论文检索

时间依赖下高维线性模型的最优变点检验AI 解读

In this paper, we study change-point testing for high-dimensional linear models, an important problem that has not been well explored in the literature. Specifically, we propose a quadratic-form cumulative sum (CUSUM) statistic to test the stability of regression coefficients in high-dimensional linear models. The test controls type-I error at any desired level and is robust to temporally dependent observations. We establish its asymptotic distribution under the null…

含共同因子的动态时空与网络 ARCH 模型AI 解读

We introduce a dynamic spatiotemporal volatility model that extends traditional approaches by incorporating spatial, temporal, and spatiotemporal spillover effects, along with volatility-specific observed and latent factors. The model offers a more general network interpretation, making it applicable for studying various types of network spillovers. The primary innovation lies in incorporating volatility-specific latent factors into the dynamic spatiotemporal volatility…

基于结构因果关系的可泛化概念发现模型AI 解读

The rising need for explainable deep neural network architectures has utilized semantic concepts as explainable units. Several approaches utilizing disentangled representation learning estimate the generative factors and utilize them as concepts for explaining DNNs. However, even though the generative factors for a dataset remain fixed, concepts are not fixed entities and vary based on downstream tasks. In this paper, we propose a disentanglement mechanism utilizing a…

高维预测变量下的预测分位数回归：变量筛选方法AI 解读

This paper advances a variable screening approach to enhance conditional quantile forecasts using high-dimensional predictors. We have refined and augmented the quantile partial correlation (QPC)-based variable screening proposed by Ma et al. (2017) to accommodate $β$-mixing time-series data. Our approach is inclusive of i.i.d scenarios but introduces new convergence bounds for time-series contexts, suggesting the performance of QPC-based screening is influenced by the…

利用 HeartSteps 微随机试验的纵向函数数据建模移动健康干预的时变效应AI 解读

To optimize mobile health interventions and advance domain knowledge on intervention design, it is critical to understand how the intervention effect varies over time and with contextual information. This study aims to assess how a push notification suggesting physical activity influences individuals' step counts using data from the HeartSteps micro-randomized trial (MRT). The statistical challenges include the time-varying treatments and longitudinal functional step count…

基于异质环境优化的因果估计AI 解读

This paper presents a new optimization approach to causal estimation. Given data that contains covariates and an outcome, which covariates are causes of the outcome, and what is the strength of the causality? In classical machine learning (ML), the goal of optimization is to maximize predictive accuracy. However, some covariates might exhibit a non-causal association with the outcome. Such spurious associations provide predictive power for classical ML, but they prevent us…

经验熵最优传输的低复杂度适应AI 解读

Entropic optimal transport (EOT) presents an effective and computationally viable alternative to unregularized optimal transport (OT), offering diverse applications for large-scale data analysis. In this work, we derive novel statistical bounds for empirical plug-in estimators of the EOT cost and show that their statistical performance in the entropy regularization parameter $ε$ and the sample size $n$ only depends on the simpler of the two probability measures. For…

利用多个工具变量识别离散、有序及连续处理的因果效应AI 解读

Inferring causal relationships from observational data is often challenging due to endogeneity. This paper provides new identification results for causal effects of discrete, ordered and continuous treatments using multiple binary instruments. The key contribution is the identification of a new causal parameter that has a straightforward interpretation with a positive weighting scheme and is applicable in many settings due to a mild monotonicity assumption. This paper…

异质性处理效应的数据驱动估计AI 解读

Estimating how a treatment affects different individuals, known as heterogeneous treatment effect estimation, is an important problem in empirical sciences. In the last few years, there has been a considerable interest in adapting machine learning algorithms to the problem of estimating heterogeneous effects from observational and experimental data. However, these algorithms often make strong assumptions about the observed features in the data and ignore the structure of the…

无需估计秩的低秩模型推断AI 解读

This paper studies the inference about linear functionals of high-dimensional low-rank matrices. While most existing inference methods would require consistent estimation of the true rank, our procedure is robust to rank misspecification, making it a promising approach in applications where rank estimation can be unreliable. We estimate the low-rank spaces using pre-specified weighting matrices, known as diversified projections. A novel statistical insight is that, unlike…

相依新息高维线性过程的集中不等式AI 解读

We develop concentration inequalities for the $l_\infty$ norm of vector linear processes with sub-Weibull, mixingale innovations. This inequality is used to obtain a concentration bound for the maximum entrywise norm of the lag-$h$ autocovariance matrix of linear processes. We apply these inequalities to sparse estimation of large-dimensional VAR(p) systems and heterocedasticity and autocorrelation consistent (HAC) high-dimensional covariance estimation.

FAStEN：高维函数型回归中高效自适应的特征选择与估计方法AI 解读

Functional regression analysis is an established tool for many contemporary scientific applications. Regression problems involving large and complex data sets are ubiquitous, and feature selection is crucial for avoiding overfitting and achieving accurate predictions. We propose a new, flexible and ultra-efficient approach to perform feature selection in a sparse high dimensional function-on-function regression problem, and we show how to extend it to the scalar-on-function…

Multi-CATE：对未知协变量分布变化稳健的多重准确条件平均处理效应估计AI 解读

Estimating heterogeneous treatment effects is important to tailor treatments to those individuals who would most likely benefit. However, conditional average treatment effect predictors may often be trained on one population but possibly deployed on different, possibly unknown populations. We use methodology for learning multi-accurate predictors to post-process CATE T-learners (differenced regressions) to become robust to unknown covariate shifts at the time of deployment.…

短面板的简易交互固定效应估计量AI 解读

We study the interactive effects (IE) model as an extension of the conventional additive effects (AE) model. For the AE model, the fixed effects estimator can be obtained by applying least squares to a regression that adds a linear projection of the fixed effect on the explanatory variables (Mundlak, 1978; Chamberlain, 1984). In this paper, we develop a novel estimator -- the projection-based IE (PIE) estimator -- for the IE model that is based on a similar approach. We show…

基于Bregman近端梯度算法的正则化Rényi散度最小化AI 解读

We study the variational inference problem of minimizing a regularized Rényi divergence over an exponential family. We propose to solve this problem with a Bregman proximal gradient algorithm. We propose a sampling-based algorithm to cover the black-box setting, corresponding to a stochastic Bregman proximal gradient algorithm with biased gradient estimator. We show that the resulting algorithms can be seen as relaxed moment-matching algorithms with an additional proximal…

降低凸回归中的过拟合AI 解读

Convex regression is a method for estimating the convex function from a data set. This method has played an important role in operations research, economics, machine learning, and many other areas. However, it has been empirically observed that convex regression produces inconsistent estimates of convex functions and extremely large subgradients near the boundary as the sample size increases. In this paper, we provide theoretical evidence of this overfitting behavior. To…

极端事件建模：单变量与多变量数据驱动方法AI 解读

This article summarizes the contribution of team genEVA to the EVA (2023) Conference Data Challenge. The challenge comprises four individual tasks, with two focused on univariate extremes and two related to multivariate extremes. In the first univariate assignment, we estimate a conditional extremal quantile using a quantile regression approach with neural networks. For the second, we develop a fine-tuning procedure for improved extremal quantile estimation with a given…

Cox 模型协变量不完整时的可扩展似然估计与变量选择AI 解读

Regression analysis with missing data is a long-standing and challenging problem, particularly when there are many missing variables with arbitrary missing patterns. Likelihood-based methods, although theoretically appealing, are often computationally inefficient or even infeasible when dealing with a large number of missing variables. In this paper, we consider the Cox regression model with incomplete covariates that are missing at random. We develop an…

高维矩阵值自回归模型的正则化估计AI 解读

Matrix-variate time series data are increasingly popular in economics, statistics, and environmental studies, among other fields. This paper develops regularized estimation methods for analyzing high-dimensional matrix-variate time series using bilinear matrix-variate autoregressive models. The bilinear autoregressive structure is widely used for matrix-variate time series, as it reduces model complexity while capturing interactions between rows and columns. However, when…

识别高维结果空间中的稀疏处理效应AI 解读

Based on technological advances in sensing modalities, randomized trials with primary outcomes represented as high-dimensional vectors have become increasingly prevalent. For example, these outcomes could be week-long time-series data from wearable devices or high-dimensional neuroimaging data, such as from functional magnetic resonance imaging. This paper focuses on randomized treatment studies with such high-dimensional outcomes characterized by sparse treatment effects,…

PLS 估计量预测风险的非渐近上界AI 解读

We investigate the theoretical performances of the Partial Least Square (PLS) algorithm in a high dimensional context. We provide upper bounds on the risk in prediction for the statistical linear model when considering the PLS estimator. Our bounds are non-asymptotic and are expressed in terms of the number of observations, the noise level, the properties of the design matrix, and the number of considered PLS components. In particular, we exhibit some scenarios where the…

刻画M估计量精确误差的非线性方程解的存在性AI 解读

Major progress has been made in the previous decade to characterize the asymptotic behavior of regularized M-estimators in high-dimensional regression problems in the proportional asymptotic regime where the sample size $n$ and the number of features $p$ are increasing simultaneously such that $n/p\to δ\in(0,\infty)$, using powerful tools such as Approximate Message Passing or the Convex Gaussian Min-Max Theorem (CGMT). The asymptotic error and behavior of the regularized…

生存分析中空间定义环境暴露的测量误差校正AI 解读

Environmental exposures are often defined using buffer zones around geocoded home addresses, but these static boundaries can miss dynamic daily activity patterns, leading to biased results. This paper presents a novel measurement error correction method for spatially defined environmental exposures within a survival analysis framework using the Cox proportional hazards model. The method corrects high-dimensional surrogate exposures from geocoded residential data at multiple…

缺失数据下线性分类方法入门AI 解读

Supervised learning with missing data aims at building the best prediction of a target output based on partially-observed inputs. Major approaches to address this problem can be decomposed into $(i)$ impute-then-predict strategies, which first fill in the empty input components and then apply a unique predictor and $(ii)$ Pattern-by-Pattern (P-b-P) approaches, where a predictor is built on each missing pattern. In this paper, we theoretically analyze how three classical…