论文检索

二元结果高维广义线性模型中的因果推断AI 解读

This paper proposes a debiased estimator for causal effects in high-dimensional generalized linear models with binary outcomes and general link functions. The estimator augments a regularized regression plug-in with weights computed from a convex optimization problem that approximately balances link-derivative-weighted covariates and controls variance; it does not rely on estimated propensity scores. Under standard conditions, the estimator is $\sqrt{n}$-consistent and…

生成式分位数贝叶斯预测AI 解读

Prediction is a central task of machine learning. Our goal is to solve large scale prediction problems using Generative Quantile Bayesian Prediction (GQBP).By directly learning predictive quantiles rather than densities we achieve a number of theoretical and practical advantages. We contrast our approach with state-of-the-art methods including conformal prediction, fiducial prediction and marginal likelihood. Our distinguishing feature of our method is the use of generative…

时变不可观测异质性离散化后的推断AI 解读

Approximating time-varying unobserved heterogeneity by discrete types has become increasingly popular in economics. Yet, provably valid post-clustering inference for target parameters in models that do not impose an exact group structure is still lacking. This paper fills this gap in the leading case of a linear panel data model with nonseparable two-way unobserved heterogeneity. Building on insights from the double machine learning literature, we propose a simple inference…

基于深度学习的双重稳健格兰杰因果检验AI 解读

Granger causality is popular for analyzing time series data in many applications from natural science to social science including genomics, neuroscience, economics, and finance. Consequently, the Granger causality test has become one of the main concerns of the econometrician for decades. Taking advantage of the theoretical breakthroughs in deep learning in recent years, we propose a doubly robust Granger causality test (DRGCT). Our method offers several key advantages. The…

预后信息的力量：利用结局信息改进协变量平衡检验AI 解读

Scholars frequently use covariate balance tests to test the validity of natural experiments and related designs. Unfortunately, when measured covariates are unrelated to potential outcomes, balance is uninformative about key identification conditions. We show that balance tests can then lead to erroneous conclusions. To build stronger tests, researchers should identify covariates that are jointly predictive of potential outcomes; formally measure and report covariate…

宏观经济预测与机器学习AI 解读

We forecast the full conditional distribution of macroeconomic outcomes by systematically integrating three key principles: using high-dimensional data with appropriate regularization, adopting rigorous out-of-sample validation procedures, and incorporating nonlinearities. By exploiting the rich information embedded in a large set of macroeconomic and financial predictors, we produce accurate predictions of the entire profile of macroeconomic risk in real time. Our findings…

随机实验异质性处理效应估计的去噪IPW-Lasso方法AI 解读

This paper proposes a new method for estimating conditional average treatment effects (CATE) in randomized experiments. We adopt inverse probability weighting (IPW) for identification; however, IPW-transformed outcomes are known to be noisy, even when true propensity scores are used. To address this issue, we introduce a noise reduction procedure and estimate a linear CATE model using Lasso, achieving both accuracy and interpretability. We theoretically show that denoising…

DeepVARwT：含趋势向量自回归模型的深度学习估计AI 解读

The vector autoregressive (VAR) model has been used to describe the dependence within and across multiple time series. This is a model for stationary time series which can be extended to allow the presence of a deterministic trend in each series. Detrending the data either parametrically or nonparametrically before fitting the VAR model gives rise to more errors in the latter part. In this study, we propose a new approach called DeepVARwT that employs deep learning…

利用机器学习估计面板数据连续处理效应：气候应用AI 解读

Economists often estimate continuous treatment effects in panel data using linear two-way fixed effects models (TWFE). When the treatment-outcome relationship is nonlinear, TWFE is misspecifed and potentially biased for the average partial derivative (APD). We develop an automatic double/de-biased machine learning (ADML) estimator that is consistent for the population APD while allowing additive unit fixed effects, nonlinearities, and high dimensional heterogeneity. We prove…

PrivATE：平均处理效应的差分隐私置信区间AI 解读

The average treatment effect (ATE) is widely used to evaluate the effectiveness of drugs and other medical interventions. In safety-critical applications like medicine, reliable inferences about the ATE typically require valid uncertainty quantification, such as through confidence intervals (CIs). However, estimating treatment effects in these settings often involves sensitive data that must be kept private. In this work, we present PrivATE, a novel machine learning…

因果机器学习的敏感性分析：Booking.com 应用示例AI 解读

Causal Machine Learning has emerged as a powerful tool for flexibly estimating causal effects from observational data in both industry and academia. However, causal inference from observational data relies on untestable assumptions about the data-generating process, such as the absence of unobserved confounders. When these assumptions are violated, causal effect estimates may become biased, undermining the validity of research findings. In these contexts, sensitivity…

利用 Riesz 表示开展双重差分处理效应敏感性分析AI 解读

Difference-in-differences (DiD) is one of the most popular approaches for empirical research in economics, political science, and beyond. Identification in these models is based on the conditional parallel trends assumption: In the absence of treatment, the average outcome of the treated and untreated group are assumed to evolve in parallel over time, conditional on pre-treatment covariates. We introduce a novel approach to sensitivity analysis for DiD models that assesses…

文本因果推断的设计式方案：语言模型会不会过大？AI 解读

Many social science questions ask how linguistic properties causally affect an audience's attitudes and behaviors. Because text properties are often interlinked (e.g., angry reviews use profane language), we must control for possible latent confounding to isolate causal effects. Recent literature proposes adapting large language models (LLMs) to learn latent representations of text that successfully predict both treatment and the outcome. However, because the treatment is a…

稀疏高维变系数模型的贝叶斯回归树集成拟合AI 解读

By allowing the effects of $p$ covariates in a linear regression model to vary as functions of $R$ additional effect modifiers, varying-coefficient models (VCMs) strike a compelling balance between interpretable-but-rigid parametric models popular in classical statistics and flexible-but-opaque methods popular in machine learning. But in high-dimensional settings where $p$ and/or $R$ exceed the number of observations, existing approaches to fitting VCMs fail to identify…

利用大语言模型直接猜测条件期望以改善因果估计效率AI 解读

We propose a simple yet effective use of LLM-powered AI tools to improve causal estimation. In double machine learning, the accuracy of causal estimates of the effect of a treatment on an outcome in the presence of a high-dimensional confounder depends on the performance of estimators of conditional expectation functions. We show that predictions made by generative models trained on historical data can be used to improve the performance of these estimators relative to…

统计与深度学习模型在概率电价预测中的不确定性量化分析AI 解读

Precise probabilistic forecasts are fundamental for energy risk management, and there is a wide range of both statistical and machine learning models for this purpose. Inherent to these probabilistic models is some form of uncertainty quantification. However, most models do not capture the full extent of uncertainty, which arises not only from the data itself but also from model and distributional choices. In this study, we examine uncertainty quantification in…

机器学习、偏微分方程与统计中的再生核方法AI 解读

This monograph develops a unified, application-driven framework for kernel methods grounded in reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces (RKHS) and optimal transport (OT). Part I lays the theoretical and numerical foundations on positive-definite kernels; discrete and continuous RKHS; kernel engineering and scaling maps; error assessment via kernel discrepancy/maximum mean discrepancy (MMD); and a systematic operator view of kernels. In this viewpoint, projection, gradient,…

孟加拉国七月革命中镇压与动员的混合方法分析AI 解读

The 2024 July Revolution in Bangladesh represents a landmark event in the study of civil resistance. This study investigates the central paradox of the success of this student-led civilian uprising: how state violence, intended to quell dissent, ultimately fueled the movement's victory. We employ a mixed-methods approach. First, we develop a qualitative narrative of the conflict's timeline to generate specific, testable hypotheses. Then, using a disaggregated, event-level…

利用 ReLU 神经网络扩散模型最优估计可分解密度AI 解读

This paper investigates the score-based diffusion models for density estimation when the target density admits a factorizable low-dimensional nonparametric structure. To be specific, we show that when the log density admits a $d^*$-way interaction model with $β$-smooth components, the vanilla diffusion model, which uses a fully connected ReLU neural network for score matching, can attain optimal $n^{-β/(2β+d^*)}$ statistical rate of convergence in total variation distance.…

二次渐近机制下核随机矩阵与核回归的普适性AI 解读

Kernel ridge regression (KRR) is a popular class of machine learning models that has become an important tool for understanding deep learning. Much of the focus thus far has been on studying the proportional asymptotic regime, $n \asymp d$, where $n$ is the number of training samples and $d$ is the dimension of the dataset. In the proportional regime, under certain conditions on the data distribution, the kernel random matrix involved in KRR exhibits behavior akin to that of…

大量弱无效工具变量下右删失结局的半参数因果推断AI 解读

We propose a semiparametric framework for causal inference with right-censored survival outcomes and many weak invalid instruments, motivated by Mendelian randomization in biobank studies where classical methods may fail. We adopt an accelerated failure time model and construct a moment condition based on augmented inverse probability of censoring weighting, incorporating both uncensored and censored observations. Under a heteroscedasticity-based condition on the treatment…

基于贝叶斯镜像统计量的错误发现率控制AI 解读

Simultaneously performing variable selection and inference in high-dimensional models is an open challenge in statistics and machine learning. The increasing availability of vast amounts of variables requires the adoption of specific statistical procedures to accurately select the most important predictors in a high-dimensional space, while being able to control some form of selection error. In this work we adapt the Mirror Statistic approach to False Discovery Rate (FDR)…

聚合树AI 解读

Uncovering the heterogeneous effects of particular policies or "treatments" is a key concern for researchers and policymakers. A common approach is to report average treatment effects across subgroups based on observable covariates. However, the choice of subgroups is crucial as it poses the risk of $p$-hacking and requires balancing interpretability with granularity. This paper proposes a nonparametric approach to construct heterogeneous subgroups. The approach enables a…

CINDES：分类诱导的神经密度估计与模拟AI 解读

Neural network-based methods for (un)conditional density estimation have recently gained substantial attention, as various neural density estimators have outperformed classical approaches in real-data experiments. Despite these empirical successes, implementation can be challenging due to the need to ensure non-negativity and unit-mass constraints, and theoretical understanding remains limited. In particular, it is unclear whether such estimators can adaptively achieve…