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聚类样本的渐近理论AI 解读

We provide a complete asymptotic distribution theory for clustered data with a large number of independent groups, generalizing the classic laws of large numbers, uniform laws, central limit theory, and clustered covariance matrix estimation. Our theory allows for clustered observations with heterogeneous and unbounded cluster sizes. Our conditions cleanly nest the classical results for i.n.i.d. observations, in the sense that our conditions specialize to the classical…

稳健决策者动态模型的识别与估计AI 解读

This paper studies identification and estimation of a class of dynamic models in which the decision maker (DM) is uncertain about the data-generating process. The DM surrounds a benchmark model that he or she fears is misspecified by a set of models. Decisions are evaluated under a worst-case model delivering the lowest utility among all models in this set. The DM's benchmark model and preference parameters are jointly underidentified. With the benchmark model held fixed,…

离散选择模型条件矩不等式中的维度诅咒突破AI 解读

This paper studies inference of preference parameters in semiparametric discrete choice models when these parameters are not point-identified and the identified set is characterized by a class of conditional moment inequalities. Exploring the semiparametric modeling restrictions, we show that the identified set can be equivalently formulated by moment inequalities conditional on only two continuous indexing variables. Such formulation holds regardless of the covariate…

利用大量矩不等式推断因果与结构参数AI 解读

This paper considers the problem of testing many moment inequalities where the number of moment inequalities, denoted by $p$, is possibly much larger than the sample size $n$. There is a variety of economic applications where solving this problem allows to carry out inference on causal and structural parameters, a notable example is the market structure model of Ciliberto and Tamer (2009) where $p=2^{m+1}$ with $m$ being the number of firms that could possibly enter the…

增广因子模型：市场风险因子验证与债券风险溢价预测AI 解读

We study factor models augmented by observed covariates that have explanatory powers on the unknown factors. In financial factor models, the unknown factors can be reasonably well explained by a few observable proxies, such as the Fama-French factors. In diffusion index forecasts, identified factors are strongly related to several directly measurable economic variables such as consumption-wealth variable, financial ratios, and term spread. With those covariates, both the…

谱方法与正则化极大似然均可实现最优前 K 项排序AI 解读

This paper is concerned with the problem of top-$K$ ranking from pairwise comparisons. Given a collection of $n$ items and a few pairwise comparisons across them, one wishes to identify the set of $K$ items that receive the highest ranks. To tackle this problem, we adopt the logistic parametric model --- the Bradley-Terry-Luce model, where each item is assigned a latent preference score, and where the outcome of each pairwise comparison depends solely on the relative scores…

含大量矩不等式的部分识别模型中的子向量推断AI 解读

This paper considers inference for a function of a parameter vector in a partially identified model with many moment inequalities. This framework allows the number of moment conditions to grow with the sample size, possibly at exponential rates. Our main motivating application is subvector inference, i.e., inference on a single component of the partially identified parameter vector associated with a treatment effect or a policy variable of interest. Our inference method…

高维计量经济学与正则化广义矩方法AI 解读

This chapter presents key concepts and theoretical results for analyzing estimation and inference in high-dimensional models. High-dimensional models are characterized by having a number of unknown parameters that is not vanishingly small relative to the sample size. We first present results in a framework where estimators of parameters of interest may be represented directly as approximate means. Within this context, we review fundamental results including high-dimensional…

截面与面板数据中的非可分多项选择模型AI 解读

Multinomial choice models are fundamental for empirical modeling of economic choices among discrete alternatives. We analyze identification of binary and multinomial choice models when the choice utilities are nonseparable in observed attributes and multidimensional unobserved heterogeneity with cross-section and panel data. We show that derivatives of choice probabilities with respect to continuous attributes are weighted averages of utility derivatives in cross-section…

多值处理效应的识别AI 解读

Multivalued treatment models have typically been studied under restrictive assumptions: ordered choice, and more recently unordered monotonicity. We show how treatment effects can be identified in a more general class of models that allows for multidimensional unobserved heterogeneity. Our results rely on two main assumptions: treatment assignment must be a measurable function of threshold-crossing rules, and enough continuous instruments must be available. We illustrate our…

广义随机森林AI 解读

We propose generalized random forests, a method for non-parametric statistical estimation based on random forests (Breiman, 2001) that can be used to fit any quantity of interest identified as the solution to a set of local moment equations. Following the literature on local maximum likelihood estimation, our method considers a weighted set of nearby training examples; however, instead of using classical kernel weighting functions that are prone to a strong curse of…

弱信息结构假设下的拍卖推断AI 解读

Given a sample of bids from independent auctions, this paper examines the question of inference on auction fundamentals (e.g. valuation distributions, welfare measures) under weak assumptions on information structure. The question is important as it allows us to learn about the valuation distribution in a robust way, i.e., without assuming that a particular information structure holds across observations. We leverage the recent contributions of \cite{Bergemann2013} in the…

识别集的蒙特卡洛置信集AI 解读

In complicated/nonlinear parametric models, it is generally hard to know whether the model parameters are point identified. We provide computationally attractive procedures to construct confidence sets (CSs) for identified sets of full parameters and of subvectors in models defined through a likelihood or a vector of moment equalities or inequalities. These CSs are based on level sets of optimal sample criterion functions (such as likelihood or optimally-weighted or…

未知样本选择概率下总体均值的形状约束部分识别AI 解读

A prevailing challenge in the biomedical and social sciences is to estimate a population mean from a sample obtained with unknown selection probabilities. Using a well-known ratio estimator, Aronow and Lee (2013) proposed a method for partial identification of the mean by allowing the unknown selection probabilities to vary arbitrarily between two fixed extreme values. In this paper, we show how to leverage auxiliary shape constraints on the population outcome distribution,…

非参数工具变量回归非线性泛函的最优上确界范数速率与一致推断AI 解读

This paper makes several important contributions to the literature about nonparametric instrumental variables (NPIV) estimation and inference on a structural function $h_0$ and its functionals. First, we derive sup-norm convergence rates for computationally simple sieve NPIV (series 2SLS) estimators of $h_0$ and its derivatives. Second, we derive a lower bound that describes the best possible (minimax) sup-norm rates of estimating $h_0$ and its derivatives, and show that the…

工具变量分位数回归模型 GMM 估计量的精确计算AI 解读

We show that the generalized method of moments (GMM) estimation problem in instrumental variable quantile regression (IVQR) models can be equivalently formulated as a mixed integer quadratic programming problem. This enables exact computation of the GMM estimators for the IVQR models. We illustrate the usefulness of our algorithm via Monte Carlo experiments and an application to demand for fish.

依赖限制与仅两期数据下双重差分模型的分位数处理效应AI 解读

This paper shows that the Conditional Quantile Treatment Effect on the Treated can be identified using a combination of (i) a conditional Distributional Difference in Differences assumption and (ii) an assumption on the conditional dependence between the change in untreated potential outcomes and the initial level of untreated potential outcomes for the treated group. The second assumption recovers the unknown dependence from the observed dependence for the untreated group.…

部分干扰下的同伴鼓励设计与局部平均网络效应识别AI 解读

In non-network settings, encouragement designs have been widely used to analyze causal effects of a treatment, policy, or intervention on an outcome of interest when randomizing the treatment was considered impractical or when compliance to treatment cannot be perfectly enforced. Unfortunately, such questions related to treatment compliance have received less attention in network settings and the most well-studied experimental design in networks, the two-stage randomization…

应用计量经济学现状：因果关系与政策评估AI 解读

In this paper we discuss recent developments in econometrics that we view as important for empirical researchers working on policy evaluation questions. We focus on three main areas, where in each case we highlight recommendations for applied work. First, we discuss new research on identification strategies in program evaluation, with particular focus on synthetic control methods, regression discontinuity, external validity, and the causal interpretation of regression…

随机实验的计量经济学方法AI 解读

In this review, we present econometric and statistical methods for analyzing randomized experiments. For basic experiments we stress randomization-based inference as opposed to sampling-based inference. In randomization-based inference, uncertainty in estimates arises naturally from the random assignment of the treatments, rather than from hypothesized sampling from a large population. We show how this perspective relates to regression analyses for randomized experiments. We…

最优工具变量的稀疏模型与方法：征收权应用AI 解读

We develop results for the use of Lasso and Post-Lasso methods to form first-stage predictions and estimate optimal instruments in linear instrumental variables (IV) models with many instruments, $p$. Our results apply even when $p$ is much larger than the sample size, $n$. We show that the IV estimator based on using Lasso or Post-Lasso in the first stage is root-n consistent and asymptotically normal when the first-stage is approximately sparse; i.e. when the conditional…

半参数与非参数条件矩模型的筛 Wald 和 QLR 推断AI 解读

This paper considers inference on functionals of semi/nonparametric conditional moment restrictions with possibly nonsmooth generalized residuals, which include all of the (nonlinear) nonparametric instrumental variables (IV) as special cases. These models are often ill-posed and hence it is difficult to verify whether a (possibly nonlinear) functional is root-$n$ estimable or not. We provide computationally simple, unified inference procedures that are asymptotically valid…

依赖数据下高维矩条件的广义经验似然AI 解读

This paper considers the maximum generalized empirical likelihood (GEL) estimation and inference on parameters identified by high dimensional moment restrictions with weakly dependent data when the dimensions of the moment restrictions and the parameters diverge along with the sample size. The consistency with rates and the asymptotic normality of the GEL estimator are obtained by properly restricting the growth rates of the dimensions of the parameters and the moment…

多控制变量与工具变量线性模型中的选择后及正则化后推断AI 解读

In this note, we offer an approach to estimating causal/structural parameters in the presence of many instruments and controls based on methods for estimating sparse high-dimensional models. We use these high-dimensional methods to select both which instruments and which control variables to use. The approach we take extends BCCH2012, which covers selection of instruments for IV models with a small number of controls, and extends BCH2014, which covers selection of controls…