论文检索

统计机制设计：稳健定价、估计与推断AI 解读

This paper tackles challenges in pricing and revenue projections due to consumer uncertainty. We propose a novel data-based approach for firms facing unknown consumer type distributions. Unlike existing methods, we assume firms only observe a finite sample of consumers' types. We introduce \emph{empirically optimal mechanisms}, a simple and intuitive class of sample-based mechanisms with strong finite-sample revenue guarantees. Furthermore, we leverage our results to develop…

基于非凸组惩罚的稳健正则化聚类多任务学习AI 解读

Multi-task learning (MTL) aims to improve estimation and prediction performance by sharing common information among related tasks. One natural assumption in MTL is that tasks are classified into clusters based on their characteristics. However, existing MTL methods based on this assumption often ignore outlier tasks that have large task-specific components or no relation to other tasks. To address this issue, we propose a novel MTL method called Multi-Task Learning via…

高维图卷积回归模型下的迁移学习用于节点分类AI 解读

Node classification is a fundamental task, but obtaining node classification labels can be challenging and expensive in many real-world scenarios. Transfer learning has emerged as a promising solution to address this challenge by leveraging knowledge from source domains to enhance learning in a target domain. Existing transfer learning methods for node classification primarily focus on integrating Graph Convolutional Networks (GCNs) with various transfer learning techniques.…

RealTCD：结合大语言模型的干预数据时序因果发现AI 解读

In the field of Artificial Intelligence for Information Technology Operations, causal discovery is pivotal for operation and maintenance of graph construction, facilitating downstream industrial tasks such as root cause analysis. Temporal causal discovery, as an emerging method, aims to identify temporal causal relationships between variables directly from observations by utilizing interventional data. However, existing methods mainly focus on synthetic datasets with heavy…

交错 DID-IV 设计中的双向固定效应工具变量回归AI 解读

Many studies run two-way fixed effects instrumental variable (TWFEIV) regressions, leveraging variation in the timing of policy adoption across units as an instrument for treatment. This paper studies the properties of the TWFEIV estimator in staggered instrumented difference-in-differences (DID-IV) designs. We show that in settings with the staggered adoption of the instrument across units, the TWFEIV estimator can be decomposed into a weighted average of all possible…

个性化决策中最优线性治疗规则的推断AI 解读

Personalized decision-making, tailored to individual characteristics, is gaining significant attention. The optimal treatment regime aims to provide the best-expected outcome in the entire population, known as the value function. One approach to determine this optimal regime is by maximizing the Augmented Inverse Probability Weighting (AIPW) estimator of the value function. However, the derived treatment regime can be intricate and nonlinear, limiting their use. For clarity…

自动选择未观测混杂因素的代理变量AI 解读

Recently, interest has grown in the use of proxy variables of unobserved confounding for inferring the causal effect in the presence of unmeasured confounders from observational data. One difficulty inhibiting the practical use is finding valid proxy variables of unobserved confounding to a target causal effect of interest. These proxy variables are typically justified by background knowledge. In this paper, we investigate the estimation of causal effects among multiple…

将试验推断推广到目标总体AI 解读

Randomized Controlled Trials (RCTs) are pivotal in generating internally valid estimates with minimal assumptions, serving as a cornerstone for researchers dedicated to advancing causal inference methods. However, extending these findings beyond the experimental cohort to achieve externally valid estimates is crucial for broader scientific inquiry. This paper delves into the forefront of addressing these external validity challenges, encapsulating the essence of a…

通过重采样实现稳定性：超越实数输出的统计问题AI 解读

Model averaging techniques based on resampling methods (such as bootstrapping or subsampling) have been utilized across many areas of statistics, often with the explicit goal of promoting stability in the resulting output. We provide a general, finite-sample theoretical result guaranteeing the stability of bagging when applied to algorithms that return outputs in a general space, so that the output is not necessarily a real-valued -- for example, an algorithm that estimates…

灵活逆处理概率与逆强度加权：信息性删失、变量纳入和权重截尾AI 解读

Many observational studies feature irregular longitudinal data, where the observation times are not common across individuals in the study. Further, the observation times may be related to the longitudinal outcome. In this setting, failing to account for the informative observation process may result in biased causal estimates. This can be coupled with other sources of bias, including non-randomized treatment assignments and informative censoring. This paper provides an…

具有高维资产特征的动态潜在因子模型AI 解读

We develop novel estimation procedures with supporting econometric theory for a dynamic latent-factor model with high-dimensional asset characteristics, that is, the number of characteristics is on the order of the sample size. Utilizing the Double Selection Lasso estimator, our procedure employs regularization to eliminate characteristics with low signal-to-noise ratios yet maintains asymptotically valid inference for asset pricing tests. The crypto asset class is…

SSRIs 对抑郁症的条目层面异质性治疗效应AI 解读

In analysis of randomized controlled trials (RCTs) with patient-reported outcome measures (PROMs), Item Response Theory (IRT) models that allow for heterogeneity in the treatment effect at the item level merit consideration. These models for ``item-level heterogeneous treatment effects'' (IL-HTE) can provide more accurate statistical inference, allow researchers to better generalize their results, and resolve critical identification problems in the estimation of interaction…

用深度学习生成美国 GDP 增长密度即时预测AI 解读

Recent results in the literature indicate that artificial neural networks (ANNs) can outperform the dynamic factor model (DFM) in terms of the accuracy of GDP nowcasts. Compared to the DFM, the performance advantage of these highly flexible, nonlinear estimators is particularly evident in periods of recessions and structural breaks. From the perspective of policy-makers, however, nowcasts are the most useful when they are conveyed with uncertainty attached to them. While the…

因果 de Finetti：可交换数据中不变因果结构的识别AI 解读

Constraint-based causal discovery methods leverage conditional independence tests to infer causal relationships in a wide variety of applications. Just as the majority of machine learning methods, existing work focuses on studying $\textit{independent and identically distributed}$ data. However, it is known that even with infinite i.i.d.$\ $ data, constraint-based methods can only identify causal structures up to broad Markov equivalence classes, posing a fundamental…

极端偏最小二乘的收缩估计AI 解读

This work focuses on dimension-reduction techniques for modelling conditional extreme values. Specifically, we investigate the idea that extreme values of a response variable can be explained by nonlinear functions derived from linear projections of an input random vector. In this context, the estimation of projection directions is examined, as approached by the Extreme Partial Least Squares (EPLS) method--an adaptation of the original Partial Least Squares (PLS) method…

预测时间序列中的未来变点AI 解读

Change-point detection and estimation procedures have been widely developed in the literature. However, commonly used approaches in change-point analysis have mainly been focusing on detecting change-points within an entire time series (off-line methods), or quickest detection of change-points in sequentially observed data (on-line methods). Both classes of methods are concerned with change-points that have already occurred. The arguably more important question of when…

最优分类工具变量AI 解读

This paper discusses estimation with a categorical instrumental variable in settings with potentially few observations per category. The proposed categorical instrumental variable estimator (CIV) leverages a regularization assumption that implies existence of a latent categorical variable with fixed finite support achieving the same first stage fit as the observed instrument. In asymptotic regimes that allow the number of observations per category to grow at arbitrary small…

鸽巢设计：从在线匹配视角平衡序贯实验AI 解读

Practitioners and academics have long appreciated the benefits of covariate balancing when they conduct randomized experiments. For web-facing firms running online A/B tests, however, it still remains challenging in balancing covariate information when experimental subjects arrive sequentially. In this paper, we study an online experimental design problem, which we refer to as the "Online Blocking Problem." In this problem, experimental subjects with heterogeneous covariate…

正常组织并发症概率的边际结构模型AI 解读

The goal of radiation therapy for cancer is to deliver prescribed radiation dose to the tumor while minimizing dose to the surrounding healthy tissues. To evaluate treatment plans, the dose distribution to healthy organs is commonly summarized as dose-volume histograms (DVHs). Normal tissue complication probability (NTCP) modelling has centered around making patient-level risk predictions with features extracted from the DVHs, but few have considered adapting a causal…

基于累积量近似的快速高效物种分布预测AI 解读

Species distribution modeling plays an important role in estimating the habitat suitability of species using environmental variables. For this purpose, Maxent and the Poisson point process are popular and powerful methods extensively employed across various ecological and biological sciences. However, the computational speed becomes prohibitively slow when using huge background datasets, which is often the case with fine-resolution data or global-scale estimations. To…

极端情形下的处理效应AI 解读

Understanding treatment effects in extreme regimes is important for characterizing risks associated with different interventions. This is hindered by the unavailability of counterfactual outcomes and the rarity and difficulty of collecting extreme data in practice. To address this issue, we propose a new framework based on extreme value theory for estimating treatment effects in extreme regimes. We quantify these effects using variations in tail decay rates of potential…

高维线性回归中的（分组）对抗训练AI 解读

Adversarial training can achieve robustness against adversarial perturbations and has been widely used in machine learning models. This paper delivers a non-asymptotic consistency analysis of the adversarial training procedure under $\ell_\infty$-perturbation in high-dimensional linear regression. It will be shown that the associated convergence rate of prediction error can achieve the minimax rate up to a logarithmic factor in the high-dimensional linear regression on the…

多元 spike-and-slab LASSO 的后验收缩与不确定性量化AI 解读

We study the asymptotic properties of Deshpande et al.\ (2019)'s multivariate spike-and-slab LASSO (mSSL) procedure for simultaneous variable and covariance selection in the sparse multivariate linear regression problem. In that problem, $q$ correlated responses are regressed onto $p$ covariates and the mSSL works by placing separate spike-and-slab priors on the entries in the matrix of marginal covariate effects and off-diagonal elements in the upper triangle of the…

基于贝叶斯卷积神经网络的广义线性模型AI 解读

Convolutional neural networks (CNNs) provide flexible function approximations for a wide variety of applications when the input variables are in the form of images or spatial data. Although CNNs often outperform traditional statistical models in prediction accuracy, statistical inference, such as estimating the effects of covariates and quantifying the prediction uncertainty, is not trivial due to the highly complicated model structure and overparameterization. To address…