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利用混合频率数据进行宏观预测的储备池计算方法AI 解读

Macroeconomic forecasting has recently started embracing techniques that can deal with large-scale datasets and series with unequal release periods. MIxed-DAta Sampling (MIDAS) and Dynamic Factor Models (DFM) are the two main state-of-the-art approaches that allow modeling series with non-homogeneous frequencies. We introduce a new framework called the Multi-Frequency Echo State Network (MFESN) based on a relatively novel machine learning paradigm called reservoir computing.…

用于脑电活动分析的分层随机效应状态空间模型AI 解读

Mental disorders present challenges in diagnosis and treatment due to their complex and heterogeneous nature. Electroencephalogram (EEG) has shown promise as a potential biomarker for these disorders. However, existing methods for analyzing EEG signals have limitations in addressing heterogeneity and capturing complex brain activity patterns between regions. This paper proposes a novel random effects state-space model (RESSM) for analyzing large-scale multi-channel…

利用基于模拟的校准比较随机波动模型中的 MCMC 算法AI 解读

Simulation Based Calibration (SBC) is applied to analyse two commonly used, competing Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms for estimating the posterior distribution of a stochastic volatility model. In particular, the bespoke 'off-set mixture approximation' algorithm proposed by Kim, Shephard, and Chib (1998) is explored together with a Hamiltonian Monte Carlo algorithm implemented through Stan. The SBC analysis involves a simulation study to assess whether each sampling…

非线性混合效应与非参数回归模型的改进置信区间AI 解读

Statistical inference for high dimensional parameters (HDPs) can be based on their intrinsic correlation; that is, parameters that are close spatially or temporally tend to have more similar values. This is why nonlinear mixed-effects models (NMMs) are commonly (and appropriately) used for models with HDPs. Conversely, in many practical applications of NMM, the random effects (REs) are actually correlated HDPs that should remain constant during repeated sampling for…

重新审视母亲教育对青少年学业的影响：网络观察研究中的双重稳健估计AI 解读

In many contexts, particularly when study subjects are adolescents, peer effects can invalidate typical statistical requirements in the data. For instance, it is plausible that a student's academic performance is influenced both by their own mother's educational level as well as that of their peers. Since the underlying social network is measured, the Add Health study provides a unique opportunity to examine the impact of maternal college education on adolescent school…

csranks：用于排名估计与推断的 R 软件包AI 解读

This article introduces the R package csranks for estimation and inference involving ranks. First, we review methods for the construction of confidence sets for ranks, namely marginal and simultaneous confidence sets as well as confidence sets for the identities of the tau-best. Second, we review methods for estimation and inference in regressions involving ranks. Third, we describe the implementation of these methods in csranks and illustrate their usefulness in two…

横截面与面板数据的有效偏差校正AI 解读

Bias correction can often improve the finite sample performance of estimators. We show that the choice of bias correction method has no effect on the higher-order variance of semiparametrically efficient parametric estimators, so long as the estimate of the bias is asymptotically linear. It is also shown that bootstrap, jackknife, and analytical bias estimates are asymptotically linear for estimators with higher-order expansions of a standard form. In particular, we find…

因果图中前门调整的线性时间算法AI 解读

Causal effect estimation from observational data is a fundamental task in empirical sciences. It becomes particularly challenging when unobserved confounders are involved in a system. This paper focuses on front-door adjustment -- a classic technique which, using observed mediators allows to identify causal effects even in the presence of unobserved confounding. While the statistical properties of the front-door estimation are quite well understood, its algorithmic aspects…

稀疏半参数双函数回归的快速高效算法AI 解读

A new sparse semiparametric model is proposed, which incorporates the influence of two functional random variables in a scalar response in a flexible and interpretable manner. One of the functional covariates is included through a single-index structure, while the other is included linearly through the high-dimensional vector formed by its discretised observations. For this model, two new algorithms are presented for selecting relevant variables in the linear part and…

预测变量为函数型与高维混合时的稀疏半参数回归AI 解读

This paper aims to front with dimensionality reduction in regression setting when the predictors are a mixture of functional variable and high-dimensional vector. A flexible model, combining both sparse linear ideas together with semiparametrics, is proposed. A wide scope of asymptotic results is provided: this covers as well rates of convergence of the estimators as asymptotic behaviour of the variable selection procedure. Practical issues are analysed through finite sample…

高斯链图模型的可识别性与一致估计AI 解读

The chain graph model admits both undirected and directed edges in one graph, where symmetric conditional dependencies are encoded via undirected edges and asymmetric causal relations are encoded via directed edges. Though frequently encountered in practice, the chain graph model has been largely under investigated in literature, possibly due to the lack of identifiability conditions between undirected and directed edges. In this paper, we first establish a set of novel…

分布鲁棒优化与稳健统计AI 解读

We review distributionally robust optimization (DRO), a principled approach for constructing statistical estimators that hedge against the impact of deviations in the expected loss between the training and deployment environments. Many well-known estimators in statistics and machine learning (e.g. AdaBoost, LASSO, ridge regression, dropout training, etc.) are distributionally robust in a precise sense. We hope that by discussing the DRO interpretation of well-known…

高维函数型图模型结构学习：邻域选择方法AI 解读

Undirected graphical models are widely used to model the conditional independence structure of vector-valued data. However, in many modern applications, for example those involving EEG and fMRI data, observations are more appropriately modeled as multivariate random functions rather than vectors. Functional graphical models have been proposed to model the conditional independence structure of such functional data. We propose a neighborhood selection approach to estimate the…

随机对照试验中保护隐私的分位数处理效应估计AI 解读

In accordance with the principle of "data minimization", many internet companies are opting to record less data. However, this is often at odds with A/B testing efficacy. For experiments with units with multiple observations, one popular data minimizing technique is to aggregate data for each unit. However, exact quantile estimation requires the full observation-level data. In this paper, we develop a method for approximate Quantile Treatment Effect (QTE) analysis using…

右删失结局下最优治疗规则估计量的有限样本表现AI 解读

Patient care may be improved by recommending treatments based on patient characteristics when there is treatment effect heterogeneity. Recently, there has been a great deal of attention focused on the estimation of optimal treatment rules that maximize expected outcomes. However, there has been comparatively less attention given to settings where the outcome is right-censored, especially with regard to the practical use of estimators. In this study, simulations were…

电厂排放控制政策的环境正义影响：二部网络干扰下的异质因果效应估计AI 解读

Emissions generators, such as coal-fired power plants, are key contributors to air pollution and thus environmental policies to reduce their emissions have been proposed. Furthermore, marginalized groups are exposed to disproportionately high levels of this pollution and have heightened susceptibility to its adverse health impacts. As a result, robust evaluations of the heterogeneous impacts of air pollution regulations are key to justifying and designing maximally…

考虑异方差的分层抽样：改进增益建模AI 解读

In many business applications, including online marketing and customer churn prevention, randomized controlled trials (RCT's) are conducted to investigate on the effect of specific treatment (coupon offers, advertisement mailings,...). Such RCT's allow for the estimation of average treatment effects as well as the training of (uplift) models for the heterogeneity of treatment effects between individuals. The problem with these RCT's is that they are costly and this cost…

网络异质性干扰下的个体治疗效应学习AI 解读

Estimates of individual treatment effects from networked observational data are attracting increasing attention these days. One major challenge in network scenarios is the violation of the stable unit treatment value assumption (SUTVA), which assumes that the treatment assignment of a unit does not influence others' outcomes. In network data, due to interference, the outcome of a unit is influenced not only by its treatment (i.e., direct effects) but also by others'…

大量工具变量下的弱识别AI 解读

Linear instrumental variable regressions are widely used to estimate causal effects. Many instruments arise from the use of ``technical'' instruments and more recently from the empirical strategy of ``judge design''. This paper surveys and summarizes ideas from recent literature on estimation and statistical inferences with many instruments for a single endogenous regressor. We discuss how to assess the strength of the instruments and how to conduct weak…

线性不等式约束下贝塔回归模型的贝叶斯分析及应用AI 解读

ReRecent studies in machine learning are based on models in which parameters or state variables are bounded restricted. These restrictions are from prior information to ensure the validity of scientific theories or structural consistency based on physical phenomena. The valuable information contained in the restrictions must be considered during the estimation process to improve estimation accuracy. Many researchers have focused on linear regression models subject to linear…

用迁移反事实学习评估电力服务不公平AI 解读

Energy justice is a growing area of interest in interdisciplinary energy research. However, identifying systematic biases in the energy sector remains challenging due to confounding variables, intricate heterogeneity in counterfactual effects, and limited data availability. First, this paper demonstrates how one can evaluate counterfactual unfairness in a power system by analyzing the average causal effect of a specific protected attribute. Subsequently, we use subgroup…

预期短缺的LASSO估计AI 解读

We propose an $\ell_1$-penalized estimator for high-dimensional models of Expected Shortfall (ES). The estimator is obtained as the solution to a least-squares problem for an auxiliary dependent variable, which is defined as a transformation of the dependent variable and a pre-estimated tail quantile. Leveraging a sparsity condition, we derive a nonasymptotic bound on the prediction and estimator errors of the ES estimator, accounting for the estimation error in the…

去中心化网络上的经验似然推断AI 解读

As a nonparametric statistical inference approach, empirical likelihood has been found very useful in numerous occasions. However, it encounters serious computational challenges when applied directly to the modern massive dataset. This article studies empirical likelihood inference over decentralized distributed networks, where the data are locally collected and stored by different nodes. To fully utilize the data, this article fuses Lagrange multipliers calculated in…

局部投影与VAR：来自数千种数据生成过程的经验AI 解读

We conduct a simulation study of Local Projection (LP) and Vector Autoregression (VAR) estimators of structural impulse responses across thousands of data generating processes, designed to mimic the properties of the universe of U.S. macroeconomic data. Our analysis considers various identification schemes and several variants of LP and VAR estimators, employing bias correction, shrinkage, or model averaging. A clear bias-variance trade-off emerges: LP estimators have lower…