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预处理结局的因果推断及其在功能连接中的应用AI 解读

In biomedical research, repeated measurements within each subject are often processed to remove artifacts and unwanted sources of variation. The resulting data are used to construct derived outcomes that act as proxies for scientific outcomes that are not directly observable. Although intra-subject processing is widely used, its impact on inter-subject statistical inference has not been systematically studied, and a principled framework for causal analysis in this setting is…

神经网络机器回归：揭示高阶协同效应的深度学习框架AI 解读

We propose a new neural network framework, termed Neural Network Machine Regression (NNMR), which integrates trainable input gating and adaptive depth regularization to jointly perform feature selection and function estimation in an end-to-end manner. By penalizing both gating parameters and redundant layers, NNMR yields sparse and interpretable architectures while capturing complex nonlinear relationships driven by high-order synergistic effects. We further develop a…

预测石油消费：世界能源统计与机器学习的结合AI 解读

This paper studies whether a small set of dominant countries can account for most of the dynamics of regional oil demand and improve forecasting performance. We focus on dominant drivers within the OECD and a broad GVAR sample covering over 90\% of world GDP. Our approach identifies dominant drivers from a high-dimensional concentration matrix estimated row by row using two complementary variable-selection methods, LASSO and the one-covariate-at-a-time multiple testing…

交叉验证中的最优留出规模AI 解读

Cross-validation (CV) is routinely used across the sciences to select models and tune parameters, and the resulting choices are often interpreted as substantive scientific conclusions (e.g., which variables, mechanisms, or risk factors are ``supported by the data''). A key part of the CV procedure -- the hold-out size, or equivalently the fold count $K$ -- is typically set by convention (e.g., 80/20, $K=5$) rather than by a principled criterion. Central to the issue is the…

估计异质性处理效应的混合元学习器AI 解读

Estimating conditional average treatment effects (CATE) from observational data involves modeling decisions that differ from supervised learning, particularly concerning how to regularize model complexity. Previous approaches can be grouped into two primary "meta-learner" paradigms that impose distinct inductive biases. Indirect meta-learners first fit and regularize separate potential outcome (PO) models and then estimate CATE by taking their difference, whereas direct…

广义线性模型中的 Lasso 自助法AI 解读

Generalized linear model or GLM constitutes a large class of models and essentially extends the ordinary linear regression by connecting the mean of the response variable with the covariate through appropriate link functions. On the other hand, Lasso is a popular and easy-to-implement penalization method in regression when not all covariates are relevant. However, the asymptotic distributional properties the Lasso estimator in GLM is still unknown. In this paper, we show…

随机几何图上的图注意力网络节点回归：含Erdős–Rényi污染AI 解读

Graph attention networks (GATs) are widely used and often appear robust to noise in node covariates and edges, yet rigorous statistical guarantees demonstrating a provable advantage of GATs over non-attention graph neural networks~(GNNs) are scarce. We partially address this gap for node regression with graph-based errors-in-variables models under simultaneous covariate and edge corruption: responses are generated from latent node-level covariates, but only noise-perturbed…

观测研究中的最优样本拆分AI 解读

In observational studies of treatment effects, estimates may be biased by unmeasured confounders, which can potentially affect the validity of the results. Understanding sensitivity to such biases helps assess how unmeasured confounding impacts credibility. The design of an observational study strongly influences its sensitivity to bias. Previous work has shown that the sensitivity to bias can be reduced by dividing a dataset into a planning sample and a larger analysis…

协方差与精度矩阵的高维 Bernstein-Von Mises 定理AI 解读

This paper aims to examine the characteristics of the posterior distribution of covariance/precision matrices in a "large $p$, large $n$" scenario, where $p$ represents the number of variables and $n$ is the sample size. Our analysis focuses on establishing asymptotic normality of the posterior distribution of the entire covariance/precision matrices under specific growth restrictions on $p_n$ and other mild assumptions. In particular, the limiting distribution turns out to…

基于熵正则化的扩展平均场变分推断：理论与计算AI 解读

Variational inference (VI) has emerged as a popular method for approximate inference for high-dimensional Bayesian models. In this paper, we propose a novel VI method that extends the naive mean field via entropic regularization, referred to as $Ξ$-variational inference ($Ξ$-VI). $Ξ$-VI has a close connection to the entropic optimal transport problem and benefits from the computationally efficient Sinkhorn algorithm. We show that $Ξ$-variational posteriors effectively…

信息几何驱动的高斯图模型序贯增长AI 解读

We investigate the properties of a class of regularisation-free approaches for Gaussian graphical inference based on the information-geometry-driven sequential growth of initially edgeless graphs. Relating the growth of a graph to a coordinate descent process, we characterise the fully-corrective descents corresponding to information-optimal growths, and propose numerically efficient strategies for their approximation. We demonstrate the ability of the proposed procedures to…

岭回归中（共轭）梯度估计量的正则化路径比较AI 解读

We consider standard gradient descent, gradient flow and conjugate gradients as iterative algorithms for minimising a penalised ridge criterion in linear regression. While it is well known that conjugate gradients exhibit fast numerical convergence, the statistical properties of their iterates are more difficult to assess due to inherent non-linearities and dependencies. On the other hand, standard gradient flow is a linear method with well-known regularising properties when…

ScoreMatchingRiesz：用于去偏机器学习与政策路径估计的得分匹配AI 解读

We propose ScoreMatchingRiesz, a family of Riesz representer estimators based on score matching. The Riesz representer is a key nuisance component in debiased machine learning, enabling $\sqrt{n}$-consistent and asymptotically efficient estimation of causal and structural targets via Neyman-orthogonal scores. We formulate Riesz representer estimation as a score estimation problem. This perspective stabilizes representer estimation by allowing us to leverage denoising score…

基于矩的投影变化在线检测：何时重训深度学习模型或调整组合AI 解读

Training deep learning neural networks often requires massive amounts of computational ressources. We propose to sequentially monitor network predictions to trigger retraining only if the predictions are no longer valid. This can reduce drastically computational costs and opens a door to green deep learning. Our approach is based on the relationship to projected second moments monitoring, a problem also arising in other areas such as computational finance. Various open-end…

面向协变量偏移下函数型数据的正则化学习AI 解读

This paper investigates a general regularization framework for unsupervised domain adaptation in vector-valued regression under the covariate shift assumption, utilizing vector-valued reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces (vRKHS). Covariate shift occurs when the input distributions of the training and test data differ, introducing significant challenges for reliable learning. By restricting the hypothesis space, we develop a practical operator learning algorithm capable of…

通过函数型线性结构方程模型推断生物医学影像的因果效应AI 解读

Understanding the causal effects of organ-specific features from medical imaging on clinical outcomes is essential for biomedical research and patient care. We propose a novel Functional Linear Structural Equation Model (FLSEM) to capture the relationships among clinical outcomes, functional imaging exposures, and scalar covariates like genetics, sex, and age. Traditional methods struggle with the infinite-dimensional nature of exposures and complex covariates. Our FLSEM…

面向相对数据的稳健函数型主成分分析AI 解读

This paper introduces a robust approach to functional principal component analysis (FPCA) for relative data, particularly density functions. While recent papers have studied density data within the Bayes space framework, there has been limited focus on developing robust methods to effectively handle anomalous observations and large noise. To address this, we extend the Mahalanobis distance concept to Bayes spaces, proposing its regularized version that accounts for the…

货币统一、增长分化：采用欧元的动态效应AI 解读

Does euro adoption affect long-run economic growth? Existing evidence is mixed, reflecting limited treated countries, long horizons that challenge inference, and heterogeneity across member states. We estimate causal dynamic and heterogeneous treatment effects using Causal Forests with Fixed Effects (CFFE), a machine-learning approach that combines causal forests with two-way fixed effects. Under a conditional parallel-trends assumption, we find that euro adoption reduced…

重新审视增量随机主化最小化算法及其在专家混合模型中的应用AI 解读

Processing high-volume, streaming data is increasingly common in modern statistics and machine learning, where batch-mode algorithms are often impractical because they require repeated passes over the full dataset. This has motivated incremental stochastic estimation methods, including the incremental stochastic Expectation-Maximization (EM) algorithm formulated via stochastic approximation. In this work, we revisit and analyze an incremental stochastic variant of the…

风险下的归一化分数阶熵决策模型AI 解读

Constructing efficient portfolios requires balancing expected returns with risk through optimal stock selection, while accounting for investor preferences. In a recent work by Paul and Kundu (2026), the fractional-order entropy due to Ubriaco was introduced as an uncertainty measure to capture varying investor attitudes toward risk. Building on this foundation, we introduce a novel normalized fractional order entropy aligned with investors' risk preferences that combines…

协作图套索的多组学网络重建AI 解读

Motivation: In recent years, the availability of multi-omics data has increased substantially. Multi-omics data integration methods mainly aim to leverage different molecular layers to gain a complete molecular description of biological processes. An attractive integration approach is the reconstruction of multi-omics networks. However, the development of effective multi-omics network reconstruction strategies lags behind. Results: In this study, we introduce collaborative…

基于惩罚已实现方差的高维二次变差估计AI 解读

In this paper, we develop a penalized realized variance (PRV) estimator of the quadratic variation (QV) of a high-dimensional continuous Itô semimartingale. We adapt the principle idea of regularization from linear regression to covariance estimation in a continuous-time high-frequency setting. We show that under a nuclear norm penalization, the PRV is computed by soft-thresholding the eigenvalues of realized variance (RV). It therefore encourages sparsity of singular values…

高维时变模型的广义自适应联合学习框架AI 解读

In modern biomedical and econometric studies, longitudinal processes are often characterized by complex time-varying associations and abrupt regime shifts that are shared across correlated outcomes. Standard functional data analysis (FDA) methods, which prioritize smoothness, often fail to capture these dynamic structural features, particularly in high-dimensional settings. This article introduces Adaptive Joint Learning (AJL), a hierarchical regularization framework…

连续暴露的增量效应AI 解读

Causal inference problems often involve continuous treatments, such as dose, duration, or frequency. However, identifying and estimating standard dose-response estimands requires that everyone has some chance of receiving any level of the exposure (i.e., positivity). To avoid this assumption, we consider stochastic interventions based on exponentially tilting the treatment distribution by some parameter $δ$ (an incremental effect); this increases or decreases the likelihood…