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用偏相关图LASSO识别网络枢纽AI 解读

Graphical LASSO (GLASSO) is a widely used method for estimating sparse precision matrices and learning undirected graphical models in high-dimensional settings. Because GLASSO penalizes entries of the precision matrix directly, however, it is not scale-invariant. Partial Correlation Graphical LASSO (PCGLASSO), introduced by Carter et al. (2024), addresses this limitation by penalizing partial correlations, which directly characterize conditional dependence. In this paper, we…

时间序列政策决策中的计量方法与因果结构学习：英国新冠政策证据AI 解读

Causal machine learning (ML) recovers graphical structures that inform us about potential cause-and-effect relationships. Most progress has focused on cross-sectional data with no explicit time order, whereas recovering causal structures from time series data remains the subject of ongoing research in causal ML. In addition to traditional causal ML, this study assesses econometric methods that some argue can recover causal structures from time series data. The use of these…

非凸稳健张量回归：算法与统计理论AI 解读

Tensor regression is an important tool for tensor data analysis, but existing works have not considered the impact of outliers, making them potentially sensitive to such data points. This paper proposes a low tubal rank robust regression method for analyzing high-dimensional tensor data with heavy-tailed random noise. The proposed method is based on a nonconvex relaxation of the tensor tubal rank within a general optimization framework, which allows for nonconvexity in both…

比例时间序列的 Beta-GAM 隐 Markov 模型AI 解读

We propose a hidden Markov model for univariate proportion time series taking values in (0,1), where regime switching captures latent structural changes and the emission distribution belongs to the Beta family. In each latent state, the Beta mean is linked to covariates through a generalized additive model (GAM) with spline-based smooth functions, while the Beta precision is state-specific, enabling flexible modeling of both nonlinear covariate effects and regime-dependent…

Causal EpiNets：利用认知神经网络进行精度校正的个体因果界推断AI 解读

Individual treatment effects are not point-identified from data. The Probability of Necessity and Sufficiency (PNS) circumvents this limitation by characterizing individual-level causality through intersection bounds derived from combined experimental and observational data. In finite samples, however, standard plug-in estimators systematically fail: they violate structural probability constraints and suffer from extremum bias induced by max-min operators, yielding…

基于高阶朗之万动力学的高效并行采样AI 解读

We study parallel sampling from high-dimensional strongly log-concave distributions. Langevin-based samplers converge rapidly in continuous time, but their discretizations are typically sequential and often require polynomially many steps in the dimension $d$, the target accuracy $\varepsilon^{-1}$, or both. Picard-based parallel sampling methods reduce this sequential depth to polylogarithmic scale by solving for many time-discretization points in parallel; however,…

DARTS：预算受限序贯实验中的预后协变量选择AI 解读

Randomized controlled trials typically assume that prognostic covariates are known and available at no cost. In practice, obtaining high-dimensional pretreatment data is costly, forcing a trade-off between covariate-adaptive precision and a measurement budget. We introduce Dynamic Adaptive Rerandomization via Thompson Sampling (DARTS), which treats covariate acquisition as a sequential optimization problem embedded within a design-based causal inference task. A budgeted…

去偏机器学习中的协变量平衡与 Riesz 回归应由 Neyman 正交得分指导AI 解读

This position paper argues that, in debiased machine learning, balancing functions should be derived from the Neyman orthogonal score, not chosen only as functions of covariates. Covariate balancing is effective when the regression error entering the score can be represented by functions of covariates alone, and it is the natural finite-dimensional approximation for targets such as ATT counterfactual means. For ATE estimation under treatment effect heterogeneity, however,…

用于高维因果生存分析的马蹄先验森林AI 解读

We develop a Bayesian tree ensemble model to estimate heterogeneous treatment effects in censored survival data with high-dimensional covariates. Instead of imposing sparsity through the tree structure, we place a horseshoe prior directly on the step heights to achieve adaptive global-local shrinkage. This strategy allows flexible regularisation and reduces noise. We develop a reversible jump Gibbs sampler to accommodate the non-conjugate horseshoe prior within the tree…

RepFlow：用于因果效应估计的表示增强流匹配AI 解读

Estimating causal effects from observational data has become increasingly critical in diverse fields including healthcare, economics, and social policy. The fundamental challenge in causal inference arises from the missing counterfactuals and the selection bias. Existing methods are largely limited to point estimates and lack the capacity for distribution modeling. In this work, we propose RepFlow, a novel framework that formulates causal effect estimation as a joint…

动态藤Copula：检测与量化时变高阶交互AI 解读

Time-varying dependence is often modeled with dynamic correlations or Gaussian graphical models, but multivariate systems can change through tail behavior, asymmetry, or conditional structure even when correlations are nearly stable. We introduce Dynamic Vine Copulas (DVC), a temporal vine-copula framework for estimating and diagnosing sequence-wide non-Gaussian dependence. DVC fixes a chosen vine factorization for comparability; the framework applies to C-, D-, and R-vines,…

PRCD-MAP：在因果发现中学习对不完美先验的信任程度AI 解读

External priors of unknown reliability create a brittle trade-off in causal discovery: blind trust amplifies errors, blind rejection wastes signal. Real priors are also heterogeneously reliable -- physical laws are trustworthy, LLM-suggested edges are speculative -- yet existing methods either ignore priors or impose them through globally uniform trust. We propose PRCD-MAP, a soft prior-consumption layer that assigns per-edge trust to an imperfect prior and uses it to…

随机对照试验中平均处理效应的无偏回归调整估计AI 解读

This article introduces a leave-one-out regression adjustment (LOORA) for estimating average treatment effects in randomized controlled trials. In finite samples, LOORA removes the bias of conventional regression adjustment and yields exact variance formulas for regression-adjusted Horvitz-Thompson and difference-in-means estimators. Ridge regularization curbs the influence of high-leverage observations, improving stability and precision in small samples. In large samples,…

贝叶斯稀疏回归的谱塌缩 Gibbs 采样器AI 解读

Sparse regression based on global-local shrinkage priors are increasingly used for Bayesian modeling of modern high-dimensional data, but scaling up the Gibbs sampler for posterior inference remains a challenge. While much effort has gone into speeding up the high-dimensional coefficient update step, insufficient attention has been given to the potential poor mixing of the global scale parameter $τ$ and of the overall sampler. One proposed remedy has been to marginalize out…

高维函数型线性回归中的模型形式识别AI 解读

High-dimensional functional data are becoming increasingly common in fields such as environmental monitoring and neuroimaging. This paper studies high-dimensional functional linear regression models that relate a scalar response to ultra-high-dimensional functional predictors, where each predictor is treated as a random element in an infinite-dimensional functional space. To address the dual challenges of high-dimensionality and model interpretability, we propose MoFI-FLR, a…

空间依赖全局-局部收缩先验下的泊松回归区域选择与预测AI 解读

High-dimensional spatially correlated covariates are common in regression models encountered in environmental sciences and other fields. In such models, the regression coefficients often exhibit a sparse structure with spatial dependence. Although standard variable selection approaches can help detect the sparse structure, incorporating the dependence into variable selection helps recover spatially contiguous signals and improves prediction accuracy. Motivated by a…

稳定向量自回归过程稀疏性的贝叶斯推断AI 解读

Advances in sensing technology have made it possible to collect large volumes of high-dimensional time-series data. In fields like genetics and neuroscience, key questions concern whether directed relationships between variables can be learned from these data. To this end, graphical vector autoregressions are a popular tool because zeros among the autoregressive coefficients and error precision matrix have natural interpretations in terms of Granger non-causality and…

双稀疏正则化模型的近端投影方法AI 解读

Regularization is often used in high-dimensional regression settings to generate a sparse model, which can save tremendous computing resources and identify predictors that are most strongly associated with the response. When the predictors can be represented by a Gaussian graphical model, the structure of the predictor graph can be exploited during regularization. Our proposed model exploits this underlying predictor graph structure by decomposing the estimated coefficient…

贝叶斯聚类加权高斯模型AI 解读

We introduce a novel class of Bayesian mixtures for normal linear regression models which incorporates a further Gaussian random component for the distribution of the predictor variables. The proposed cluster-weighted model aims to encompass potential heterogeneity in the distribution of the response variable as well as in the multivariate distribution of the covariates for detecting signals relevant to the underlying latent structure. Of particular interest are potential…

地中海海表温度热点的卷积过程识别AI 解读

Sea surface temperature (SST) is a fundamental determinant of global climate dynamics and economic activity. Reliable projections of future SST patterns depend critically on a rigorous characterization of the underlying spatial random field. In this study, we introduce a novel convolution-based covariance framework tailored to geostatistical domains constrained by physical barriers and influenced by vector-driven flows. By discretizing the continuous marine domain into a…

网络化基础设施的可扩展结构估计：局部协调的精确分解AI 解读

Interaction effects are often economically central in environments where structural dynamic estimation becomes computationally infeasible. Under fixed group membership and sparse within-group interaction structure, the Bellman operator admits a block-diagonal decomposition that allows high-dimensional dynamic programs to be solved through independent group-level subproblems while preserving the original structural problem exactly. The result applies to a class of dynamic…

利用替代指标辅助缺失主要结局的高效跨总体分布与分位数处理效应估计AI 解读

We study target-population distributional and quantile treatment effects when a source study observes treatment and post-treatment surrogates for all source units but observes a long-run primary outcome only for a validation subset, while the target population contributes only baseline covariates. The target estimands are transported counterfactual distribution functions $ψ_a(y)=P(Y^a\le y\mid R=0)$, their quantiles $q_a(τ)$, and the quantile treatment effect $Δ(τ)=q_1(τ)-q_0(τ)$…

超越全局单调性的反事实可识别性：非单调三角结构因果模型AI 解读

Structural causal models provide a unified semantics for interventions and counterfactuals, but most identifiability results rely on restrictive assumptions like global monotonicity, which are often violated in embodied interaction, where the same exogenous perturbation can induce opposite responses under different contact contexts. We ask what structure still suffices once global monotonicity is dropped. We introduce non-monotone triangular structural causal models…

从稀缺且含噪的动态观测中进行贝叶斯超图推断AI 解读

Inferring higher-order interaction structure from observations of dynamics is a central challenge in complex systems, particularly when data are scarce, noisy, or concentrated in lower-dimensional regions of state space. We develop Bayes-THIS, a Bayesian extension of Taylor-based Hypergraph Inference using SINDy (THIS), which reconstructs hypergraph structure from time-series data by identifying sparse Taylor coefficients associated with pairwise and higher-order…