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结合数据驱动模型选择的自适应去偏机器学习AI 解读

Debiased machine learning estimators for smooth functionals in nonparametric models can exhibit substantial variability and instability, often leading practitioners to instead rely on parametric or semiparametric working models. Such models, however, may be misspecified and can therefore introduce bias. We study how data-driven model selection can be combined with debiased machine learning to construct estimators that adapt to structure in the data-generating distribution.…

信息性与非信息性缺失未知混合下的因果效应界限AI 解读

In experimental and observational data settings, researchers often have limited knowledge of the reasons for missing outcomes. To address this uncertainty, we propose bounds on causal effects for missing outcomes, accommodating the scenario where missingness is an unobserved mixture of informative and non-informative components. Within this mixed missingness framework, we explore several assumptions to derive bounds on causal effects, including bounds expressed as a function…

glmnet 的数据驱动配置调优：兼顾精度与计算效率AI 解读

The glmnet package in R is widely used for lasso estimation because of its computational efficiency. Despite its popularity, glmnet occasionally yields solutions that deviate substantially from the true ones because of the inappropriate default configuration of the algorithm. The accuracy of the obtained solutions can be improved by appropriately tuning the configuration. However, such improvements typically increase computational time, resulting in a tradeoff between…

含随机效应与固定效应的空间面板模型梯度提升AI 解读

Due to the increase in data availability in urban and regional studies, various spatial panel models have emerged to model spatial panel data, which exhibit spatial patterns and spatial dependencies between observations across time. Although estimation is usually based on maximum likelihood or generalized method of moments, these methods may fail to yield unique solutions if researchers are faced with high-dimensional settings. This article proposes a model-based gradient…

随机森林的距离协方差迁移学习：误差界与电子病历应用AI 解读

We propose a method for transfer learning in nonparametric regression using a random forest (RF) with distance covariance-based feature weights, assuming the unknown source and target regression functions are sparsely different. Our method obtains residuals from a source domain-trained Centered RF (CRF) in the target domain, then fits another CRF to these residuals with feature splitting probabilities proportional to feature-residual sample distance covariance. We derive an…

大规模因果推断中核估计量的快速不确定性量化AI 解读

Kernel methods are widely used in causal inference for tasks such as treatment effect estimation, policy evaluation, and policy learning. The bootstrap is a standard tool for uncertainty quantification because of its broad applicability. As increasingly large datasets become available, such as the 2023 U.S. Natality data from the National Vital Statistics System (NVSS), which includes 3,596,017 registered births, the computational demands of these methods increase…

广告个性化中位置追踪的隐私与效用权衡AI 解读

Firms collect vast amounts of behavioral and geographical data on individuals. While behavioral data captures an individual's digital footprint, geographical data reflects their physical footprint. Given the significant privacy risks associated with combining these data sources, it is crucial to understand their respective value and whether they act as complements or substitutes in achieving firms' business objectives. In this paper, we combine economic theory, machine…

预测标签与随机缺失标签下的空间稳健推断AI 解读

When outcome data are expensive or onerous to collect, scientists increasingly substitute predictions from machine learning and AI models for unlabeled cases, a process which has consequences for downstream statistical inference. While recent methods provide valid uncertainty quantification under independent sampling, real-world applications involve missing at random (MAR) labeling and spatial dependence. For inference in this setting, we propose a doubly robust estimator…

二元选择模型准最大似然估计的斜率一致性AI 解读

Although QMLE is generally inconsistent, logistic regression relying on the binary choice model (BCM) with logistic errors is widely used, especially in machine learning contexts with many covariates. This paper revisits the slope consistency of QMLE for BCMs. Ruud (1983) introduced a set of conditions under which QMLE may yield a constant multiple of the slope coefficient of BCMs asymptotically. However, he did not fully establish the slope consistency of QMLE, which…

用于美国经济衰退预测的“风险状态”变换AI 解读

We propose a simple binarization of predictors, an "at-risk" transformation, as an alternative to the standard practice of using continuous, standardized variables in recession forecasting models. By converting predictors into indicators of unusually weak states based on a thresholding rule estimated from training data, we demonstrate their ability to capture the discrete nature of rare events such as U.S. recessions. Using a large panel of monthly U.S. macroeconomic and…

面向含噪输入数据的树基预测模型AI 解读

Measurement error is prevalent across all domains of scientific research where only imprecise observations, rather than the true underlying values, can be obtained. For example, estimates of human microbiome diversity are based on small samples from a much larger, generally unobserved system and reflect both sampling error and technical variation. In high-noise settings like these, it becomes difficult to make accurate predictions and to summarize uncertainty. Methods have…

整合随机实验中的异质信息：统一校准框架AI 解读

In modern randomized experiments, large-scale data collection increasingly yields rich baseline covariates and auxiliary information from multiple sources. Such information offers opportunities for more precise treatment effect estimation, but it also raises the challenge of integrating heterogeneous information coherently without compromising validity. Covariate-adaptive randomization (CAR) is widely used to improve covariate balance at the design stage, but it typically…

算法干扰下的治疗效应估计：结构化神经网络方法AI 解读

Online user-generated content platforms allocate billions of dollars of promotional traffic through algorithms in two-sided marketplaces. To evaluate updates to these algorithms, platforms frequently rely on creator-side randomized experiments. However, because treated and control creators compete for exposure, such experiments suffer from algorithmic interference: exposure outcomes depend on competitors' treatment status. We show that commonly used difference-in-means…

面向统计应用的快速 QR 更新方法AI 解读

This paper introduces fast R updating algorithms specifically designed for statistical applications, including regression, filtering, and model selection, where data structures change frequently. Although traditional QR decomposition is essential for matrix operations, it becomes computationally intensive when dynamically updating the design matrix in statistical models. The proposed algorithms efficiently update the R matrix without the need for recalculation of Q, thereby…

利用时间层级预测提高日前电价预测精度：THieFAI 解读

We introduce the concept of temporal hierarchy forecasting (THieF) in predicting day-ahead electricity prices and show that reconciling forecasts for hourly products and 2- to 24-hour blocks can significantly (up to 13%) improve accuracy at all levels. These results remain consistent throughout a challenging 4-year test period (2021-2024) in the German and Spanish power markets and across model architectures, including linear regression, shallow feedforward neural networks,…

用傅里叶级数预测多重季节性分类时间序列：加尔各答空气质量应用AI 解读

Multiple seasonalities have been widely studied in continuous time series using models such as TBATS, for instance in electricity demand forecasting. However, their treatment in categorical time series, such as air quality index (AQI) data, remains limited. Categorical AQI often exhibits distinct seasonal patterns at multiple frequencies, which are not captured by standard models. In this paper, we propose a framework that models multiple seasonalities using Fourier series…

回归不连续设计中直接估计条件平均处理效应的贝叶斯加性回归树AI 解读

Regression discontinuity designs (RDD) are widely used for causal inference. In many empirical applications, treatment effects vary substantially with covariates, and ignoring such heterogeneity can lead to misleading conclusions, which motivates flexible modeling of heterogeneous treatment effects in RDD. To this end, we propose a Bayesian nonparametric approach to estimating heterogeneous treatment effects based on Bayesian Additive Regression Trees (BART). The key feature…

从观察数据估计广告视觉属性效应：生成图像辅助的双重机器学习AI 解读

Digital advertising increasingly relies on visual content, yet marketers lack rigorous methods for understanding how specific visual attributes causally affect consumer engagement. This paper addresses a fundamental methodological challenge: estimating causal effects when the treatment, such as a model's skin tone, is an attribute embedded within the image itself. Standard approaches like Double Machine Learning (DML) fail in this setting because vision encoders entangle…

重症监护中的锚回归域泛化与域适应AI 解读

The performance of predictive models in clinical settings often degrades when deployed in new hospitals due to distribution shifts. This paper presents a large-scale study of causality-inspired domain generalization on heterogeneous multi-center intensive care unit (ICU) data. We apply anchor regression and introduce anchor boosting, a novel, tree-based nonlinear extension, to a large dataset comprising 400,000 patients from nine distinct ICU databases. We find that anchor…

Jacobi 先验：一种替代性的贝叶斯监督学习方法AI 解读

The Jacobi prior offers an alternative Bayesian framework, designed to achieve superior computational efficiency without compromising predictive performance. Compared to widely used methods such as Lasso, Ridge, Elastic Net, uniLasso, the MCMC-based Horseshoe prior, and non-Bayesian machine learning methods including Support Vector Machines (SVM), Random Forests, and Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost), the Jacobi prior achieves competitive or better accuracy with…

使用双重机器学习的双重差分中介分析AI 解读

We propose a difference-in-differences (DiD) framework with mediation for possibly multivalued discrete or continuous treatments and mediators, aimed at identifying the direct effect of the treatment on the outcome (net of effects operating through the mediator), the indirect effect via the mediator, and the joint effects of treatment and mediator, consistent with the framework of dynamic treatment effects. Identification relies on a conditional parallel trends assumption…

异质处理下的效应异质性分析AI 解读

Analysis of effect heterogeneity at the group level is standard practice in empirical treatment evaluation. However, treatments analyzed are often aggregates of multiple underlying treatments which are themselves heterogeneous, e.g. different modules of training programs. In these settings, conventional approaches such as comparing (adjusted) differences-in-means across groups can produce misleading conclusions when underlying treatment propensities differ systematically…

非线性注意力与线性回归的插值误差比较AI 解读

Attention has become the core building block of modern machine learning (ML) by efficiently capturing the long-range dependencies among input tokens. Its inherently parallelizable structure allows for efficient performance scaling with the rapidly increasing size of both data and model parameters. Despite its central role, the theoretical understanding of Attention, especially in the nonlinear setting, is progressing at a more modest pace. This paper provides a precise…

自适应实验因果推断的设计本位理论AI 解读

Adaptive designs dynamically update treatment probabilities using information accumulated during the experiment. Existing theory for causal inference from adaptive experiments primarily assumes the superpopulation framework with independent and identically distributed units, and may not apply when the distribution of units evolves over time. This paper makes two contributions. First, we extend the literature to the finite-population framework, which allows for possibly…