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自适应机器学习中的多变量因果自标注及量化分析AI 解读

Adaptive machine learning (ML) aims to allow ML models to adapt to ever-changing environments with potential concept drift after model deployment. Traditionally, adaptive ML requires a new dataset to be manually labeled to tailor deployed models to altered data distributions. Recently, an interactive causality based self-labeling method was proposed to autonomously associate causally related data streams for domain adaptation, showing promising results compared to…

最大化前瞻性的核心通胀指标AI 解读

Timely monetary policy decision-making requires timely core inflation measures. We create a new core inflation series that is explicitly designed to succeed at that goal. Precisely, we introduce the Assemblage Regression, a generalized nonnegative ridge regression problem that optimizes the price index's subcomponent weights such that the aggregate is maximally predictive of future headline inflation. Ordering subcomponents according to their rank in each period switches the…

塞尔维亚斯托皮察洞穴旅游需求的神经网络预测AI 解读

For modeling the number of visits in Stopića cave (Serbia) we consider the classical Auto-regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model, Machine Learning (ML) method Support Vector Regression (SVR), and hybrid NeuralPropeth method which combines classical and ML concepts. The most accurate predictions were obtained with NeuralPropeth which includes the seasonal component and growing trend of time-series. In addition, non-linearity is modeled by shallow Neural Network…

应对 A/B 测试中数据训练循环引发的干扰：加权训练方法AI 解读

In modern recommendation systems, the standard pipeline involves training machine learning models on historical data to predict user behaviors and improve recommendations continuously. However, these data training loops can introduce interference in A/B tests, where data generated by control and treatment algorithms, potentially with different distributions, are combined. To address these challenges, we introduce a novel approach called weighted training. This approach…

最大化机器学习可预测性的投资组合AI 解读

When it comes to stock returns, any form of predictability can bolster risk-adjusted profitability. We develop a collaborative machine learning algorithm that optimizes portfolio weights so that the resulting synthetic security is maximally predictable. Precisely, we introduce MACE, a multivariate extension of Alternating Conditional Expectations that achieves the aforementioned goal by wielding a Random Forest on one side of the equation, and a constrained Ridge Regression…

利用神经动态规划进行经济预测AI 解读

Economic forecasting is concerned with the estimation of some variable like gross domestic product (GDP) in the next period given a set of variables that describes the current situation or state of the economy, including industrial production, retail trade turnover or economic confidence. Neuro-dynamic programming (NDP) provides tools to deal with forecasting and other sequential problems with such high-dimensional states spaces. Whereas conventional forecasting methods…

利用已知变量与未知潜在因素开展高维预测AI 解读

Forecasts play a central role in decision making under uncertainty. After a brief review of the general issues, this paper considers ways of using high-dimensional data in forecasting. We consider selecting variables from a known active set, known knowns, using Lasso and OCMT, and approximating unobserved latent factors, known unknowns, by various means. This combines both sparse and dense approaches. We demonstrate the various issues involved in variable selection in a…

基于双重机器学习的因果混合建模AI 解读

Hybrid modeling integrates machine learning with scientific knowledge to enhance interpretability, generalization, and adherence to natural laws. Nevertheless, equifinality and regularization biases pose challenges in hybrid modeling to achieve these purposes. This paper introduces a novel approach to estimating hybrid models via a causal inference framework, specifically employing Double Machine Learning (DML) to estimate causal effects. We showcase its use for the Earth…

Moran's I 两阶段 Lasso：处理空间相关与内生变量AI 解读

We propose a novel estimation procedure for models with endogenous variables in the presence of spatial correlation based on Eigenvector Spatial Filtering. The procedure, called Moran's $I$ 2-Stage Lasso (Mi-2SL), uses a two-stage Lasso estimator where the Standardised Moran's I is used to set the Lasso tuning parameter. Unlike existing spatial econometric methods, this has the key benefit of not requiring the researcher to explicitly model the spatial correlation process,…

用于宏观经济分析的贝叶斯神经网络AI 解读

Macroeconomic data is characterized by a limited number of observations (small T), many time series (big K) but also by featuring temporal dependence. Neural networks, by contrast, are designed for datasets with millions of observations and covariates. In this paper, we develop Bayesian neural networks (BNNs) that are well-suited for handling datasets commonly used for macroeconomic analysis in policy institutions. Our approach avoids extensive specification searches through…

一类广义层级模型的估计与推断AI 解读

In this paper, we consider estimation and inference for the unknown parameters and function involved in a class of generalized hierarchical models. Such models are of great interest in the literature of neural networks (such as Bauer and Kohler, 2019). We propose a rectified linear unit (ReLU) based deep neural network (DNN) approach, and contribute to the design of DNN by i) providing more transparency for practical implementation, ii) defining different types of sparsity,…

TS-CausalNN：从非线性非平稳时间序列学习时序因果关系AI 解读

The growing availability and importance of time series data across various domains, including environmental science, epidemiology, and economics, has led to an increasing need for time-series causal discovery methods that can identify the intricate relationships in the non-stationary, non-linear, and often noisy real world data. However, the majority of current time series causal discovery methods assume stationarity and linear relations in data, making them infeasible for…

C-XGBoost：用于因果效应估计的树提升模型AI 解读

Causal effect estimation aims at estimating the Average Treatment Effect as well as the Conditional Average Treatment Effect of a treatment to an outcome from the available data. This knowledge is important in many safety-critical domains, where it often needs to be extracted from observational data. In this work, we propose a new causal inference model, named C-XGBoost, for the prediction of potential outcomes. The motivation of our approach is to exploit the superiority of…

政策评估中因果机器学习的透明性挑战：可用性与问责AI 解读

Causal machine learning tools are beginning to see use in real-world policy evaluation tasks to flexibly estimate treatment effects. One issue with these methods is that the machine learning models used are generally black boxes, i.e., there is no globally interpretable way to understand how a model makes estimates. This is a clear problem in policy evaluation applications, particularly in government, because it is difficult to understand whether such models are functioning…

面向神经代码模型解释的因果理论AI 解读

Neural Language Models of Code, or Neural Code Models (NCMs), are rapidly progressing from research prototypes to commercial developer tools. As such, understanding the capabilities and limitations of such models is becoming critical. However, the abilities of these models are typically measured using automated metrics that often only reveal a portion of their real-world performance. While, in general, the performance of NCMs appears promising, currently much is unknown…

惩罚化偏差缩减的双重稳健因果推断：融合非概率样本与设计调查AI 解读

Causal inference on the average treatment effect (ATE) using non-probability samples, such as electronic health records (EHR), faces challenges from sample selection bias and high-dimensional covariates. This requires considering a selection model alongside treatment and outcome models that are typical ingredients in causal inference. This paper considers integrating large non-probability samples with external probability samples from a design survey, addressing moderately…

随机临床试验中协变量调整的一般形式AI 解读

In randomized clinical trials, adjusting for baseline covariates can improve credibility and efficiency for demonstrating and quantifying treatment effects. This article studies the augmented inverse propensity weighted (AIPW) estimator, which is a general form of covariate adjustment that uses linear, generalized linear, and non-parametric or machine learning models for the conditional mean of the response given covariates. Under covariate-adaptive randomization, we…

网络关联数据的高维因子分析AI 解读

Factor analysis is a widely used statistical tool in many scientific disciplines, such as psychology, economics, and sociology. As observations linked by networks become increasingly common, incorporating network structures into factor analysis remains an open problem. In this paper, we focus on high-dimensional factor analysis involving network-connected observations, and propose a generalized factor model with latent factors that account for both the network structure and…

利用部分因果排序学习有向无环图AI 解读

Directed acyclic graphs (DAGs) are commonly used to model causal relationships among random variables. In general, learning the DAG structure is both computationally and statistically challenging. Moreover, without additional information, the direction of edges may not be estimable from observational data. In contrast, given a complete causal ordering of the variables, the problem can be solved efficiently, even in high dimensions. In this paper, we consider the intermediate…

从多节点干预识别线性混合的因果表示AI 解读

The task of inferring high-level causal variables from low-level observations, commonly referred to as causal representation learning, is fundamentally underconstrained. As such, recent works to address this problem focus on various assumptions that lead to identifiability of the underlying latent causal variables. A large corpus of these preceding approaches consider multi-environment data collected under different interventions on the causal model. What is common to…

使用 DBSCAN 进行时间序列聚类AI 解读

Economic policy and research rely on the correct evaluation of the billions of high-frequency data points that we collect every day. Consistent clustering algorithms, like DBSCAN, allow us to make sense of the data in a useful way. However, while there is a large literature on the consistency of various clustering algorithms for high-dimensional static clustering, the literature on multivariate time series clustering still largely relies on heuristics or restrictive…

基于机器学习元学习器的电力市场减排策略因果分析AI 解读

This study employs the Causal Machine Learning (CausalML) statistical method to analyze the influence of electricity pricing policies on carbon dioxide (CO2) levels in the household sector. Investigating the causality between potential outcomes and treatment effects, where changes in pricing policies are the treatment, our analysis challenges the conventional wisdom surrounding incentive-based electricity pricing. The study's findings suggest that adopting such policies may…

用于主分层因果效应的贝叶斯非参数树模型AI 解读

Principal stratification analysis evaluates how causal effects of a treatment on a primary outcome vary across strata of units defined by their treatment effect on some intermediate quantity. This endeavor is substantially challenged when the intermediate variable is continuously scaled and there are infinitely many basic principal strata. We employ a Bayesian nonparametric approach to flexibly evaluate treatment effects across flexibly-modeled principal strata. The approach…

面向高维数据的高效张量回归AI 解读

Most currently used tensor regression models for high-dimensional data are based on Tucker decomposition, which has good properties but loses its efficiency in compressing tensors very quickly as the order of tensors increases, say greater than four or five. However, for the simplest tensor autoregression in handling time series data, its coefficient tensor already has the order of six. This paper revises a newly proposed tensor train (TT) decomposition and then applies it…