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成对关系数据核密度估计的一致推断AI 解读

Dyadic data is often encountered when quantities of interest are associated with the edges of a network. As such it plays an important role in statistics, econometrics and many other data science disciplines. We consider the problem of uniformly estimating a dyadic Lebesgue density function, focusing on nonparametric kernel-based estimators taking the form of dyadic empirical processes. Our main contributions include the minimax-optimal uniform convergence rate of the dyadic…

比较两个生存函数多项特征的同时推断程序AI 解读

Survival time is the primary endpoint of many randomized controlled trials, and a treatment effect is typically quantified by the hazard ratio under the assumption of proportional hazards. Awareness is increasing that in many settings this assumption is a-priori violated, e.g. due to delayed onset of drug effect. In these cases, interpretation of the hazard ratio estimate is ambiguous and statistical inference for alternative parameters to quantify a treatment effect is…

多终点优效性与非劣效性同时检验的直接方法AI 解读

Simultaneous tests of superiority and non-inferiority hypotheses on multiple endpoints are often performed in clinical trials to demonstrate that a new treatment is superior over a control on at least one endpoint and non-inferior on the remaining endpoints. Existing methods tackle this problem by testing the superiority and non-inferiority hypotheses separately and control the Type I error rate each at $α$ level. In this paper we propose a unified approach to testing the…

竞争风险观察研究中平均处理效应的重抽样置信区间与置信带AI 解读

The g-formula can be used to estimate the treatment effect while accounting for confounding bias in observational studies. With regard to time-to-event endpoints, possibly subject to competing risks, the construction of valid pointwise confidence intervals and time-simultaneous confidence bands for the causal risk difference is complicated, however. A convenient solution is to approximate the asymptotic distribution of the corresponding stochastic process by means of…

协变量漂移下基于加权共形p值的无模型选择性推断AI 解读

This paper introduces novel weighted conformal p-values and methods for model-free selective inference. The problem is as follows: given test units with covariates $X$ and missing responses $Y$, how do we select units for which the responses $Y$ are larger than user-specified values while controlling the proportion of false positives? Can we achieve this without any modeling assumptions on the data and without any restriction on the model for predicting the responses? Last,…

全基因组研究中基于条件对称多维高斯混合的大规模复合零假设检验AI 解读

Causal mediation analysis, pleiotropy analysis, and replication analysis are three highly popular genetic study designs. Although these analyses address different scientific questions, the underlying inference problems all involve large-scale testing of composite null hypotheses. The goal is to determine whether all null hypotheses - as opposed to at least one - in a set of individual tests should simultaneously be rejected. Various recent methodology has been proposed for…

时间序列部分线性模型的同时推断AI 解读

We introduce a new methodology to conduct simultaneous inference of the nonparametric component in partially linear time series regression models where the nonparametric part is a multivariate unknown function. In particular, we construct a simultaneous confidence region (SCR) for the multivariate function by extending the high-dimensional Gaussian approximation to dependent processes with continuous index sets. Our results allow for a more general dependence structure…

同时方向性推断AI 解读

We consider the problem of inference on the signs of $n>1$ parameters. We aim to provide $1-α$ post-hoc confidence bounds on the number of positive and negative (or non-positive) parameters. The guarantee is simultaneous, for all subsets of parameters. Our suggestion is as follows: start by using the data to select the direction of the hypothesis test for each parameter; then, adjust the $p$-values of the one-sided hypotheses for the selection, and use the adjusted $p$-values…

保序回归中的子群选择AI 解读

Given a sample of covariate-response pairs, we consider the subgroup selection problem of identifying a subset of the covariate domain where the regression function exceeds a pre-determined threshold. We introduce a computationally-feasible approach for subgroup selection in the context of multivariate isotonic regression based on martingale tests and multiple testing procedures for logically-structured hypotheses. Our proposed procedure satisfies a non-asymptotic, uniform…

因果剂量响应函数的非参数推断方法AI 解读

The causal dose response curve is commonly selected as the statistical parameter of interest in studies where the goal is to understand the effect of a continuous exposure on an outcome.Most of the available methodology for statistical inference on the dose-response function in the continuous exposure setting requires strong parametric assumptions on the probability distribution. Such parametric assumptions are typically untenable in practice and lead to invalid inference.…

竞争风险观察研究中平均处理效应重抽样过程的渐近性质AI 解读

In observational studies with time-to-event outcomes, the g-formula can be used to estimate a treatment effect in the presence of confounding factors. However, the asymptotic distribution of the corresponding stochastic process is complicated and thus not suitable for deriving confidence intervals or time-simultaneous confidence bands for the average treatment effect. A common remedy are resampling-based approximations, with Efron's nonparametric bootstrap being the standard…

金融多重检验中的序贯柯西组合检验AI 解读

We introduce a simple tool to control for false discoveries and identify individual signals in scenarios involving many tests, dependent test statistics, and potentially sparse signals. The tool applies the Cauchy combination test recursively on a sequence of expanding subsets of $p$-values and is referred to as the sequential Cauchy combination test. While the original Cauchy combination test aims to make a global statement about a set of null hypotheses by summing…

利用最小熵集合构造函数型时间序列同时预测带AI 解读

Functional Time Series are sequences of dependent random elements taking values on some functional space. Most of the research on this domain is focused on producing a predictor able to forecast the value of the next function having observed a part of the sequence. For this, the Autoregresive Hilbertian process is a suitable framework. We address here the problem of constructing simultaneous predictive confidence bands for a stationary functional time series. The method is…

因子模型下 Benjamini–Hochberg 错误发现比例的中心极限定理AI 解读

The Benjamini-Hochberg (BH) procedure remains widely popular despite having limited theoretical guarantees in the commonly encountered scenario of correlated test statistics. Of particular concern is the possibility that the method could exhibit bursty behavior, meaning that it might typically yield no false discoveries while occasionally yielding both a large number of false discoveries and a false discovery proportion (FDP) that far exceeds its own well controlled mean. In…

含大量协变量的大规模面板数据推断AI 解读

This paper proposes a novel testing procedure for selecting a sparse set of covariates that explains a large dimensional panel. Our selection method provides correct false detection control while having higher power than existing approaches. We develop the inferential theory for large panels with many covariates by combining post-selection inference with a novel multiple testing adjustment. Our data-driven hypotheses are conditional on the sparse covariate selection. We…

分层计数数据的安全序贯检验与效应估计AI 解读

Sequential decision making significantly speeds up research and is more cost-effective compared to fixed-n methods. We present a method for sequential decision making for stratified count data that retains Type-I error guarantee or false discovery rate under optional stopping, using e-variables. We invert the method to construct stratified anytime-valid confidence sequences, where cross-talk between subpopulations in the data can be allowed during data collection to improve…

非可分三角模型中个体处理效应的统计推断AI 解读

In nonseparable triangular models with a binary endogenous treatment and a binary instrumental variable, Vuong and Xu (2017) established identification results for individual treatment effects (ITEs) under the rank invariance assumption. Using their approach, Feng, Vuong, and Xu (2019) proposed a uniformly consistent kernel estimator for the density of the ITE that utilizes estimated ITEs. In this paper, we establish the asymptotic normality of the density estimator of Feng,…

具有复杂趋势的非平稳多元时间序列时变相关网络分析AI 解读

This paper proposes a flexible framework for inferring large-scale time-varying and time-lagged correlation networks from multivariate or high-dimensional non-stationary time series with piecewise smooth trends. Built on a novel and unified multiple-testing procedure of time-lagged cross-correlation functions with a fixed or diverging number of lags, our method can accurately disclose flexible time-varying network structures associated with complex functional structures at…

整群随机试验中 p 值与置信区间的置换式多重检验校正AI 解读

In this article, we derive and compare methods to derive \textit{p}-values and sets of confidence intervals with strong control of the family-wise error rates and coverage for estimates of treatment effects in cluster randomised trials with multiple outcomes. There are few methods for \textit{p}-value corrections and deriving confidence intervals, limiting their application in this setting. We discuss the methods of Bonferroni, Holm, and Romano \& Wolf (2005) and adapt them…

少量处理簇下双重差分推断的扩展AI 解读

In settings with few treated units, Difference-in-Differences (DID) estimators are not consistent, and are not generally asymptotically normal. This poses relevant challenges for inference. While there are inference methods that are valid in these settings, some of these alternatives are not readily available when there is variation in treatment timing and heterogeneous treatment effects; or for deriving uniform confidence bands for event-study plots. We present alternatives…

高维控制变量下条件平均处理效应的双重稳健推断AI 解读

Plausible identification of conditional average treatment effects (CATEs) may rely on controlling for a large number of variables to account for confounding factors. In these high-dimensional settings, estimation of the CATE requires estimating first-stage models whose consistency relies on correctly specifying their parametric forms. While doubly-robust estimators of the CATE exist, inference procedures based on the second stage CATE estimator are not doubly-robust. Using…

线性测量误差模型中的一致推断：分而治之方法AI 解读

It is customary to estimate error-in-variables models using higher-order moments of observables. This moments-based estimator is consistent only when the coefficient of the latent regressor is assumed to be non-zero. We develop a new estimator based on the divide-and-conquer principle that is consistent for any value of the coefficient of the latent regressor. In an application on the relation between investment, (mismeasured) Tobin's $q$ and cash flow, we find time periods…

融合预测变量的多受试者动态功能连接贝叶斯方法AI 解读

Time Varying Functional Connectivity (TVFC) investigates how the interactions among brain regions vary over the course of an fMRI experiment. The transitions between different individual connectivity states can be modulated by changes in underlying physiological mechanisms that drive functional network dynamics, e.g., changes in attention or cognitive effort as measured by pupil dilation. In this paper, we develop a multi-subject Bayesian framework for estimating dynamic…

基于多项比较中首选结果的排名推断AI 解读

This paper considers ranking inference of $n$ items based on the observed data on the top choice among $M$ randomly selected items at each trial. This is a useful modification of the Plackett-Luce model for $M$-way ranking with only the top choice observed and is an extension of the celebrated Bradley-Terry-Luce model that corresponds to $M=2$. Under a uniform sampling scheme in which any $M$ distinguished items are selected for comparisons with probability $p$ and the…