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粗粒度个性化：联合分群与处理配置AI 解读

With advances in estimating heterogeneous treatment effects, firms can personalize and target individuals at a granular level. However, feasibility constraints limit full personalization. In practice, firms choose segments of individuals and assign a treatment to each segment to maximize profits: We call this the coarse personalization problem. We propose a two-step solution that simultaneously makes segmentation and targeting decisions. First, the firm personalizes by…

用于帕金森病生物标志物发现的稀疏因果结构学习：惩罚化 FCIAI 解读

Parkinson's disease (PD) is a progressive neurodegenerative disorder that lacks reliable early-stage biomarkers for diagnosis, prognosis, and therapeutic monitoring. While cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) biomarkers, such as alpha-synuclein seed amplification assays (alphaSyn-SAA), offer diagnostic potential, their clinical utility is limited by invasiveness and incomplete specificity. Plasma biomarkers provide a minimally invasive alternative, but their mechanistic role in PD…

高维工具变量下的稳健推断AI 解读

We propose a weak-identification-robust test for linear instrumental variable (IV) regressions with high-dimensional instruments, whose number is allowed to exceed the sample size. In addition, our test is robust to general error dependence, such as network dependence and spatial dependence. The test statistic takes a self-normalized form and the asymptotic validity of the test is established by using random matrix theory. Simulation studies are conducted to assess the…

P-CRE-DML：非线性面板数据因果推断的新方法AI 解读

This paper introduces a novel Proxy-Enhanced Correlated Random Effects Double Machine Learning (P-CRE-DML) framework to estimate causal effects in panel data with non-linearities and unobserved heterogeneity. Combining Double Machine Learning (DML, Chernozhukov et al., 2018), Correlated Random Effects (CRE, Mundlak, 1978), and lagged variables (Arellano & Bond, 1991) and innovating within the CRE-DML framework (Chernozhukov et al., 2022; Clarke & Polselli, 2025; Fuhr &…

多环境GLAMP：面向迁移学习的近似消息传递及其在Lasso估计中的应用AI 解读

Approximate Message Passing (AMP) algorithms enable precise characterization of certain classes of random objects in the high-dimensional limit, and have found widespread applications in fields such as signal processing, statistics, and communications. In this work, we introduce Multi-Environment Generalized Long AMP, a novel AMP framework that applies to transfer learning problems with multiple data sources and distribution shifts. We rigorously establish state evolution…

缺失数据与测量误差下高维回归的稳健变量选择AI 解读

In our paper, we focus on robust variable selection for missing data and measurement error. Missing data and measurement errors can lead to confusing data distribution. We propose an exponential loss function with a tuning parameter to apply to Missing and measurement errors data. By adjusting the parameter, the loss function can be better and more robust under various data distributions. We use inverse probability weighting and additive error models to address missing data…

时变非线性时间序列回归的筛估计与同时推断AI 解读

In this paper, we investigate time-varying nonlinear time series regression for a broad class of locally stationary time series. First, we propose sieve nonparametric estimators for the time-varying regression functions that achieve uniform consistency. Second, we develop a unified simultaneous inferential theory to conduct both structural and exact form tests on these functions. Additionally, we introduce a multiplier bootstrap procedure for practical implementation. Our…

平均分位数回归：一种新的非均值回归模型与一致风险度量AI 解读

Regression models that go beyond the mean, alongside coherent risk measures, have been important tools in modern data analysis. This paper introduces the innovative concept of Average Quantile Regression (AQR), which is smooth at the quantile-like level, comonotonically additive, and explicitly accounts for the severity of tail losses relative to quantile regression. AQR serves as a versatile regression model capable of describing distributional information across all…

连续处理下随机对象结局因果效应的双重稳健估计AI 解读

Causal inference is central to statistics and scientific discovery, enabling researchers to identify cause-and-effect relationships beyond associations. While traditionally studied within Euclidean spaces, contemporary applications increasingly involve complex, non-Euclidean data structures that reside in abstract metric spaces, known as random objects, such as images, shapes, networks, and distributions. This paper introduces a novel framework for causal inference with…

高维主成分调整下低维参数的检验AI 解读

In this paper, we investigate the impact of high-dimensional Principal Component (PC) adjustments on inferring the effects of variables on outcomes, with a focus on applications in genetic association studies where PC adjustment is commonly used to account for population stratification. We consider high-dimensional linear regression in the regime where the number of covariates grows proportionally to the number of samples. In this setting, we provide an asymptotically…

异质性下网络荟萃分析中节点的贝叶斯非参数合并与拆分AI 解读

Network meta-analysis (NMA) synthesizes evidence for multiple treatments, but decisions on node formation can have important statistical implications including bias or inflated uncertainty. Existing data-driven methods often lack flexibility or fail to fully account for node uncertainty and adjust for between-trial heterogeneity simultaneously. We introduce a Bayesian non-parametric framework using a Dirichlet process prior with a regularized horseshoe base measure. This…

因子模型学习所得潜在结局的因果推断AI 解读

In many fields$\unicode{x2013}$including genomics, epidemiology, natural language processing, social and behavioral sciences, and economics$\unicode{x2013}$it is increasingly important to address causal questions in the context of factor models or representation learning. In this work, we investigate causal effects on $\textit{latent outcomes}$ derived from high-dimensional observed data using nonnegative matrix factorization. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first…

用 sPoRT 检查序贯正值性违背AI 解读

Background: Sequential positivity is often a necessary assumption for drawing causal inferences, such as through marginal structural modeling. Unfortunately, verification of this assumption can be challenging because it usually relies on multiple parametric propensity score models, unlikely all correctly specified. Therefore, we propose a new algorithm, called sequential Positivity Regression Tree (sPoRT), to overcome this issue and identify the subgroups found to be…

大稀疏网络中β模型的L2正则化最大似然估计AI 解读

The $β$-model is a powerful tool for modeling large and sparse networks driven by degree heterogeneity, where many network models become infeasible due to computational challenge and network sparsity. However, existing estimation algorithms for $β$-model do not scale up. Also, theoretical understandings remain limited to dense networks. This paper brings several significant improvements over existing results to address the urgent needs of practice. We propose a new $\ell_2$-p…

加密资产对系统性与特质风险的异质暴露：分而治之的方法AI 解读

This paper analyzes realized return behavior across a broad set of crypto assets by estimating heterogeneous exposures to idiosyncratic and systematic risk. A key challenge arises from the latent nature of broader economy-wide risk sources: macro-financial proxies are unavailable at high-frequencies, while the abundance of low-frequency candidates offers limited guidance on empirical relevance. To address this, we develop a two-stage ``divide-and-conquer'' approach. The…

凸与非凸矩阵感知的高维统计理论AI 解读

The problem of matrix sensing, or trace regression, is a problem wherein one wishes to estimate a low-rank matrix from linear measurements perturbed with noise. A number of existing works have studied both convex and nonconvex approaches to this problem, establishing minimax error rates when the number of measurements is sufficiently large relative to the rank and dimension of the low-rank matrix, though a precise comparison of these procedures still remains unexplored. In…

单变量引导的稀疏回归AI 解读

In this paper, we introduce ``UniLasso'' -- a novel statistical method for sparse regression. This two-stage approach preserves the signs of the univariate coefficients and leverages their magnitude. Both of these properties are attractive for stability and interpretation of the model. Through comprehensive simulations and applications to real-world datasets, we demonstrate that UniLasso outperforms Lasso in various settings, particularly in terms of sparsity and model…

未知方差高斯模型中的L2范数后验收缩AI 解读

The testing-based approach is a fundamental tool for establishing posterior contraction rates. Although the Hellinger metric is attractive owing to the existence of a desirable test function, it is not directly applicable in Gaussian models, because translating the Hellinger metric into more intuitive metrics typically requires strong boundedness conditions. When the variance is known, this issue can be addressed by directly constructing a test function relative to the $L_2$-…

重尾相依矩阵与算子之和的无维界AI 解读

We prove deviation inequalities for sums of high-dimensional random matrices and operators with dependence and {\rc heavy tails}. Estimation of high-dimensional matrices is a concern for numerous modern applications. However, most results are stated for independent observations. Therefore, it is critical to derive results for dependent and heavy-tailed matrices. In this paper, we derive a dimension-free upper bound on the deviation of the sums. Thus, the bound does not…

密集纵向数据的动态因果中介分析AI 解读

Intensive longitudinal data, characterized by frequent measurements across numerous time points, are increasingly common due to advances in wearable devices and mobile health technologies. We consider evaluating causal mediation pathways between time-varying exposures, time-varying mediators, and a final, distal outcome using such data. Addressing mediation questions in these settings is challenging due to numerous potential exposures, complex mediation pathways, and…

底层有向混合图上的簇图：聚合层面因果效应识别AI 解读

The do-calculus is a sound and complete tool for identifying causal effects in acyclic directed mixed graphs (ADMGs) induced by structural causal models (SCMs). However, in many real-world applications, especially in high-dimensional setting, constructing a fully specified ADMG is often infeasible. This limitation has led to growing interest in partially specified causal representations, particularly through cluster-directed mixed graphs (C-DMGs), which group variables into…

为后续工具变量回归学习处理变量表征AI 解读

Traditional instrumental variable (IV) estimators face a fundamental constraint: they can only accommodate as many endogenous treatment variables as available instruments. This limitation becomes particularly challenging in settings where the treatment is presented in a high-dimensional and unstructured manner (e.g. descriptions of patient treatment pathways in a hospital). In such settings, researchers typically resort to applying unsupervised dimension reduction techniques…

充分降维中的精度矩阵正则化以改进二次判别分类AI 解读

Sufficient dimension reduction (SDR) methods, which often rely on class precision matrices, are widely used in supervised statistical classification problems. However, when class-specific sample sizes are small relative to the original feature-space dimension, precision matrix estimation becomes unstable and, as a result, increases the variability of the linear dimension reduction (LDR) matrix. Ultimately, this fact causes suboptimal supervised classification. To address…

条件矩限制的双重机器学习：工具变量回归、近端因果学习及拓展AI 解读

Solving conditional moment restrictions (CMRs) is a key problem considered in statistics, causal inference, and econometrics, where the aim is to solve for a function of interest that satisfies some conditional moment equalities. Specifically, many techniques for causal inference, such as instrumental variable (IV) regression and proximal causal learning (PCL), are CMR problems. Most CMR estimators use a two-stage approach, where the first-stage estimation is directly…