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带预测变量图结构的稀疏 Fréchet 充分降维AI 解读

Fréchet regression has received considerable attention to model metric-space valued responses that are complex and non-Euclidean data, such as probability distributions and vectors on the unit sphere. However, existing Fréchet regression literature focuses on the classical setting where the predictor dimension is fixed, and the sample size goes to infinity. This paper proposes sparse Fréchet sufficient dimension reduction with graphical structure among high-dimensional…

利用再中心化工具变量估计需求AI 解读

We develop a new approach to estimating flexible demand models with exogenous supply-side shocks. Our approach avoids conventional assumptions of exogenous product characteristics, putting no restrictions on product entry, despite using instrumental variables that incorporate characteristic variation. The proposed instruments are model-predicted responses of endogenous variables to the exogenous shocks, recentered to avoid bias from endogenous characteristics. We illustrate…

利用共享因子结构与非凸惩罚改进矩阵补全AI 解读

This article investigates the problem of noisy low-rank matrix completion with a shared factor structure, leveraging the auxiliary information from the missing indicator matrix to enhance prediction accuracy. Despite decades of development in matrix completion, the potential relationship between observed data and missing indicators has largely been overlooked. To address this gap, we propose a joint modeling framework for the observed data and missing indicators within the…

差分隐私切片逆回归：极小极大最优性与算法AI 解读

Privacy preservation has become a critical concern in high-dimensional data analysis due to the growing prevalence of data-driven applications. Since its proposal, sliced inverse regression has emerged as a widely utilized statistical technique to reduce the dimensionality of covariates while maintaining sufficient statistical information. In this paper, we propose optimally differentially private algorithms specifically designed to address privacy concerns in the context of…

分布值结局的断点回归设计AI 解读

This article introduces Regression Discontinuity Design (RDD) with Distribution-Valued Outcomes (R3D), extending the standard RDD framework to settings where the outcome is a distribution rather than a scalar. Such settings arise when treatment is assigned at a higher level of aggregation than the outcome-for example, when a subsidy is allocated based on a firm-level revenue cutoff while the outcome of interest is the distribution of employee wages within the firm. Since…

采用点质量与非局部因子得分先验的稀疏贝叶斯因子模型AI 解读

Bayesian factor models are widely used for dimensionality reduction and pattern discovery in high-dimensional datasets across diverse fields. These models typically focus on imposing priors on factor loading to induce sparsity and improve interpretability. However, factor scores, which play a critical role in individual-level associations with factors, have received less attention and are assumed to follow a standard normal distribution. This assumption oversimplifies the…

利用扩散模型生成数据增强因果效应估计AI 解读

Estimating causal effects from observational data is inherently challenging due to the lack of observable counterfactual outcomes and even the presence of unmeasured confounding. Traditional methods often rely on restrictive, untestable assumptions or necessitate valid instrumental variables, significantly limiting their applicability and robustness. In this paper, we introduce Augmented Causal Effect Estimation (ACEE), an innovative approach that utilizes synthetic data…

任意逐元素依赖下的结构矩阵学习与马尔可夫转移核估计AI 解读

The problem of structured matrix estimation has been studied mostly under strong noise dependence assumptions. This paper considers a general framework of noisy low-rank-plus-sparse matrix recovery, where the noise matrix may come from any joint distribution with arbitrary dependence across entries. We propose an incoherent-constrained least-square estimator and prove its tightness both in the sense of deterministic lower bound and matching minimax risks under various noise…

通过混合样本应对因果推断中的弱重叠AI 解读

In observational studies, the assumption of sufficient overlap (positivity) is fundamental for the identification and estimation of causal effects. Failing to account for this assumption yields inaccurate and potentially infeasible estimators. To address this issue, we introduce a simple yet novel approach, \textit{mixing}, which mitigates overlap violations by constructing a synthetic treated group that combines treated and control units. Our strategy offers three key…

从因果推断视角预测新用户事件AI 解读

Modeling and analysis for event series generated by users of heterogeneous behavioral patterns are closely involved in our daily lives, including credit card fraud detection, online platform user recommendation, and social network analysis. The most commonly adopted approach to this task is to assign users to behavior-based categories and analyze each of them separately. However, this requires extensive data to fully understand the user behavior, presenting challenges in…

多元计数时间序列的潜在高斯动态因子建模与预测AI 解读

This work considers estimation and forecasting in a multivariate, possibly high-dimensional count time series model constructed from a transformation of a latent Gaussian dynamic factor series. The estimation of the latent model parameters is based on second-order properties of the count and underlying Gaussian time series, yielding estimators of the underlying covariance matrices for which standard principal component analysis applies. Theoretical consistency results are…

动态有序高斯过程项目反应理论模型AI 解读

Social scientists are often interested in using ordinal indicators to estimate latent traits that change over time. Frequently, this is done with item response theoretic (IRT) models that describe the relationship between those latent traits and observed indicators. We combine recent advances in Bayesian nonparametric IRT, which makes minimal assumptions on shapes of item response functions, and Gaussian process time series methods to capture dynamic structures in latent…

依赖删失下服从者因果风险比的估计AI 解读

In this work, we are interested in studying the causal effect of an endogenous binary treatment on a dependently censored duration outcome. By dependent censoring, it is meant that the duration time ($T$) and right censoring time ($C$) are not statistically independent of each other, even after conditioning on the measured covariates. The endogeneity issue is handled by making use of a binary instrumental variable for the treatment. To deal with the dependent censoring…

未知测量误差分布下的非参数分位数回归与一致推断AI 解读

This paper studies the non-parametric estimation and uniform inference for the conditional quantile regression function (CQRF) with covariates exposed to measurement errors. We consider the case that the distribution of the measurement error is unknown and allowed to be either ordinary or super smooth. We estimate the density of the measurement error by the repeated measurements and propose the deconvolution kernel estimator for the CQRF. We derive the uniform Bahadur…

数据丰富环境下的因果推断框架AI 解读

We propose a formal model for counterfactual estimation with unobserved confounding in "data-rich" settings, i.e., where there are a large number of units and a large number of measurements per unit. Our model provides a bridge between the structural causal model view of causal inference common in the graphical models literature with that of the latent factor model view common in the potential outcomes literature. We show how classic models for potential outcomes and…

基于依赖结构的函数型时间序列模糊聚类AI 解读

Time series clustering is essential in scientific applications, yet methods for functional time series, collections of infinite-dimensional curves treated as random elements in a Hilbert space, remain underdeveloped. This work presents clustering approaches for functional time series that combine the fuzzy $C$-medoids and fuzzy $C$-means procedures with a novel dissimilarity measure tailored for functional data. This dissimilarity is based on an extension of the quantile…

横截面阶梯楔形整群随机试验中的中介分析AI 解读

Mediation analysis has been comprehensively studied for independent data but relatively little work has been done for correlated data, especially for the increasingly adopted stepped wedge cluster randomized trials (SW-CRTs). Motivated by challenges in underlying the effect mechanisms in pragmatic and implementation science clinical trials, we develop new methods for mediation analysis in SW-CRTs. Specifically, based on a linear and generalized linear mixed models, we…

高维重复事件的动态因子分析AI 解读

Recurrent event time data arise in many studies, including biomedicine, public health, marketing, and social media analysis. High-dimensional recurrent event data involving many event types and observations have become prevalent with advances in information technology. This paper proposes a semiparametric dynamic factor model for the dimension reduction of high-dimensional recurrent event data. The proposed model imposes a low-dimensional structure on the mean intensity…

聚类网络干扰下的个体化政策评估与学习AI 解读

Although there is now a large literature on policy evaluation and learning, much of the prior work assumes that the treatment assignment of one unit does not affect the outcome of another unit. Unfortunately, ignoring interference can lead to biased policy evaluation and ineffective learned policies. For example, treating influential individuals who have many friends can generate positive spillover effects, thereby improving the overall performance of an individualized…

具有灵活残差与离散马尔可夫动态的自激及互激点过程AI 解读

This work introduces a self and mutually exciting point process that embeds flexible residuals and intensity with discretely Markovian dynamics. By allowing the integration of diverse residual distributions, this model serves as an extension of the Hawkes process, facilitating intensity modeling. This model's nature enables a filtered historical simulation that more accurately incorporates the properties of the original time series. Furthermore, the process extends to…

基于极值尾部估计的非参数治愈模型AI 解读

In survival analysis, the estimation of the proportion of subjects who will never experience the event of interest, termed the cure rate, has received considerable attention recently. Its estimation can be a particularly difficult task when follow-up is not sufficient, that is when the censoring mechanism has a smaller support than the distribution of the target data. In the latter case, non-parametric estimators were recently proposed using extreme value methodology,…

两层嵌套 Logit 与序贯 LogitAI 解读

This technical note provides comprehensive derivations of fundamental equations in two-level nested and sequential logit models for analyzing hierarchical choice structures. We present derivations of the Berry (1994) inversion formula, nested inclusive values computation, and multi-level market share equations, complementing existing literature. While conceptually distinct, nested and sequential logit models share mathematical similarities and, under specific distributional…

隐藏混杂下的无监督领域适应AI 解读

We introduce a new predictive mechanism that operates in the presence of hidden confounding across distributionally diverse data sources while ensuring consistent estimation of causal parameters-despite their recognized suboptimality for prediction in the literature. Our method is based on a novel estimand that captures the dependence structure between response noise and covariates, incorporating causal parameters into a generative model that adaptively replicates the…

断点回归设计中的噪声诱导随机化AI 解读

Regression discontinuity designs assess causal effects in settings where treatment is determined by whether an observed running variable crosses a pre-specified threshold. Here we propose a new approach to identification, estimation, and inference in regression discontinuity designs that uses knowledge about exogenous noise (e.g., measurement error) in the running variable. In our strategy, we weight treated and control units to balance a latent variable of which the running…