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面向目标总体的高维校准多源学习AI 解读

Multi-source learning is an emerging area of research in statistics, where information from multiple datasets with heterogeneous distributions is combined to estimate the parameter of interest for a target population without observed responses. We propose a high-dimensional debiased calibration (HDC) method and a multi-source HDC (MHDC) estimator for general estimating equations. The HDC method uses a novel approach to achieve Neyman orthogonality for the target parameter…

平均导数效应的敏感性分析AI 解读

In observational studies, exposures are often continuous rather than binary or discrete. At the same time, sensitivity analysis is an important tool that can help determine the robustness of a causal conclusion to a certain level of unmeasured confounding, which can never be ruled out in an observational study. Sensitivity analysis approaches for continuous exposures have now been proposed for several causal estimands. In this article, we focus on the average derivative…

计量经济学中的主成分分析：选择性推断视角AI 解读

We study the long-standing problem of determining the number of principal components in econometric applications from a selective inference perspective. We consider i.i.d. observations from a $p$-dimensional random vector with $p<n$ and define the ``true'' dimensionality as the rank of the population covariance matrix. Building on the sequential testing viewpoint, we propose a data-driven procedure that estimates $\rank(Σ_X)$ using a statistic that depends on the eigenvalues…

平均处理效应的增广匹配加权估计量AI 解读

Propensity score matching (PSM) and augmented inverse propensity weighting (AIPW) are widely used in observational studies to estimate causal effects. The two approaches present complementary features. The AIPW estimator is doubly robust and locally efficient but can be unstable when the propensity scores are close to zero or one due to weighting by the inverse of the propensity score. On the other hand, PSM circumvents the instability of propensity score weighting but it…

跨年龄与时间人口分析的贝叶斯矩阵因子模型AI 解读

Analyzing demographic data collected across multiple populations, time periods, and age groups is challenging due to the interplay of high dimensionality, demographic heterogeneity among groups, and stochastic variability within smaller groups. This paper proposes a Bayesian matrix factor model to address these challenges. By factorizing count data matrices as the product of low-dimensional latent age and time factors, the model achieves a parsimonious representation that…

网络计数时间序列的新方法AI 解读

The original generalized network autoregressive models are poor for modelling count data as they are based on the additive and constant noise assumptions, which is usually inappropriate for count data. We introduce two new models (GNARI and NGNAR) for count network time series by adapting and extending existing count-valued time series models. We present results on the statistical and asymptotic properties of our new models and their estimates obtained by conditional least…

货币冲击对宏观经济星号变量的影响：SMUC-IV 框架AI 解读

This paper proposes a structural multivariate unobserved components model with external instrument (SMUC-IV) to investigate the effects of monetary policy shocks on key U.S. macroeconomic "stars"-namely, the level of potential output, the growth rate of potential output, trend inflation, and the neutral interest rate. A key feature of our approach is the use of an external instrument to identify monetary policy shocks within the multivariate unobserved components modeling…

图上的拓扑识别与推断AI 解读

Topology identification and inference of processes evolving over graphs arise in timely applications involving brain, transportation, financial, power, as well as social and information networks. This chapter provides an overview of graph topology identification and statistical inference methods for multidimensional relational data. Approaches for undirected links connecting graph nodes are outlined, going all the way from correlation metrics to covariance selection, and…

分批自适应实验的统计推断AI 解读

The advantages of adaptive experiments have led to their rapid adoption in economics, other fields, as well as among practitioners. However, adaptive experiments pose challenges for causal inference. This note suggests a BOLS (batched ordinary least squares) test statistic for inference of treatment effects in adaptive experiments. The statistic provides a precision-equalizing aggregation of per-period treatment-control differences under heteroskedasticity. The combined test…

网络干扰下修正处理政策的因果效应AI 解读

Modified treatment policies are a widely applicable class of interventions useful for studying the causal effects of continuous exposures. Approaches to evaluating their causal effects assume no interference, meaning that such effects cannot be learned from data in settings where the exposure of one unit affects the outcomes of others, as is common in spatial or network data. We introduce a new class of intervention, induced modified treatment policies, which we show…

价格暴露设计的微观基础与因果解释AI 解读

This paper studies regional exposure designs that use commodity prices as instruments to study local effects of aggregate shocks. Unlike standard shift share designs that leverage differential exposure to many shocks, the price exposure relies on exogenous variation from a single shock, leading to challenges for both identification and inference. We motivate the design using a multi sector labor model. Under the model and a potential outcomes framework, we characterize the…

点过程强度函数的孪生核估计：基于轨道正则性的自适应非参数方法AI 解读

We develop TwinKernel methods for nonparametric estimation of intensity functions of point processes. Building on the general TwinKernel framework and combining it with martingale techniques for counting processes, we construct estimators that adapt to orbital regularity of the intensity function. Given a point process $N$ with intensity $λ$ and a cyclic group $G = \langle\varphi\rangle$ acting on the time/space domain, we transport kernels along group orbits to create a…

群轨道上的核输运自适应非参数估计：Oracle不等式与极小极大速率AI 解读

We develop a unified framework for nonparametric functional estimation based on kernel transport along orbits of discrete group actions, which we term \emph{Twin Spaces}. Given a base kernel $K$ and a group $G = \langle\varphi\rangle$ acting isometrically on the input space $E$, we construct a hierarchy of transported kernels $\{K_j\}_{j\geq 0}$ and a penalized model selection scheme satisfying a Kraft inequality. Our main contributions are threefold: (i) we establish…

基于近似消息传递的高维新纽伊-鲍威尔检验AI 解读

We propose a high-dimensional extension of the heteroscedasticity test proposed in Newey and Powell (1987). Our test is based on expectile regression in the proportional asymptotic regime where n/p \to δ\in (0,1]. The asymptotic analysis of the test statistic uses the Approximate Message Passing (AMP) algorithm, from which we obtain the limiting distribution of the test and establish its asymptotic power. The numerical performance of the test is validated through an…

全连接深度神经网络的新逼近结果与最优估计AI 解读

\citet{farrell2021deep} establish non-asymptotic high-probability bounds for general deep feedforward neural network (with rectified linear unit activation function) estimators, with \citet[Theorem 1]{farrell2021deep} achieving a suboptimal convergence rate for fully connected feedforward networks. The authors suggest that improved approximation of fully connected networks could yield sharper versions of \citet[Theorem 1]{farrell2021deep} without altering the theoretical…

建筑材料价格的细粒度预测：计量与机器学习方法AI 解读

The persistent volatility of construction material prices poses significant risks to cost estimation, budgeting, and project delivery, underscoring the urgent need for granular and scalable forecasting methods. This study develops a forecasting framework that leverages the Construction Specifications Institute (CSI) MasterFormat as the target data structure, enabling predictions at the six-digit section level and supporting detailed cost projections across a wide spectrum of…

STARK：用自适应正则化对空间转录组图像去噪AI 解读

We present an approach to denoising spatial transcriptomics images that is particularly effective for uncovering cell identities in the regime of ultra-low sequencing depths, and also allows for interpolation of gene expression. The method -- Spatial Transcriptomics via Adaptive Regularization and Kernels (STARK) -- augments kernel ridge regression with an incrementally adaptive graph Laplacian regularizer. In each iteration, we (1) perform kernel ridge regression with a…

高维回归模型的去偏贝叶斯推断AI 解读

There has been significant progress in Bayesian inference based on sparsity-inducing (e.g., spike-and-slab and horseshoe-type) priors for high-dimensional regression models. The resulting posteriors, however, in general do not possess desirable frequentist properties, and the credible sets thus cannot serve as valid confidence sets even asymptotically. We introduce a novel debiasing approach that corrects the bias for the entire Bayesian posterior distribution. We establish…

产前酒精暴露与儿童认知：半连续暴露的因果推断与证据综合AI 解读

We address the challenge of causal inference status and the dose-response effects with a semi-continuous exposure. A two-stage approach is proposed using estimating equation for multiple outcomes with large sample properties derived for the resulting estimators. Homogeneity tests are developed to assess whether causal effects of exposure status and the dose-response effects are the same across multiple outcomes. A global homogeneity test is also developed to assess whether…

基于核匹配的处理效应估计AI 解读

Kernel matching is a widely used technique for estimating treatment effects, particularly valuable in observational studies where randomized controlled trials are not feasible. While kernel-matching approaches have demonstrated practical advantages in exploiting similarities between treated and control units, their theoretical properties have remained only partially explored. In this paper, we make a key contribution by establishing the asymptotic normality and consistency…

右删失持续时间模型的外生性检验AI 解读

Consider the setting in which a researcher is interested in the causal effect of a treatment $Z$ on a duration time $T$, which is subject to right censoring. We assume that $T=\varphi(X,Z,U)$, where $X$ is a vector of baseline covariates, $\varphi(X,Z,U)$ is strictly increasing in the error term $U$ for each $(X,Z)$ and $U\sim \mathcal{U}[0,1]$. Therefore, the model is nonparametric and nonseparable. We propose nonparametric tests for the hypothesis that $Z$ is exogenous,…

多重假设检验后的效应量推断AI 解读

Significant treatment effects are often emphasized when interpreting and summarizing empirical findings in studies that estimate multiple, possibly many, treatment effects. Under this kind of selective reporting, conventional treatment effect estimates may be biased and their corresponding confidence intervals may undercover the true effect sizes. We propose new estimators and confidence intervals that provide valid inferences on the effect sizes of the significant effects…

增值回归的自动有效推断AI 解读

A large empirical literature regresses outcomes on empirical Bayes shrinkage estimates of value-added, yet little is known about whether this approach leads to unbiased estimates and valid inference for the downstream regression coefficients. We study a general class of empirical Bayes estimators and the properties of the resulting regression coefficients. We show that estimators can be asymptotically biased and inference can be invalid if the shrinkage estimator does not…

多决策时点下个体处理效应的共形预测区间AI 解读

Accurately quantifying uncertainty of individual treatment effects (ITEs) across multiple decision points is crucial for personalized decision-making in fields such as healthcare, finance, education, and online marketplaces. Previous work has focused on predicting non-causal longitudinal estimands or constructing prediction bands for ITEs using cross-sectional data based on exchangeability assumptions. We propose a novel method for constructing prediction intervals using…