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利用基础模型估计工资差异AI 解读

The rise of foundation models marks a paradigm shift in machine learning: instead of training specialized models from scratch, foundation models are first trained on massive datasets before being adapted or fine-tuned to make predictions on smaller datasets. Initially developed for text, foundation models have also excelled at making predictions about social science data. However, while many estimation problems in the social sciences use prediction as an intermediate step,…

评估真实世界证据模拟研究对随机试验的可重复性AI 解读

Background: The standard regulatory approach to assess replication success is the two-trials rule, requiring both the original and the replication study to be significant with effect estimates in the same direction. The sceptical p-value was recently presented as an alternative method for the statistical assessment of the replicability of study results. Methods: We review the statistical properties of the sceptical p-value and compare those to the two-trials rule. We extend…

面向分布福利的政策学习AI 解读

In this paper, we explore optimal treatment allocation policies that target distributional welfare. Most literature on treatment choice has considered utilitarian welfare based on the conditional average treatment effect (ATE). While average welfare is intuitive, it may yield undesirable allocations especially when individuals are heterogeneous (e.g., with outliers) - the very reason individualized treatments were introduced in the first place. This observation motivates us…

无需岭正则化的高维弱工具变量回归推断AI 解读

Inference of instrumental variable regression models with many weak instruments attracts many attentions recently. To extend the classical Anderson-Rubin test to high-dimensional setting, many procedures adopt ridge-regularization. However, we show that it is not necessary to consider ridge-regularization. Actually we propose a new quadratic-type test statistic which does not involve tuning parameters. Our quadratic-type test exhibits high power against dense alternatives.…

多层网络社区检测的正则化去偏谱聚类AI 解读

Community detection is a crucial problem in the analysis of multi-layer networks. While regularized spectral clustering methods using the classical regularized Laplacian matrix have shown great potential in handling sparse single-layer networks, to our knowledge, their potential in multi-layer network community detection remains unexplored. To address this gap, in this work, we introduce a new method, called regularized debiased sum of squared adjacency matrices (RDSoS), to…

保持可忽略性并实现协变量匹配的处理效应表示学习AI 解读

Estimating treatment effects from observational data is challenging due to two main reasons: (a) hidden confounding, and (b) covariate mismatch (control and treatment groups not having identical distributions). Long lines of works exist that address only either of these issues. To address the former, conventional techniques that require detailed knowledge in the form of causal graphs have been proposed. For the latter, covariate matching and importance weighting methods have…

数据分布变化流中的持续因果效应估计AI 解读

Causal effect estimation has been widely used in marketing optimization. The framework of an uplift model followed by a constrained optimization algorithm is popular in practice. To enhance performance in the online environment, the framework needs to be improved to address the complexities caused by temporal dataset shift. This paper focuses on capturing the dataset shift from user behavior and domain distribution changing over time. We propose an Incremental Causal Effect…

高维网络卷积回归模型下的迁移学习AI 解读

Transfer learning enhances model performance by utilizing knowledge from related domains, particularly when labeled data is scarce. While existing research addresses transfer learning under various distribution shifts in independent settings, handling dependencies in networked data remains challenging. To address this challenge, we propose a high-dimensional transfer learning framework based on network convolutional regression (NCR), inspired by the success of graph…

死亡截断下利用纳入生存信息的分位数估计观测数据处理效应AI 解读

The issue of "truncation by death" commonly arises in clinical research: subjects may die before their follow-up assessment, resulting in undefined clinical outcomes. To address this issue, we focus on survival-incorporated quantiles -- quantiles of a composite outcome combining death and clinical outcomes -- to summarize the effect of treatment. Using inverse probability of treatment weighting (IPTW), we propose an estimator for survival-incorporated quantiles from…

概率态射与核均值嵌入下的监督学习AI 解读

In this paper I propose a generative model of supervised learning that unifies two approaches to supervised learning, using a concept of a correct loss function. Addressing two measurability problems, which have been ignored in statistical learning theory, I propose to use convergence in outer probability to characterize the consistency of a learning algorithm. Building upon these results, I extend a result due to Cucker-Smale, which addresses the learnability of a…

部分和过程的函数型筛自助法及其变化点检测应用AI 解读

This paper applies the functional sieve bootstrap (FSB) to estimate the distribution of the partial sum process for time series stemming from a weakly stationary functional process. Consistency of the FSB procedure under weak assumptions on the underlying functional process is established. This result allows for the application of the FSB procedure to testing for a change-point in the mean of a functional time series using the CUSUM-statistic. We show that the FSB…

资产定价中的半参数条件因子模型AI 解读

We introduce a simple and tractable methodology for estimating semiparametric conditional latent factor models. Our approach disentangles the roles of characteristics in capturing factor betas of asset returns from ``alpha.'' We construct factors by extracting principal components from Fama-MacBeth managed portfolios. Applying this methodology to the cross-section of U.S. individual stock returns, we find compelling evidence of substantial nonzero pricing errors, even though…

使用大量相关弱工具和无效工具的稳健有效孟德尔随机化：去偏估计方程法AI 解读

Mendelian randomization (MR) is a widely used tool for causal inference in the presence of unmeasured confounders, which uses single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) as instrumental variables to estimate causal effects. However, SNPs often have weak effects on complex traits, leading to bias in existing MR analysis when weak instruments are included. In addition, existing MR methods often restrict analysis to independent SNPs via linkage disequilibrium clumping and result in…

超高维数据的岭偏相关筛选AI 解读

Variable selection in ultrahigh-dimensional linear regression is challenging due to its high computational cost. Therefore, a screening step is usually conducted before variable selection to significantly reduce the dimension. Here we propose a novel and simple screening method based on ordering the absolute sample ridge partial correlations. The proposed method takes into account not only the ridge regularized estimates of the regression coefficients but also the ridge…

用于条件平均处理效应模型选择的因果 Q 聚合AI 解读

Accurate estimation of conditional average treatment effects (CATE) is at the core of personalized decision making. While there is a plethora of models for CATE estimation, model selection is a nontrivial task, due to the fundamental problem of causal inference. Recent empirical work provides evidence in favor of proxy loss metrics with double robust properties and in favor of model ensembling. However, theoretical understanding is lacking. Direct application of prior…

多种检测原因下的检测阴性设计：统计偏差与解决方法AI 解读

Test-negative designs are widely used for post-market evaluation of vaccine effectiveness, particularly in cases when randomized trials are not feasible. Differing from classical test-negative designs where only healthcare-seekers with symptoms are included, recent test-negative designs have involved individuals with various reasons for testing, especially in an outbreak setting. While including these data can increase sample size and hence improve precision, concerns have…

利用工具变量识别和估计因果同伴效应AI 解读

In social science researches, causal inference regarding peer effects often faces significant challenges due to homophily bias and contextual confounding. For example, unmeasured health conditions (e.g., influenza) and psychological states (e.g., happiness, loneliness) can spread among closely connected individuals, such as couples or siblings. To address these issues, we define four effect estimands for dyadic data to characterize direct effects and spillover effects. We…

ReLU 积分概率度量及其应用AI 解读

We propose a parametric integral probability metric (IPM) to measure the discrepancy between two probability measures. The proposed IPM leverages a specific parametric family of discriminators, such as single-node neural networks with ReLU activation, to effectively distinguish between distributions, making it applicable in high-dimensional settings. By optimizing over the parameters of the chosen discriminator class, the proposed IPM demonstrates that its estimators have…

正则化广义协方差估计量AI 解读

We introduce a regularized Generalized Covariance (RGCov) estimator as an extension of the GCov estimator to high dimensional setting that results either from high-dimensional data or a large number of nonlinear transformations used in the objective function. The approach relies on a ridge-type regularization for high-dimensional matrix inversion in the objective function of the GCov. The RGCov estimator is consistent and asymptotically normally distributed. We provide the…

按处理状态分层抽样下的处理效应估计AI 解读

We study the estimation of treatment effects using samples stratified by treatment status. Standard estimators of the average treatment effect and the local average treatment effect are inconsistent in this setting. We propose consistent estimators and characterize their asymptotic distributions.

弱约束资料同化中的模型误差协方差估计AI 解读

State estimates from weak constraint 4D-Var data assimilation can vary significantly depending on the data and model error covariances. As a result, the accuracy of these estimates heavily depends on the correct specification of both model and observational data error covariances. In this work, we assume that the data error is known and and focus on estimating the model error covariance by framing weak constraint 4D-Var as a regularized inverse problem, where the inverse…

用于连续时间变化检测的伯恩斯坦多项式过程AI 解读

There is a lack of methodological results for continuous time change detection due to the challenges of noninformative prior specification and efficient posterior inference in this setting. Most methodologies to date assume data are collected according to uniformly spaced time intervals. This assumption incurs bias in the continuous time setting where, a priori, two consecutive observations measured closely in time are less likely to change than two consecutive observations…

随机系数模型的切片 Wasserstein 距离与扩散方法AI 解读

We propose a new minimum-distance estimator for linear random coefficient models. This estimator integrates the recently advanced sliced Wasserstein distance with the nearest neighbor methods, both of which enhance computational efficiency. We demonstrate that the proposed method is consistent in approximating the true distribution. Moreover, our formulation naturally leads to a diffusion process-based algorithm and is closely connected to treatment effect distribution…

基于图正则化的生存分析变量选择AI 解读

We study the variable selection problem in survival analysis to identify the most important factors affecting survival time. Our method incorporates prior knowledge of mutual correlations among variables, represented through a graph. We utilize the Cox proportional hazard model with a graph-based regularizer for variable selection. We present a computationally efficient algorithm developed to solve the graph regularized maximum likelihood problem by establishing connections…