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个体数据半参数融合的统一理论探索AI 解读

We address the goal of conducting inference about a smooth finite-dimensional parameter by utilizing individual-level data from various independent sources. Recent advancements have led to the development of a comprehensive theory capable of handling scenarios where different data sources align with, possibly distinct subsets of, conditional distributions of a single factorization of the joint target distribution. While this theory proves effective in many significant…

时间序列的空间分解AI 解读

Spatiotemporal modeling of economic aggregates is increasingly relevant in regional science due to the presence of both spatial spillovers and temporal dynamics. Traditional temporal disaggregation methods, such as Chow-Lin, often ignore spatial dependence, potentially losing important regional information. We propose a novel methodology for spatiotemporal disaggregation, integrating spatial autoregressive models, benchmarking restrictions, and auxiliary covariates. The…

通过神经对抗不变性学习从异质环境中探寻因果关系AI 解读

Pursuing causality from data is a fundamental problem in scientific discovery, treatment intervention, and transfer learning. This paper introduces a novel algorithmic method for addressing nonparametric invariance and causality learning in regression models across multiple environments, where the joint distribution of response variables and covariates varies, but the conditional expectations of outcome given an unknown set of quasi-causal variables are invariant. The…

老年人为何储蓄？利用健康冲击揭示遗赠动机AI 解读

We revisit the saving behavior of elderly singles using an adversarial structural estimation framework by Kaji, Manresa and Pouliot (2023). The method bridges the simulated method of moments (SMM) and maximum-likelihood estimation by embedding a flexible discriminator, implemented as a neural network, that adaptively selects the most informative features of the data. Applying this approach to the model of De Nardi, French, and Jones (2010) with AHEAD data, we show that…

无法匹配数据集的合并数据线性回归AI 解读

We study linear regressions in a context where the outcome of interest and some of the covariates are observed in two different datasets that cannot be matched. Traditional approaches obtain point identification by relying, often implicitly, on exclusion restrictions. We show that without such restrictions, coefficients of interest can still be partially identified, with the sharp bounds taking a simple form. We obtain tighter bounds when variables observed in both datasets,…

高度相关暴露下多变量孟德尔随机化的分组识别与变量选择AI 解读

Multivariable Mendelian Randomization (MVMR) estimates the direct causal effects of multiple risk factors on an outcome using genetic variants as instruments. The growing availability of summary-level genetic data has created opportunities to apply MVMR in high-dimensional settings with many strongly correlated candidate risk factors. However, existing methods face three major limitations: weak instrument bias, limited interpretability, and the absence of valid…

允许因果循环与潜在混杂的贝叶斯因果发现AI 解读

Learning causality from observational data has received increasing interest across various scientific fields. However, most existing methods assume the absence of latent confounders and restrict the underlying causal graph to be acyclic, assumptions that are often violated in many real-world applications. In this paper, we address these challenges by proposing a novel framework for causal discovery that accommodates both cycles and latent confounders. By leveraging the…

存在溢出与部分资格限制的二部实验：总处理效应估计AI 解读

We study randomized experiments in bipartite systems where only a subset of treatment-side units are eligible for assignment while all units continue to interact, generating interference. We formalize eligibility-constrained bipartite experiments and define estimands aligned with full deployment: the Primary Total Treatment Effect (PTTE) on eligible units and the Secondary Total Treatment Effect (STTE) on ineligible units. Under randomization within the eligible set, we give…

Lasso 后双重选择的实证模型：航空运输研究讨论AI 解读

This paper presents and discusses forms of estimation by regularized regression and model selection using the LASSO method - Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator. LASSO is recognized as one of the main supervised learning methods applied to high-dimensional econometrics, allowing work with large volumes of data and multiple correlated controls. Conceptual issues related to the consequences of high dimensionality in modern econometrics and the principle of…

大量弱矩条件与干扰参数下的 GMM：一般理论及因果推断应用AI 解读

Weak identification arises in many statistical problems when key variables exhibit weak correlations-for example, when instrumental variables correlate weakly with treatment, or when proxy variables correlate weakly with unmeasured confounders. Under weak identification, standard estimation methods such as the generalized method of moments (GMM) can produce substantial bias, both in finite samples and asymptotically. This challenge is compounded in modern applications that…

无效代理变量与波动变化AI 解读

When in proxy-SVARs the covariance matrix of VAR disturbances is subject to exogenous, permanent breaks that cause IRFs to change across volatility regimes, even strong, exogenous external instruments yield inconsistent estimates of the dynamic causal effects. However, if these volatility shifts are properly incorporated into the analysis through (testable) "stability restrictions", we demonstrate that the target IRFs are point-identified and can be estimated consistently…

高维协变量下局部平均处理效应的识别稳健推断AI 解读

This paper presents an inference method for the local average treatment effect (LATE) in the presence of high-dimensional covariates, regardless of the strength of identification. We propose an orthogonalized Anderson-Rubin test statistic that maintains uniformly valid asymptotic size. We provide an easy-to-implement algorithm for inferring the high-dimensional LATE by inverting our test statistic and employing the double/debiased machine learning method. Simulation results…

含测量误差半参数模型的简便估计AI 解读

We develop a practical way of addressing the Errors-In-Variables (EIV) problem in the Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) framework. We focus on the settings in which the variability of the EIV is a fraction of that of the mismeasured variables, which is typical for empirical applications. For any initial set of moment conditions our approach provides a ``corrected'' set of moment conditions that are robust to the EIV. We show that the GMM estimator based on these moments is…

合成平行趋势AI 解读

Popular empirical strategies for policy evaluation in the panel data literature -- including difference-in-differences (DID), synthetic control (SC) methods, and their variants -- rely on key identifying assumptions that can be expressed through a specific choice of weights $ω$ relating pre-treatment trends to the counterfactual outcome. While each choice of $ω$ may be defensible in empirical contexts that motivate a particular method, it relies on fundamentally untestable…

分类结果的样本选择偏差校正AI 解读

In this paper, I propose a method for correcting sample selection bias when the outcome of interest is categorical, such as occupational choice, health status, or field of study. Classical approaches to sample selection rely on strong parametric distributional assumptions, which may be restrictive in practice. I develop a local representation that decomposes each joint probability into marginal probabilities and a category-specific association parameter that captures how…

带颜色约束的高斯有向无环图模型AI 解读

We study submodels of Gaussian DAG models defined by partial homogeneity constraints imposed on the model error variances and structural coefficients. We represent these models with colored DAGs and investigate their properties for use in statistical and causal inference. Local and global Markov properties are provided and shown to characterize the colored DAG model. Additional properties relevant to causal discovery are studied, including the existence and non-existence of…

重新理解需求估计AI 解读

This paper clarifies how and why structural demand models (Berry and Haile, 2014, 2024) predict unit-level counterfactual outcomes. We do so by casting structural assumptions equivalently as restrictions on the joint distribution of potential outcomes. Our reformulation highlights a counterfactual homogeneity assumption underlying structural demand models: The relationship between counterfactual outcomes is assumed to be identical across markets. This assumption is strong,…

未观测混杂下预测算法的稳健设计与评估AI 解读

Predictive algorithms inform consequential decisions in settings with selective labels: outcomes are observed only for units selected by past decision makers. This creates an identification problem under unobserved confounding -- when selected and unselected units differ in unobserved ways that affect outcomes. We propose a framework for robust design and evaluation of predictive algorithms that bounds how much outcomes may differ between selected and unselected units with…

含高阶交互的加性模型因果结构学习AI 解读

Causal structure learning has long been the central task of inferring causal insights from data. Despite the abundance of real-world processes exhibiting higher-order mechanisms, however, an explicit treatment of interactions in causal discovery has received little attention. In this work, we focus on extending the causal additive model (CAM) to additive models with higher-order interactions. This second level of modularity we introduce to the structure learning problem is…

具有格结构的多元有序离散响应模型AI 解读

We analyze multivariate ordered discrete response models with a lattice structure, modeling decision makers who narrowly bracket choices across multiple dimensions. These models map latent continuous processes into discrete responses using functionally independent decision thresholds. In a semiparametric framework, we model latent processes as sums of covariate indices and unobserved errors, deriving conditions for identifying parameters, thresholds, and the joint cumulative…

利用空间建模处理协变量测量误差AI 解读

We propose a new estimation methodology to address the presence of covariate measurement error by exploiting the availability of spatial data. The approach uses neighboring observations as repeated measurements, after suitably controlling for the random distance between the observations in a way that allows the use of operator diagonalization methods to establish identification. The method is applicable to general nonlinear models with potentially nonclassical errors and…

合成工具变量：从稀疏关联到稀疏因果效应AI 解读

In many observational studies, researchers are often interested in studying the effects of multiple exposures on a single outcome. Standard approaches for high-dimensional data such as the lasso assume the associations between the exposures and the outcome are sparse. These methods, however, do not estimate the causal effects in the presence of unmeasured confounding. In this paper, we consider an alternative approach that assumes the causal effects in view are sparse. We…

稳定估计时变处理效应的自适应正交化方法AI 解读

Inferring the causal effects of time-varying treatments is often hindered by highly variable inverse propensity weights, particularly in settings with limited covariate overlap. Building on the key framework of Imai and Ratkovic (2015), we establish sufficient balancing conditions for identification in longitudinal studies of treatment effects and propose a novel estimator that directly targets features of counterfactual or potential covariates. Instead of balancing observed…

连续时间动态离散选择博弈的识别与估计AI 解读

This paper considers the theoretical, computational, and econometric properties of continuous time dynamic discrete choice games with stochastically sequential moves, introduced by Arcidiacono, Bayer, Blevins, and Ellickson (2016). We consider identification of the rate of move arrivals, which was assumed to be known in previous work, as well as a generalized version with heterogeneous move arrival rates. We re-establish conditions for existence of a Markov perfect…