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利用处理后变量研究预测性处理效应异质性的经验分层AI 解读

Post-treatment variables (PVs), such as intercurrent events, treatment noncompliance, and behavioral responses to treatment, provide information about individuals' post-treatment responses and may help characterize heterogeneity in treatment effects on the primary outcome. This paper develops an empirical stratification framework to study the treatment effect heterogeneity across baseline-predicted PV response profiles. Specifically, we construct empirical scores from…

处理状态缺失时，如何学习应该干预谁AI 解读

Policy learning methods are increasingly used to inform treatment allocation under budget constraints. Most proposed methods assume complete treatment data, yet applications frequently suffer from missingness that can bias estimates and lead to suboptimal policies. We address this gap by extending efficient estimators for average treatment effect (ATE) estimation to policy value and conditional average treatment effect (CATE) estimation under missing at random (MAR) and…

用于因果推断的生成式合成数据：陷阱、补救与机会AI 解读

Synthetic tabular data are often evaluated by distributional similarity, privacy distance, or train-on-synthetic-test-on-real predictive performance, but these criteria do not ensure validity for causal inference. We show that fully generative tabular synthesizers, including GAN- and LLM-based models, can preserve predictive utility while distorting average treatment effect (ATE) estimates. The failure is structural: ATE preservation requires both a realistic covariate law…

从向量自回归到人工智能时间序列预测：综述AI 解读

Forecasting is a central goal of time-series analysis. This review centers on three major developments in recent AI-based time-series forecasting: transformers, large pretrained models for zero-shot forecasting, and diffusion-based generative forecasters. We connect these methods to the econometric tradition built around the vector autoregression (VAR) through a common object: the conditional distribution of the future given the past. The review is organized around three…

非高斯误差下的模型不确定性：随机前沿模型的贝叶斯平均与选择AI 解读

The paper investigates Bayesian Model Averaging and Selection (BMA/S) under non-standard stochastic assumptions, focusing on stochastic frontier analysis (SFA). We propose fast, reliable procedures for inference in the normal-exponential stochastic frontier model and examine whether accounting for asymmetric disturbances affects model averaging and/or selection outcomes relative to the conventional Gaussian-error BMA/S. Particular attention is given to moderate-dimensional…

干预分布公式的验证AI 解读

We formalize verification in causal graphical models: deciding whether a given observational formula identifies a target interventional distribution. This opens a problem complementary to identification, asking not whether any identifying formula exists, but whether the given formula is identifying. We show that even sound and complete solutions to identification do not solve verification. We propose a falsifier as a first practical route forward, prove that it induces an…

数据稀缺环境中以全球因子识别地方冲击：意大利区域财政乘数应用AI 解读

We propose a novel econometric methodology for Structural Vector Autoregressions with external instruments (`proxy-SVARs' or `SVAR-IVs') in panel data characterized by strong cross-sectional dependence, dynamic heterogeneity, and limited availability of direct external instruments for the shocks of interest. For each unit, we specify a Factor-Augmented proxy-SVAR (`proxy-FA-SVAR') that incorporates factors summarizing cross-sectional information from the non-policy variables…

利用高维工具变量筛选估计潜在双重网络并开展推断AI 解读

We develop a novel methodology for estimation and inference in high-dimensional panel network models with latent dual structures. The framework allows outcomes to be affected simultaneously by positive and negative interaction channels, accommodating settings in which some interactions reinforce outcomes while others generate competition and displacement effects. The proposed method identifies and estimates the network directly from the structural model using observed data…

多商品多期库存控制的实验设计AI 解读

Randomized experiments, or A/B testing, are the gold standard for evaluating interventions, yet they remain underutilized in inventory management. This study addresses this gap by analyzing A/B testing strategies in multi-item, multi-period inventory systems with lost sales and capacity constraints. We examine two canonical experimental designs--switchback experiments and item-level randomization--and show that both suffer from systematic bias due to interference: temporal…

高维时间序列数据的局部交互自回归模型AI 解读

High-dimensional matrix and tensor time series often exhibit local dependency, where each entry interacts mainly with a small neighborhood. Accounting for local interactions in a prediction model can greatly reduce the dimensionality of the parameter space, leading to more efficient inference and more accurate predictions. We propose a Local Interaction Autoregressive (LIAR) framework and study Separable LIAR, a variant with shared row and column components, for…

智能体经济建模AI 解读

We introduce Agentic Economic Modeling (AEM), a framework that aligns synthetic LLM choices with small-sample human evidence for econometric inference. AEM first generates task-conditioned synthetic choices via LLMs, then learns a bias-correction mapping from task features and raw LLM choices to human-aligned choices, upon which standard econometric estimators perform inference to recover demand elasticities and treatment effects. We validate AEM in two experiments. In a…

聚类处理分配下的遗漏变量偏差敏感性分析AI 解读

Cinelli and Hazlett (2020) develops a sensitivity analysis method for the linear regression model that parameterizes omitted variable bias in terms of two partial $R^2$ parameters capturing the residual variation explained by an omitted confounder in the treatment and outcome respectively. This method is often applied to regressions fit to unit-level data when treatment is assigned at a higher level of aggregation -- as in clustered observational designs. This paper shows…

连续处理随机政策变动下的双重差分AI 解读

Treatment effects of stochastic policy shifts quantify differences in outcomes across counterfactual scenarios with varying treatment distributions. Stochastic policy shifts may be of interest in settings where it is unrealistic or infeasible to deterministically manipulate treatments. In this paper, methods are developed to draw inference about stochastic policy effects under difference-in-differences (DiD) designs with a continuous treatment. The proposed causal estimand…

funFMC：函数型数据的重叠聚类AI 解读

In applications such as neuroscience and environmental science, data are naturally modeled as multivariate functional data and often exhibit overlapping cluster structure. Existing clustering methods for functional data typically impose mutually exclusive memberships and therefore fail to capture such structure. We propose a latent factor model based approach with functional factors and a real-valued loading matrix that encodes potentially overlapping cluster memberships.…

显著性优先分裂：协调处理效应异质性检测与诚实估计AI 解读

Estimating heterogeneous treatment effects (CATE) requires simultaneously detecting effect modification and quantifying estimation uncertainty. Existing tree-based methods make an uneasy trade-off: significance-based approaches (Radcliffe and Surry 2011) identify subgroup interactions directly but lack valid inference; honest causal trees (Athey and Imbens 2016) deliver nominal confidence interval coverage but use outcome-agnostic splitting criteria that sacrifice…

MixCIT：面向混合类型数据的核局部多项式去偏条件独立检验AI 解读

Conditional independence testing (CIT) is fundamental to modern statistical inference in areas related to causal discovery and variable selection. While marginal independence is relatively well-understood, despite multiple advances, no existing non-parametric CIT provides a unified, efficient, and statistically guaranteed solution across heterogeneous data. We introduce a graph-based test statistic comparing kernel similarities of the response within composite neighborhoods…

面向混频数据的注意力非线性目标因子模型AI 解读

We propose the Mixed-Panels-Transformer Encoder (MPTE), a framework for estimating factor models in panels with mixed frequencies and nonlinear signals. Classical factor models rely on linear signal extraction and homogeneous sampling frequencies, limiting their use when variables arrive at different frequencies. MPTE instead uses Transformer-style attention to construct context-aware signals, replacing fixed linear combinations with adaptive reweighting. We extend principal…

分数高斯过程的复合似然推断与序贯最优子集选择AI 解读

The composite likelihood method reduces the computational cost of parameter estimation in time series by considering several subsets of observations instead of all observations at once. The asymptotic properties of this method are related to the Godambe information, an extension of the Fisher information that accounts for the dependence between subsets of observations. We aim to apply this method to linear Gaussian models, in particular fractional Brownian motion and…

处理效应异质性的正交积分条件矩检验AI 解读

We propose a nonparametric integrated conditional moment (ICM) test for treatment effect heterogeneity across subpopulations defined by a given covariate subvector. Under unconfoundedness, the null is recast as a conditional moment restriction based on a Neyman-orthogonal score, which reduces the first-order sensitivity of the empirical process to nuisance parameter estimation. The test statistics are constructed as continuous functionals of a marked empirical process. We…

因子载荷的解释与检验AI 解读

Dynamic Factor Models (DFMs) are popular to reduce dimensionality being customary in the empirical analysis of large systems of macroeconomic and/or financial variables. In this context, the common underlying factors and their loadings are often extracted using Principal Components (PC), which are consistent and asymptotically normal under very general conditions. Consequently, inference on the factor loadings, which is crucial for the correct interpretation of the…

利用外部数据的贝叶斯单臂与混合对照临床试验设计：修正与扩展AI 解读

Limited patient availability complicates sample size determination in pediatric clinical trials. Although Bayesian methods incorporating external data offer a solution, rigorously controlling the type I error rate remains difficult. Psioda and Ibrahim (2019) proposed a simulation-based framework as a practical solution. However, although their framework was designed to relax the type I error control, this relaxation fails when the external data exhibit a large treatment…

分组数据下动态收入分布的贝叶斯状态空间建模与反事实分析AI 解读

Grouped income data contain only limited information about the evolution of income distributions over time. This paper develops a Bayesian state-space model for the generalized beta distribution of the second kind (GB2) to estimate dynamic income distributions using repeated grouped income data. By borrowing information across adjacent periods through the latent GB2 parameters, the proposed framework improves estimation precision relative to independent cross-sectional…

潜在解释变量具有多个非线性测量时的部分识别AI 解读

We study linear regression when the regressor is latent and observed only through multiple noisy measurements, each a smooth but possibly nonlinear function of the latent variable. The problem is acute in the measurement of occupational exposure to artificial intelligence, where competing scores yield downstream estimates that differ by a factor of eleven. A regression on any single measurement recovers a source-specific coefficient rather than the structural one. We fix the…

相关双侧高斯检验中 BH 程序可能无法控制错误发现率AI 解读

We show that the Benjamini--Hochberg procedure can fail to control the false discovery rate (FDR) at its nominal level for correlated two-sided Gaussian $p$-values. We construct a factor model for which, at level $α=0.01$, a rigorous interval-arithmetic certificate proves $FDR>0.0104$ for all sufficiently large numbers of hypotheses. This disproves a conjecture widely believed to be true for twenty years. Monte Carlo experiments are consistent with the theoretical result.…