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利用大量弱交互矩的构造性工具变量识别与推断AI 解读

Instrumental variable methods are widely used for causal inference, but identification becomes especially challenging when instruments are weak and potentially invalid. These challenges are particularly pronounced in Mendelian randomization, where genetic variants serve as instruments and violations of exclusion restriction or independence assumptions are common. We propose MAGIC, a constructive and assumption-lean framework that achieves identification even when all…

网络干扰下因果推断的线性模型AI 解读

In causal inference, interference occurs when the treatment of one unit may affect the outcomes of other units. The goal of this work is to serve as a guide to the use of linear outcome modeling for estimating causal effects in settings where interference may pose a challenge to identification and estimation, such as spatial and network data. We demonstrate that, under a linear model, causal effects of binary and continuous treatments can be identified in terms of regression…

随机对象非线性中介分析的统一框架AI 解读

Mediation analysis for complex, non-Euclidean data, such as probability distributions, compositions, images, and networks, presents significant methodological challenges due to the inherent nonlinearity and geometric constraints of such spaces. Existing approaches are often restricted to Euclidean settings or specific data types. We propose Random Object Mediation Analysis (ROMA), a unified framework that simultaneously accommodates object-valued exposures, mediators, and…

同时放宽单调性与独立性的工具变量敏感性分析AI 解读

In this paper I develop a breakdown frontier approach to assess the sensitivity of Local Average Treatment Effects (LATE) estimates to violations of monotonicity and independence of the instrument. I parametrize violations of independence using the concept of $c$-dependence from Masten & Poirier (2018) and allow for the share of defiers to be greater than zero but smaller than the share of compliers. I derive identified sets for the LATE and the Average Treatment Effect…

识别应得决策规则以评估与实现公平AI 解读

We study fairness in decision-making when the data may encode systematic bias. Existing approaches typically impose fairness constraints while predicting the observed decision, which may itself be unfair. We propose a novel framework for characterising and addressing fairness issues by introducing the notion of desert decision, a latent variable representing the decision an individual rightfully deserves based on their actions, efforts, or abilities. This formulation shifts…

厚尾时间序列的参数化广义谱AI 解读

Recently, several spectra have emerged, designed to encapsulate the distributional characteristics of non-Gaussian stationary processes. This article introduces parametric families of generalized spectra based on the characteristic function, alongside inference procedures enabling $\sqrt{n}$-consistent estimation of the unknown parameters in a broad class of parametric models. These spectra capture non-linear dependencies without requiring that the underlying stochastic…

面向肥胖遗传变异的超高维数据知识整合分位数回归方法AI 解读

Obesity is widely recognized as a serious and pervasive health concern. We study obesity through body mass index (BMI), which is known to be highly heritable, and identify important genetic risk factors for BMI from hundreds of thousands of single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in the Framingham Study data. Several challenges arise when using traditional genome-wide association studies (GWAS): (1) They suffer from a low power due to a combination of a limited number of…

利用辅助数据集中的工具变量识别因果效应AI 解读

Instrumental variable approaches have gained popularity for estimating causal effects in the presence of unmeasured confounders. However, the availability of instrumental variables in the primary dataset is often challenged due to stringent and untestable assumptions. This paper presents a novel method to identify and estimate causal effects by utilizing instrumental variables from the auxiliary dataset, incorporating a structural equation model, even in scenarios with…

利用非高斯性与辅助协变量识别因果效应AI 解读

Assessing causal effects in the presence of unmeasured confounding is challenging. Although auxiliary variables, such as instrumental variables, are commonly used to identify causal effects, they are often unavailable in practice due to stringent and untestable conditions. To address this issue, previous researches have utilized linear structural equation models to show that the causal effect is identifiable when noise variables of the treatment and outcome are both…

结合 BART 与主分层估计避孕使用对就业的影响：尼日利亚与塞内加尔AI 解读

There is interest in learning about the causal effects of modern contraceptive use on empowerment outcomes. Data on this question often come from family planning (FP) programs that increase access to FP and facilitate contraceptive use among some women, rather than directly assigning use. Women whose contraceptive behavior changes because of these programs ("compliers") may differ from target populations in ways that alter the consequences of contraceptive use for…

通用双重差分的非参数框架AI 解读

Difference-in-differences (DiD) is a popular approach to evaluate treatment effects in settings where both pre- and post-treatment measurements of the outcome are available. Despite its popularity, existing methods face important limitations. Specifically, they either: (i) only apply to continuous outcomes and the average treatment effect on the treated; (ii) are sensitive to the transformation of the outcome; (iii) rely on a no unmeasured confounding assumption given…

以事实结果为条件的回溯反事实预测：跨世界方法AI 解读

Retrospective causal questions ask what would have happened to an observed individual had they received a different treatment. We study the problem of estimating $μ(x,y)=\mathbb{E}[Y(1)\mid X=x,Y(0)=y]$, the expected counterfactual outcome for an individual with covariates $x$ and observed outcome $y$, and constructing valid prediction intervals under the Neyman-Rubin superpopulation model. This quantity is generally not identified without additional assumptions. To link the…

多领域结局下个体化处理效应的最大最小学习AI 解读

Precision mental health requires treatment decisions that account for heterogeneous symptoms reflecting multiple clinical domains. However, existing methods for estimating individualized treatment effects (ITE) rely on a single summary outcome or a specific set of observed symptoms or measures, which are sensitive to symptom selection and limit generalizability to unmeasured yet clinically relevant domains. We propose DRIFT, a new maximin framework for estimating robust ITEs…

集合识别结构向量自回归模型的投影推断AI 解读

We study the properties of the classical \emph{projection} method to conduct simultaneous inference about the coefficients of the structural impulse-response function and their identified set in Structural Vector Autoregressions. We show that -- as the sample size grows large -- projection inference produces regions for the structural parameters and their identified set with both frequentist coverage and robust Bayesian credibility of at least $1-α$. We then calibrate the…

贝叶斯线性高斯因果模型中干预与观测样本的相对价值AI 解读

We investigate the asymptotic properties of Bayesian bivariate causal discovery for Gaussian Linear Structural Equation Models (SEMs) with heteroscedastic noise. We demonstrate that with purely observational data, the posterior distribution over the models fails to consistently identify the true causal structure - a consequence of the fundamental non-identifiability within the Markov Equivalence Class. Specifically, if the true generating mechanism corresponds to a connected…

选择偏差下祖先图的完备因果识别AI 解读

Many causal discovery algorithms, including the celebrated FCI algorithm, output a Partial Ancestral Graph (PAG). PAGs serve as an abstract graphical representation of the underlying causal structure, modeled by directed acyclic graphs with latent and selection variables. This paper develops a characterization of the set of extended-type conditional independence relations that are invariant across all causal models represented by a PAG. This theory allows us to formulate a…

面向MNAR数据的可识别深度潜变量模型AI 解读

Missing data is a ubiquitous challenge in data analysis, often leading to biased and inaccurate results. Traditional imputation methods usually assume that the missingness mechanism is missing-at-random (MAR), where the missingness is independent of the missing values themselves. This assumption is frequently violated in real-world scenarios, prompted by recent advances in imputation methods using deep learning to address this challenge. However, these methods neglect the…

基于复合的正则化回归：多流分布模型的可识别性、结构化惩罚与统计保证AI 解读

Regression by composition provides a flexible framework for constructing conditional distributions through sequential group actions. However, when multiple flows act on the same distribution, the model becomes non-identifiable, leading to flat likelihood regions and unstable estimates. We introduce a structured regularization framework that resolves this issue by assigning flow-specific penalties. The resulting estimator is defined as a penalized maximum likelihood problem…

潜在线性 DAG 下干预计数数据的因果网络发现AI 解读

The increasing availability of interventional data offers new opportunities for causal discovery, with gene perturbation studies providing a prominent example. Such data are typically count-valued and subject to substantial measurement error arising from technical variability and latent state heterogeneity. Motivated by these challenges, we study identification and estimation in latent linear structural causal models for interventional count data. We propose a latent linear…

超越可识别性：少量环境与有限样本下的因果表示学习AI 解读

We provide explicit, finite-sample guarantees for learning causal representations from data with a sublinear number of environments. Causal representation learning seeks to provide a rigourous foundation for the general representation learning problem by bridging causal models with latent factor models in order to learn interpretable representations with causal semantics. Despite a blossoming theory of identifiability in causal representation learning, estimation and…

非参数工具变量回归的共形预测AI 解读

We propose a method for constructing distribution-free prediction intervals in nonparametric instrumental variable regression (NPIV), with finite-sample coverage guarantees. Building on the conditional guarantee framework in conformal inference, we reformulate conditional coverage as marginal coverage over a class of IV shifts $\mathcal{F}$. Our method can be combined with any NPIV estimator, including sieve 2SLS and other machine-learning-based NPIV methods such as neural…

离散因果表示学习AI 解读

Causal representation learning seeks to uncover causal relationships among high-level latent variables from low-level, entangled, and noisy observations. Existing approaches often either rely on deep neural networks, which lack interpretability and formal guarantees, or impose restrictive assumptions like linearity, continuous-only observations, and strong structural priors. These limitations particularly challenge applications with a large number of discrete latent…

存在溢出效应的合成控制方法：识别与贝叶斯推断AI 解读

The synthetic control method (SCM) is widely used for causal inference with panel data, particularly when the number of treated units is small. It relies on the stable unit treatment value assumption (SUTVA), ruling out spillover effects. However, interventions often affect not only treated but also untreated units. This study proposes a novel panel data method that extends standard SCM to account for spillovers and estimate both treatment and spillover effects. The approach…

处理后混杂下集群随机试验因果机制的贝叶斯非参数识别与估计AI 解读

Causal mediation analysis in cluster-randomized trials (CRTs) is essential for explaining how cluster-level interventions affect individual outcomes, yet it is complicated by interference, post-treatment confounding, and hierarchical covariate adjustment. We develop a Bayesian nonparametric framework that simultaneously accommodates interference and a post-treatment confounder that precedes the mediator. Identification is achieved through a multivariate Gaussian copula that…