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预测还是拒绝：网络数据中具有不确定性评估的因果效应估计AI 解读

Due to the imbalanced nature of networked observational data, the causal effect predictions for some individuals can severely violate the positivity/overlap assumption, rendering unreliable estimations. Nevertheless, this potential risk of individual-level treatment effect estimation on networked data has been largely under-explored. To create a more trustworthy causal effect estimator, we propose the uncertainty-aware graph deep kernel learning (GraphDKL) framework with…

结合贝叶斯方法的遗传算法：阈值超越计数时间序列的多变点检测AI 解读

Although the applications of Non-Homogeneous Poisson Processes to model and study the threshold overshoots of interest in different time series of measurements have proven to provide good results, they needed to be complemented with an efficient and automatic diagnostic technique to establish the location of the change-points, which, when taken into account, make the estimated model fit poorly in regards of the information contained in the real model. For this reason, we…

时间序列预测误差的不确定性区间AI 解读

Inference for prediction errors is critical in time series forecasting pipelines. However, providing statistically meaningful uncertainty intervals for prediction errors remains relatively under-explored. Practitioners often resort to forward cross-validation (FCV) for obtaining point estimators and constructing confidence intervals based on the Central Limit Theorem (CLT). The naive version assumes independence, a condition that is usually invalid due to time correlation.…

双重高维情境老虎机：用于产品组合与定价联合决策的可解释模型AI 解读

Key challenges in running a retail business include how to select products to present to consumers (the assortment problem), and how to price products (the pricing problem) to maximize revenue or profit. Instead of considering these problems in isolation, we propose a joint approach to assortment-pricing based on contextual bandits. Our model is doubly high-dimensional, in that both context vectors and actions are allowed to take values in high-dimensional spaces. In order…

从深度滤波到深度计量经济学AI 解读

Calculating true volatility is an essential task for option pricing and risk management. However, it is made difficult by market microstructure noise. Particle filtering has been proposed to solve this problem as it favorable statistical properties, but relies on assumptions about underlying market dynamics. Machine learning methods have also been proposed but lack interpretability, and often lag in performance. In this paper we implement the SV-PF-RNN: a hybrid neural…

空间自回归分数阶积分移动平均模型AI 解读

In this paper, we introduce the concept of fractional integration for spatial autoregressive models. We show that the range of the dependence can be spatially extended or diminished by introducing a further fractional integration parameter to spatial autoregressive moving average models (SARMA). This new model is called the spatial autoregressive fractionally integrated moving average model, briefly sp-ARFIMA. We show the relation to time-series ARFIMA models and also to…

结合有偏与无偏因果估计的经验贝叶斯双重收缩AI 解读

Motivated by the proliferation of observational datasets and the need to integrate non-randomized evidence with randomized controlled trials, causal inference researchers have recently proposed several new methodologies for combining biased and unbiased estimators. We contribute to this growing literature by developing a new class of estimators for the data-combination problem: double-shrinkage estimators. Double-shrinkers first compute a data-driven convex combination of…

适用于任意结果变量的多处理异质效应子样本最小二乘估计AI 解读

For multiple treatments D=0,1,...,J, covariates X and outcome Y, the ordinary least squares estimator (OLS) of Y on (D1,...,DJ,X) is widely applied to a constant-effect linear model, where Dj is the dummy variable for D=j. However, the treatment effects are almost always X-heterogeneous in reality, or Y is noncontinuous, to invalidate such a linear model. The blind hope of practitioners is that the OLS "somehow" estimates a sensible average of the unknown X-heterogeneous…

利用袋外后分层高效估计处理效应AI 解读

Post-stratification is often used to estimate treatment effects with higher efficiency. However, the majority of existing post-stratification frameworks depend on prior knowledge of the distributions of covariates and assume that the units are classified into post-strata without error. We propose a novel method to determine a proper stratification rule by mapping the covariates into a post-stratification factor (PSF) using predictive regression models. Inspired by the…

揭开大数据统计匹配算法的面纱AI 解读

Statistical matching is an effective method for estimating causal effects in which treated units are paired with control units with ``similar'' values of confounding covariates prior to performing estimation. In this way, matching helps isolate the effect of treatment on response from effects due to the confounding covariates. While there are a large number of software packages to perform statistical matching, the algorithms and techniques used to solve statistical matching…

固定景观推断方法 flimo：近似贝叶斯计算的高效替代方案AI 解读

Modelling in biology must adapt to increasingly complex and massive data. The efficiency of the inference algorithms used to estimate model parameters is therefore questioned. Many of these are based on stochastic optimization processes that require significant computing time. We introduce the Fixed Landscape Inference MethOd (flimo), a new likelihood-free inference method for continuous state-space stochastic models. It applies deterministic gradient-based optimization…

结合广义线性结果模型的逆概率处理加权双重稳健估计AI 解读

There are now many options for doubly robust estimation; however, there is a concerning trend in the applied literature to believe that the combination of a propensity score and an adjusted outcome model automatically results in a doubly robust estimator and/or to misuse more complex established doubly robust estimators. A simple alternative, canonical link generalized linear models (GLM) fit via inverse probability of treatment (propensity score) weighted maximum likelihood…

美国各州与部分国家新冠基本再生数的结构计量估计AI 解读

This paper proposes a structural econometric approach to estimating the basic reproduction number ($\mathcal{R}_{0}$) of Covid-19. This approach identifies $\mathcal{R}_{0}$ in a panel regression model by filtering out the effects of mitigating factors on disease diffusion and is easy to implement. We apply the method to data from 48 contiguous U.S. states and a diverse set of countries. Our results reveal a notable concentration of $\mathcal{R}_{0}$ estimates with an…

有序时间序列的相邻类别模型及其在气候相关云杉卷叶蛾落叶动态中的应用AI 解读

This work proposes an adjacent-category autoregressive model for time series of ordinal variables. We apply this model to dendrochronological records to study the effect of climate on the intensity of spruce budworm defoliation during outbreaks in two sites in eastern Canada. The model's parameters are estimated using the maximum likelihood approach. We show that this estimator is consistent and asymptotically Gaussian distributed. We also propose a Portemanteau test for…

等误差方差线性因果模型中结构不确定性下的置信推断AI 解读

Inferring the effect of interventions within complex systems is a fundamental problem of statistics. A widely studied approach employs structural causal models that postulate noisy functional relations among a set of interacting variables. The underlying causal structure is then naturally represented by a directed graph whose edges indicate direct causal dependencies. In a recent line of work, additional assumptions on the causal models have been shown to render this causal…

存在干扰参数时模型不完备性的稳健检验AI 解读

Economic models may exhibit incompleteness depending on whether or not they admit certain policy-relevant features such as strategic interaction, self-selection, or state dependence. We develop a novel test of model incompleteness and analyze its asymptotic properties. A key observation is that one can identify the least-favorable parametric model that represents the most challenging scenario for detecting local alternatives without knowledge of the selection mechanism. We…

大 N、小 T 面板数据中的空间相互依赖识别AI 解读

This paper develops a simple two-stage variational Bayesian algorithm to estimate panel spatial autoregressive models, where N, the number of cross-sectional units, is much larger than T, the number of time periods without restricting the spatial effects using a predetermined weighting matrix. We use Dirichlet-Laplace priors for variable selection and parameter shrinkage. Without imposing any a priori structures on the spatial linkages between variables, we let the data…

贷款定价的因果视角：选择偏差对报价响应函数识别的影响AI 解读

In lending, where prices are specific to both customers and products, having a well-functioning personalized pricing policy in place is essential to effective business making. Typically, such a policy must be derived from observational data, which introduces several challenges. While the problem of ``endogeneity'' is prominently studied in the established pricing literature, the problem of selection bias (or, more precisely, bid selection bias) is not. We take a step towards…

将多项试验推断推广至目标总体的两阶段方法AI 解读

When considering the effect a treatment will cause in a population of interest, we often look to evidence from randomized controlled trials. In settings where multiple trials on a treatment are available, we may wish to synthesize the trials' participant data to obtain causally interpretable estimates of the average treatment effect in a specific target population. Traditional meta-analytic approaches to synthesizing data from multiple studies estimate the average effect…

高维设定下的分布反事实分析AI 解读

In the context of treatment effect estimation, this paper proposes a new methodology to recover the counterfactual distribution when there is a single (or a few) treated unit and possibly a high-dimensional number of potential controls observed in a panel structure. The methodology accommodates, albeit does not require, the number of units to be larger than the number of time periods (high-dimensional setup). As opposed to modeling only the conditional mean, we propose to…

超阈值框架下分块估计量的渐近展开AI 解读

We consider disjoint and sliding blocks estimators of cluster indices for multivariate, regularly varying time series in the Peak-over-Threshold framework. We aim to provide a complete description of the limiting behaviour of these estimators. This is achieved by a precise expansion for the difference between the sliding and the disjoint blocks statistics. The rates in the expansion stem from internal clusters and boundary clusters. To obtain these rates we need to extend…

住宅租金的灵活贝叶斯分位数分析AI 解读

This article develops a random effects quantile regression model for panel data that allows for increased distributional flexibility, multivariate heterogeneity, and time-invariant covariates in situations where mean regression may be unsuitable. Our approach is Bayesian and builds upon the generalized asymmetric Laplace distribution to decouple the modeling of skewness from the quantile parameter. We derive an efficient simulation-based estimation algorithm, demonstrate its…

观察数据的因果性检验AI 解读

In prior work we have introduced an asymptotic threshold of sufficient randomness for causal inference from observational data. In this paper we extend that prior work in three main ways. First, we show how to empirically estimate a lower bound for the randomness from measures of concordance transported from studies of monozygotic twins. Second, we generalize our methodology for application on a finite population and we introduce methods to implement finite population…

G 估计量对无效工具变量的敏感性分析AI 解读

Instrumental variables regression is a tool that is commonly used in the analysis of observational data. The instrumental variables are used to make causal inference about the effect of a certain exposure in the presence of unmeasured confounders. A valid instrumental variable is a variable that is associated with the exposure, affects the outcome only through the exposure (exclusion criterion), and is not confounded with the outcome (exogeneity). These assumptions are…