted control function. In this setting, standard orthogonality conditions do not deliver point identification, as the unknown control function can rationalize a wide range of structural coefficients. We show that identifying information can be extracted…

一步结果插补：多重插补的替代方法AI 解读

Missing outcomes in randomized controlled trials are often handled by multiple imputation (MI). Rubin's rules are routinely used to estimate standard errors but can fail to provide valid standard error estimates for some commonly used procedures, such as reference-based imputation. We propose a one-step alternative by explicitly targeting the treatment effect implied by a given imputation model and constructing an efficient one-step estimator for that treatment effect via…

存在低报的有序选择模型中的变化中变化方法AI 解读

We develop a Difference-in-Differences framework for discrete, ordered outcomes subject to underreporting. Such outcomes commonly arise in self-reported surveys on socially undesirable or stigmatized behaviors, where respondents may conceal their true behavior. For a discrete Changes-in-Changes model that is shown to admit an equivalent threshold-crossing representation, we derive nonparametric bounds for the counterfactual and factual outcome distributions as well as for…

存在干扰时的断点回归设计AI 解读

We extend the continuity-based framework to Regression Discontinuity Designs (RDDs) to identify and estimate causal effects under interference when units are connected through a network. Assignment to an "effective treatment," combining the individual treatment and a summary of neighbors' treatments, is determined by the unit's score and those of interfering units, yielding a multiscore RDD with complex, multidimensional boundaries. We characterize these boundaries and…

利用折点与跳点处聚集行为进行部分识别AI 解读

This paper proposes a partial identification approach to using choices around a kink or notch as a means to overcome endogeneity in a general nonparametric choice model. I show that observed choices are informative about the joint distribution of two counterfactual choices, which leads naturally to analyzing bunching using tools from causal inference. I define as the parameter of interest an average treatment effect among bunchers, which nests the traditional elasticity…

通过贝叶斯非参数方法研究复合决策与经验贝叶斯AI 解读

We study compound decision theory from a nonparametric Bayesian perspective, with particular emphasis on their relationship to empirical Bayes (EB) procedures. Motivated by the sharp risk guarantees available for EB procedures based on the nonparametric maximum likelihood estimator (NPMLE), we investigate whether analogous guarantees can be established for fully Bayesian decision rules. In a class of Gaussian compound decision problems, we show that the fully Bayesian…

注意力过载AI 解读

We introduce an Attention Overload Model (AOM) in which alternatives compete for attention, so each alternative's consideration probability weakly decreases as the choice problem expands. This nonparametric restriction has a search-capacity foundation. We identify exactly which preference rankings are compatible with observed choices and establish sharp bounds on latent attention. We then consider heterogeneous preferences in settings where alternatives are presented in a…

基于正交机器学习的非参数异质性因果中介分析AI 解读

Causal mediation analysis decomposes the total effect of an intervention on an outcome into a direct pathway and an indirect pathway transmitted through a mediator, but standard methods typically summarize these pathways using population average effects. In many applications, however, the indirect effect may vary substantially across individual profiles. We propose an orthogonal statistical learning framework for estimating heterogeneous causal mediation effects conditional…

平均处理效应的局部化：合成控制中的投影方法AI 解读

Many real-world policies and business interventions require assessing short-term effects to inform timely decisions, even though most causal inference methods focus on long-term average treatment effects. In this paper, we introduce average treatment effect localization (ATEL), which captures localized, short-term policy impacts in panel data settings with a single treated unit and provides early indicators of policy impact. To accommodate both time-varying and nonlinear…

Lipschitz 谱算法下 RKHS 回归与序列模型的风险等价AI 解读

Kernel spectral algorithms are often summarized by convergence rates, which hide how their risk depends jointly on regularization, noise, the population spectrum, target coefficients, and the chosen filter. Gaussian sequence models arise as a simplified but characteristic setting for studying the interplay of these factors, where the kernel spectral algorithm corresponds to a coordinatewise shrinkage estimator. Under mild assumptions, we show that the risk of a kernel…

通过双尺度方法改进同方差非参数随机设计回归的方差估计AI 解读

We study estimation of a constant conditional variance $σ^2$ in nonparametric regression with a $d$-dimensional random design. This is an important problem, and similar questions arise in causal inference. The regression function is $β_b$-Hölder smooth, the design density is $β_g$-Hölder smooth and bounded above and away from zero, and we consider the nonparametric regime $β_b>1$ and $d>4β_b$. Set $β_g^\star=β_b(1-4β_b/d)/\{1+2β_b/d+8(β_b/d)^2\}$. We give an estimator whose…

贝叶斯网络通常满足忠实性吗？AI 解读

Faithfulness is a common assumption in causal inference, often motivated by the fact that the faithful parameters of linear Gaussian and discrete Bayesian networks are typical, and the folklore belief that this should also hold for other classes of Bayesian networks. We address this open question by showing that among all Bayesian networks over a given DAG, the faithful Bayesian networks are indeed `typical': they constitute a dense, open set with respect to the total…

病例对照抽样下的回顾性因果归因AI 解读

The probability of necessity PN quantifies the probability that an exposed individual who experienced an outcome would not have experienced it in the absence of exposure. Case-control studies are an important resource for investigating etiologic questions, but their sampling design can introduce selection bias and complicate the statistical inference for PN.In this paper, we develop a nonparametric framework for identification and efficient estimation of PN under…

通过 Q 函数差的正交估计构建以决策为中心的状态抽象AI 解读

Offline reinforcement learning enables evaluation and optimization of sequential decisions from historical data, when it is not possible to deploy new policies online due to safety, cost, and other concerns. Big data advances enable rich state information, but may naively include reward- and action- irrelevant dynamics that are ultimately unnecessary for learning optimal actions. We introduce state abstractions that target preservation of the difference-of-Q functions, and…

仿射估计量聚合的最优收敛率AI 解读

Aggregation of estimation procedures has found important applications in econometrics, statistics, and machine learning. Classical statistical aggregation theory has mainly focused on a \emph{pure aggregation} setting, where the candidate estimators are either deterministic or constructed using a held-out sample independent of that used for aggregation. When the candidate estimators and the aggregation weights are estimated from the same dataset without sample splitting,…

双重稳健泛函最优估计中的辅助函数调参与样本分割AI 解读

Estimators of doubly robust functionals typically rely on estimating two complex nuisance functions, such as the propensity score and conditional outcome mean for the average treatment effect functional. We consider the problem of how to estimate nuisance functions to obtain optimal rates of convergence for a doubly robust nonparametric functional that has witnessed applications across the causal inference and conditional independence testing literature. For several plug-in…

动态空间贝叶斯机器学习：美国代际流动与地理收入不平等应用AI 解读

We develop a Dynamic Spatial Panel Bayesian Additive Regression Trees model with Horseshoe shrinkage (DSP-BART-HS) for high-dimensional spatio-temporal panel data. We jointly evaluate the model against a comprehensive suite of structural spatial econometrics, non-parametric machine learning methods, and small-area estimators across nine data-generating scenarios spanning 200 replicates each, including irregular spatial topologies, dense policy effects, and non-linear…

结构未知模型下双重机器学习估计量的渐近不可容许性AI 解读

Structure-agnostic (SA) models introduced by Balakrishnan et al. (2026) aim to reflect the general lack of knowledge of structural assumptions on data-generating laws such as smoothness or sparsity in practice. Roughly speaking, SA models restrict the observed-data generating law to be in some rn-neighborhood of (black-box machine learning) estimates, treated as given and fixed, where rn encodes the convergence rates of the estimates to the truth. Under SA models,…

代际收入流动性指标的识别与估计AI 解读

Measuring the intergenerational transmission of lifetime economic status is complicated by researchers often only observing snapshots of income at specific ages. Consequently, standard practice estimates intergenerational mobility using income averages, introducing life-cycle bias that compromises reliability and comparability across studies, time, and place. I develop a missing data framework that exploits available income data and observable characteristics to eliminate…

部分干扰与增量倾向得分政策下的高效双重差分估计AI 解读

This paper develops efficient difference-in-differences (DID) estimation under partial interference with a cluster incremental propensity score (CIPS) policy. We define direct and spillover average treatment effects on the treated, establish their identification, and derive their efficient influence functions, from which we construct a cross-fitted estimator. Simulations evaluate its finite-sample performance. An application to China's New Rural Pension Scheme recovers the…

弱依赖非线性时间序列模型准似然估计量的一致高斯近似AI 解读

We study estimation and inference for a semiparametric class of time series models that specify only the conditional expectation, which is a known link function applied to a linear combination of past observations and covariates. The class covers count, binary, bounded and conditionally heteroskedastic responses within a single formulation, and the parameter is estimated by a quasi-likelihood estimating equation based on the first conditional moment. Under stationarity and a…

因果状态依赖局部投影AI 解读

State-dependent local projections (LPs) are widely used to study how causal effects vary as a function of economic states, but shock exogeneity alone does not identify this response function. We show that identification follows when the underlying conditional mean is linear in the shock with a state-dependent coefficient, a condition satisfied in canonical micro-macro environments, including first-order perturbation solutions of heterogeneous-agent and macro-finance models.…

行政删失下利用短期替代指标半参数估计延迟结果处理效应AI 解读

The multi-site registry studies, such as Stepped-wedge cluster-randomized trials (SW-CRT), staggered-enrollment RCTs, etc., share a structural feature: the primary long-term outcome is administratively censored for a non-negligible fraction of units, with censoring driven by calendar design rather than by the outcome itself. Standard inverse-probability-of-censoring weighting becomes unstable when observation probabilities $g_Δ$ concentrate near zero for late-crossing units,…