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空间混杂的因果推断框架AI 解读

Over the past few decades, addressing "spatial confounding" has become a major topic in spatial statistics. However, the literature has provided conflicting definitions, and many proposed solutions are tied to specific analysis models and do not address the issue of confounding as it is understood in causal inference. We offer an analysis-model-agnostic definition of spatial confounding as the existence of an unmeasured causal confounder variable with a spatial structure. We…

稀疏高阶偏最小二乘：同时变量选择、降维与张量去噪AI 解读

Partial Least Squares (PLS) regression emerged as an alternative to ordinary least squares for addressing multicollinearity in a wide range of scientific applications. As multidimensional tensor data is becoming more widespread, tensor adaptations of PLS have been developed. In this paper, we first establish the statistical behavior of Higher Order PLS (HOPLS) of Zhao et al. (2012), by showing that the consistency of the HOPLS estimator cannot be guaranteed as the tensor…

负-未标注数据下的惩罚回归：构建长新冠研究指数的方法AI 解读

Moderate to severe post-acute sequelae of SARS-CoV-2 infection (PASC), also called long COVID, is estimated to impact as many as 10% of SARS-CoV-2 infected individuals, representing a chronic condition with a substantial global public health burden. An expansive literature has identified over 200 long-term and persistent symptoms associated with a history of SARS-CoV-2 infection; yet, there remains to be a clear consensus on a syndrome definition. Such a definition is a…

利用因果不变贝叶斯神经网络实现稳健域泛化AI 解读

Deep neural networks can obtain impressive performance on various tasks under the assumption that their training domain is identical to their target domain. Performance can drop dramatically when this assumption does not hold. One explanation for this discrepancy is the presence of spurious domain-specific correlations in the training data that the network exploits. Causal mechanisms, in the other hand, can be made invariant under distribution changes as they allow…

核岭回归的几何分析及其应用AI 解读

We obtain upper bounds for the estimation error of Kernel Ridge Regression (KRR) for all non-negative regularization parameters, offering a geometric perspective on various phenomena in KRR. As applications: 1. We address the multiple descent problem, unifying the proofs of arxiv:1908.10292 and arxiv:1904.12191 for polynomial kernels and we establish multiple descent for the upper bound of estimation error of KRR under sub-Gaussian design and non-asymptotic regimes. 2. For a…

推断未知未知：正则化偏差感知集合卡尔曼滤波AI 解读

Because of physical assumptions and numerical approximations, low-order models are affected by uncertainties in the state and parameters, and by model biases. Model biases, also known as model errors or systematic errors, are difficult to infer because they are `unknown unknowns', i.e., we do not necessarily know their functional form a priori. With biased models, data assimilation methods may be ill-posed because either (i) they are 'bias-unaware' because the estimators are…

加纳通胀预测：机器学习对经济稳定与增长策略的潜在作用AI 解读

Inflation remains a persistent challenge for many African countries. This research investigates the critical role of machine learning (ML) in understanding and managing inflation in Ghana, emphasizing its significance for the country's economic stability and growth. Utilizing a comprehensive dataset spanning from 2010 to 2022, the study aims to employ advanced ML models, particularly those adept in time series forecasting, to predict future inflation trends. The methodology…

解码神经网络：基于因果解释与推理的针对性稳健分析AI 解读

Despite their success and widespread adoption, the opaque nature of deep neural networks (DNNs) continues to hinder trust, especially in critical applications. Current interpretability solutions often yield inconsistent or oversimplified explanations, or require model changes that compromise performance. In this work, we introduce TRACER, a novel method grounded in causal inference theory designed to estimate the causal dynamics underpinning DNN decisions without altering…

面向基因组学快速分组变量选择与FDR控制的信息弹性网AI 解读

Modern genomics research relies on genome-wide association studies (GWAS) to identify the few genetic variants among potentially millions that are associated with diseases of interest. Only reproducible discoveries of groups of associations improve our understanding of complex polygenic diseases and enable the development of new drugs and personalized medicine. Thus, fast multivariate variable selection methods that have a high true positive rate (TPR) while controlling the…

无监督域偏移下预测区间的最优聚合AI 解读

As machine learning models are increasingly deployed in dynamic environments, it becomes paramount to assess and quantify uncertainties associated with distribution shifts. A distribution shift occurs when the underlying data-generating process changes, leading to a deviation in the model's performance. The prediction interval, which captures the range of likely outcomes for a given prediction, serves as a crucial tool for characterizing uncertainties induced by their…

随机投影集成降维AI 解读

We introduce a new framework for dimension reduction in the context of high-dimensional regression. Our proposal is to aggregate an ensemble of random projections, which have been carefully chosen based on the empirical regression performance after being applied to the covariates. More precisely, we consider disjoint groups of independent random projections, apply a base regression method after each projection, and retain the projection in each group based on the empirical…

基于截断正则化重表述的稀疏最小截断平方快速算法AI 解读

The least trimmed squares (LTS) is a reasonable formulation of robust regression whereas it suffers from high computational cost due to the nonconvexity and nonsmoothness of its objective function. The most frequently used FAST-LTS algorithm is particularly slow when a sparsity-inducing penalty such as the $\ell_1$ norm is added. This paper proposes a computationally inexpensive algorithm for the sparse LTS, which is based on the proximal gradient method with a reformulation…

多变量分类响应回归中关联结构学习的子空间分解AI 解读

Modeling the complex relationships between multiple categorical response variables as a function of predictors is a fundamental task in the analysis of categorical data. However, existing methods can be difficult to interpret and may lack flexibility. To address these challenges, we introduce a penalized likelihood method for multivariate categorical response regression that relies on a novel subspace decomposition to parameterize interpretable association structures. Our…

未知一般网络干扰实验中的因果消息传递AI 解读

Randomized experiments are a powerful methodology for data-driven evaluation of decisions or interventions. Yet, their validity may be undermined by network interference. This occurs when the treatment of one unit impacts not only its outcome but also that of connected units, biasing traditional treatment effect estimations. Our study introduces a new framework to accommodate complex and unknown network interference, moving beyond specialized models in the existing…

高维协变量下的惩罚稀疏协方差回归AI 解读

Covariance regression offers an effective way to model the large covariance matrix with the auxiliary similarity matrices. In this work, we propose a sparse covariance regression (SCR) approach to handle the potentially high-dimensional predictors (i.e., similarity matrices). Specifically, we use the penalization method to identify the informative predictors and estimate their associated coefficients simultaneously. We first investigate the Lasso estimator and subsequently…

不同波动特征下的股票价格预测：循环神经网络与混合专家模型比较AI 解读

This study evaluates the effectiveness of a Mixture of Experts (MoE) model for stock price prediction by comparing it to a Recurrent Neural Network (RNN) and a linear regression model. The MoE framework combines an RNN for volatile stocks and a linear model for stable stocks, dynamically adjusting the weight of each model through a gating network. Results indicate that the MoE approach significantly improves predictive accuracy across different volatility profiles. The RNN…

大协方差矩阵的二次优化偏差AI 解读

We describe a puzzle involving the interactions between an optimization of a multivariate quadratic function and a "plug-in" estimator of a spiked covariance matrix. When the largest eigenvalues (i.e., the spikes) diverge with the dimension, the gap between the true and the out-of-sample optima typically also diverges. We show how to "fine-tune" the plug-in estimator in a precise way to avoid this outcome. Central to our description is a "quadratic optimization bias"…

无需稀疏性假设的高维协变量局部投影推断AI 解读

This paper presents a comprehensive local projections (LP) framework for estimating future responses to current shocks, robust to high-dimensional controls without relying on sparsity assumptions. The approach is applicable to various settings, including impulse response analysis and difference-in-differences (DiD) estimation. While methods like LASSO exist, they often assume most parameters are exactly zero, limiting their effectiveness in dense data generation processes. I…

高维协方差矩阵惩罚似然估计的统一方法AI 解读

We consider the problem of estimation of a covariance matrix for Gaussian data in a high dimensional setting. Existing approaches include maximum likelihood estimation under a pre-specified sparsity pattern, l_1-penalized loglikelihood optimization and ridge regularization of the sample covariance. We show that these three approaches can be addressed in an unified way, by considering the constrained optimization of an objective function that involves two suitably defined…

基于条件矩方法的异质性处理效应估计AI 解读

We propose a new estimator for heterogeneous treatment effects in a partially linear model (PLM) with multiple exogenous covariates and a potentially endogenous treatment variable. Our approach integrates a Robinson transformation to handle the nonparametric component, the Smooth Minimum Distance (SMD) method to leverage conditional mean independence restrictions, and a Neyman-Orthogonalized first-order condition (FOC). By employing regularized model selection techniques…

成对比较模型的可处理岭回归AI 解读

Paired comparison models, such as Bradley-Terry and Thurstone-Mosteller, are commonly used to estimate relative strengths of pairwise compared items in tournament-style data. We discuss estimation of paired comparison models with a ridge penalty. A new approach is derived which combines empirical Bayes and composite likelihoods without any need to re-fit the model, as a convenient alternative to cross-validation of the ridge tuning parameter. Simulation studies demonstrate…

利用随机森林模型预测阿根廷短期通胀AI 解读

This paper examines the performance of Random Forest models in forecasting short-term monthly inflation in Argentina, based on a database of monthly indicators since 1962. It is found that these models achieve forecast accuracy that is statistically comparable to the consensus of market analysts' expectations surveyed by the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA) and to traditional econometric models. One advantage of Random Forest models is that, as they are non-parametric, they…

高维缺失数据下的逻辑回归：插补、正则化与普适性AI 解读

We study high-dimensional, ridge-regularized logistic regression in a setting in which the covariates may be missing or corrupted by additive noise. When both the covariates and the additive corruptions are independent and normally distributed, we provide exact characterizations of both the prediction error as well as the estimation error. Moreover, we show that these characterizations are universal: as long as the entries of the data matrix satisfy a set of independence and…

整群随机试验的共形因果推断：无需渐近近似的模型稳健方法AI 解读

Traditional statistical inference in cluster randomized trials typically invokes the asymptotic theory that requires the number of clusters to approach infinity. In this article, we propose an alternative conformal causal inference framework for analyzing cluster randomized trials that achieves the target inferential goal in finite samples without the need for asymptotic approximations. Different from traditional inference focusing on estimating the average treatment effect,…