论文检索

存在混杂时的非线性因果发现AI 解读

This article introduces a causal discovery method to learn nonlinear relationships in a directed acyclic graph with correlated Gaussian errors due to confounding. First, we derive model identifiability under the sublinear growth assumption. Then, we propose a novel method, named the Deconfounded Functional Structure Estimation (DeFuSE), consisting of a deconfounding adjustment to remove the confounding effects and a sequential procedure to estimate the causal order of…

使用人工智能或机器学习生成变量的回归推断AI 解读

Researchers now routinely use AI or other machine learning methods to estimate latent variables of economic interest, then plug-in the estimates as covariates in a regression. We show both theoretically and empirically that naively treating AI/ML-generated variables as "data" leads to biased estimates and invalid inference. To restore valid inference, we propose two methods: (1) an explicit bias correction with bias-corrected confidence intervals, and (2) joint estimation of…

融合Lasso惩罚下Huber回归的高效对偶ADMM算法AI 解读

The ordinary least squares estimate in linear regression is sensitive to the influence of errors with large variance, which reduces its robustness, especially when dealing with heavy-tailed errors or outliers frequently encountered in real-world scenarios. To address this issue and accommodate the sparsity of coefficients along with their sequential disparities, we combine the adaptive robust Huber loss function with a fused lasso penalty. This combination yields a robust…

SARMA：基于张量分解的可扩展低秩高维自回归移动平均模型AI 解读

Existing models for high-dimensional time series are overwhelmingly developed within the finite-order vector autoregressive (VAR) framework. However, the more flexible vector autoregressive moving averages (VARMA) have been much less considered. This paper introduces a Tucker-low-rank framework to efficiently capture VARMA-type dynamics for high-dimensional time series, named the Scalable ARMA (SARMA) model. It generalizes the Tucker-low-rank finite-order VAR model to the…

利用基础模型估计工资差异AI 解读

The rise of foundation models marks a paradigm shift in machine learning: instead of training specialized models from scratch, foundation models are first trained on massive datasets before being adapted or fine-tuned to make predictions on smaller datasets. Initially developed for text, foundation models have also excelled at making predictions about social science data. However, while many estimation problems in the social sciences use prediction as an intermediate step,…

无需岭正则化的高维弱工具变量回归推断AI 解读

Inference of instrumental variable regression models with many weak instruments attracts many attentions recently. To extend the classical Anderson-Rubin test to high-dimensional setting, many procedures adopt ridge-regularization. However, we show that it is not necessary to consider ridge-regularization. Actually we propose a new quadratic-type test statistic which does not involve tuning parameters. Our quadratic-type test exhibits high power against dense alternatives.…

多层网络社区检测的正则化去偏谱聚类AI 解读

Community detection is a crucial problem in the analysis of multi-layer networks. While regularized spectral clustering methods using the classical regularized Laplacian matrix have shown great potential in handling sparse single-layer networks, to our knowledge, their potential in multi-layer network community detection remains unexplored. To address this gap, in this work, we introduce a new method, called regularized debiased sum of squared adjacency matrices (RDSoS), to…

当 Knockoffs 失效：诊断并修正 Knockoffs 的不可交换性AI 解读

Knockoffs are a popular statistical framework that addresses the challenging problem of conditional variable selection in high-dimensional settings with statistical control. Such statistical control is essential for the reliability of inference. However, knockoff guarantees rely on an exchangeability assumption that is difficult to test in practice, and there is little discussion in the literature on how to deal with unfulfilled hypotheses. This assumption is related to the…

高维网络卷积回归模型下的迁移学习AI 解读

Transfer learning enhances model performance by utilizing knowledge from related domains, particularly when labeled data is scarce. While existing research addresses transfer learning under various distribution shifts in independent settings, handling dependencies in networked data remains challenging. To address this challenge, we propose a high-dimensional transfer learning framework based on network convolutional regression (NCR), inspired by the success of graph…

概率态射与核均值嵌入下的监督学习AI 解读

In this paper I propose a generative model of supervised learning that unifies two approaches to supervised learning, using a concept of a correct loss function. Addressing two measurability problems, which have been ignored in statistical learning theory, I propose to use convergence in outer probability to characterize the consistency of a learning algorithm. Building upon these results, I extend a result due to Cucker-Smale, which addresses the learnability of a…

超高维数据的岭偏相关筛选AI 解读

Variable selection in ultrahigh-dimensional linear regression is challenging due to its high computational cost. Therefore, a screening step is usually conducted before variable selection to significantly reduce the dimension. Here we propose a novel and simple screening method based on ordering the absolute sample ridge partial correlations. The proposed method takes into account not only the ridge regularized estimates of the regression coefficients but also the ridge…

利用工具变量识别和估计因果同伴效应AI 解读

In social science researches, causal inference regarding peer effects often faces significant challenges due to homophily bias and contextual confounding. For example, unmeasured health conditions (e.g., influenza) and psychological states (e.g., happiness, loneliness) can spread among closely connected individuals, such as couples or siblings. To address these issues, we define four effect estimands for dyadic data to characterize direct effects and spillover effects. We…

ReLU 积分概率度量及其应用AI 解读

We propose a parametric integral probability metric (IPM) to measure the discrepancy between two probability measures. The proposed IPM leverages a specific parametric family of discriminators, such as single-node neural networks with ReLU activation, to effectively distinguish between distributions, making it applicable in high-dimensional settings. By optimizing over the parameters of the chosen discriminator class, the proposed IPM demonstrates that its estimators have…

正则化广义协方差估计量AI 解读

We introduce a regularized Generalized Covariance (RGCov) estimator as an extension of the GCov estimator to high dimensional setting that results either from high-dimensional data or a large number of nonlinear transformations used in the objective function. The approach relies on a ridge-type regularization for high-dimensional matrix inversion in the objective function of the GCov. The RGCov estimator is consistent and asymptotically normally distributed. We provide the…

弱约束资料同化中的模型误差协方差估计AI 解读

State estimates from weak constraint 4D-Var data assimilation can vary significantly depending on the data and model error covariances. As a result, the accuracy of these estimates heavily depends on the correct specification of both model and observational data error covariances. In this work, we assume that the data error is known and and focus on estimating the model error covariance by framing weak constraint 4D-Var as a regularized inverse problem, where the inverse…

基于图正则化的生存分析变量选择AI 解读

We study the variable selection problem in survival analysis to identify the most important factors affecting survival time. Our method incorporates prior knowledge of mutual correlations among variables, represented through a graph. We utilize the Cox proportional hazard model with a graph-based regularizer for variable selection. We present a computationally efficient algorithm developed to solve the graph regularized maximum likelihood problem by establishing connections…

空间函数型数据的贝叶斯函数对函数回归AI 解读

Spatial functional data arise in many settings, such as particulate matter curves observed at monitoring stations and age population curves at each areal unit. Most existing functional regression models have limited applicability because they do not consider spatial correlations. Although functional kriging methods can predict the curves at unobserved spatial locations, they are based on variogram fittings rather than constructing hierarchical statistical models. In this…

数字平台的大规模 MLOps 模型监控AI 解读

Machine learning models are widely recognized for their strong performance in forecasting. To keep that performance in streaming data settings, they have to be monitored and frequently re-trained. This can be done with machine learning operations (MLOps) techniques under supervision of an MLOps engineer. However, in digital platform settings where the number of data streams is typically large and unstable, standard monitoring becomes either suboptimal or too labor intensive…

因子网络自回归模型AI 解读

We propose a factor network autoregressive (FNAR) model for time series with complex network structures. The coefficients of the model reflect many different types of connections between economic agents ("multilayer network"), which are summarized into a smaller number of network matrices ("network factors") through a novel tensor-based principal component approach. We provide consistency and asymptotic normality results for the estimation of the factors, their loadings, and…

地球观测与机器学习用于因果推断的范围综述：贫困地理研究的启示AI 解读

Earth observation (EO) data such as satellite imagery can have far-reaching impacts on our understanding of the geography of poverty, especially when coupled with machine learning (ML) and computer vision. Early research used computer vision to predict living conditions in areas with limited data, but recent studies increasingly focus on causal analysis. Despite this shift, the use of EO-ML methods for causal inference lacks thorough documentation, and best practices are…

RIP条件下矩阵LASSO的低秩解及其对秩约束算法的推论AI 解读

We show that solutions to the popular convex matrix LASSO problem (nuclear-norm--penalized linear least-squares) have low rank under similar assumptions as required by classical low-rank matrix sensing error bounds. Although the purpose of the nuclear norm penalty is to promote low solution rank, a proof has not yet (to our knowledge) been provided outside very specific circumstances. Furthermore, we show that this result has significant theoretical consequences for…

映射至目标试验的干预效应：高维中介分析中的因果机器学习AI 解读

Causal mediation analysis examines causal pathways linking exposures to disease. The estimation of interventional effects, which are mediation estimands that overcome certain identifiability problems of natural effects, has been advanced through causal machine learning methods, particularly for high-dimensional mediators. Recently, it has been proposed interventional effects can be defined in each study by mapping to a target trial assessing specific hypothetical mediator…

固定维度下带平滑归纳偏置的物理信息学习中的良性过拟合AI 解读

Recent advances in machine learning have inspired a surge of research into reconstructing specific quantities of interest from measurements that comply with certain physical laws. These efforts focus on inverse problems that are governed by partial differential equations (PDEs). In this work, we develop an asymptotic Sobolev norm learning curve for kernel ridge(less) regression when addressing (elliptical) linear inverse problems. Our results show that the PDE operators in…

贝叶斯多元逻辑模型中的因子预训练AI 解读

This article focuses on inference in logistic regression for high-dimensional binary outcomes. A popular approach induces dependence across the outcomes by including latent factors in the linear predictor. Bayesian approaches are useful for characterizing uncertainty in inferring the regression coefficients, factors and loadings, while also incorporating hierarchical and shrinkage structure. However, Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms for posterior computation face…