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摆脱截断与删失限制的学习框架及其处理效应应用AI 解读

Time-to-event outcomes are often subject to left truncation and right censoring. While many survival analysis methods have been developed to handle truncation and censoring, majority of the past works require strong independence assumptions. We relax these stringent assumptions through leveraging covariate information together with orthogonal learning, and develop a liberating framework from left truncation and right censoring so that desirable properties like double…

含潜在变点的生存时间与纵向肿瘤负荷治愈率联合模型AI 解读

In non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) clinical trials, tumor burden (TB) is a key longitudinal biomarker for assessing treatment effects. Typically, standard-of-care (SOC) therapies and some novel interventions initially decrease TB; however, many patients subsequently experience an increase-indicating disease progression-while others show a continuous decline. In patients with an eventual TB increase, the change point marks the onset of progression and must occur before the…

协变量偏移下核岭回归的伪标签方法AI 解读

We develop and analyze a principled approach to kernel ridge regression under covariate shift. The goal is to learn a regression function with small mean squared error over a target distribution, based on unlabeled data from there and labeled data that may have a different feature distribution. We propose to split the labeled data into two subsets, and conduct kernel ridge regression on them separately to obtain a collection of candidate models and an imputation model. We…

面板数据分位数回归的分区野生自助法AI 解读

Practical inference procedures for quantile regression models of panel data have been a pervasive concern in empirical work, and can be especially challenging when the panel is observed over many time periods and temporal dependence needs to be taken into account. In this paper, we propose a new bootstrap method that applies random weighting to a partition of the data -- partition-invariant weights are used in the bootstrap data generating process -- to conduct statistical…

利用高维辅助表型改进基因组预测：遗传潜因子方法AI 解读

Decreasing costs and new technologies have led to an increase in the amount of data available to plant breeding programs. High-throughput phenotyping (HTP) platforms routinely generate high-dimensional datasets of secondary features that may be used to improve genomic prediction accuracy. However, integration of these data comes with challenges such as multicollinearity, parameter estimation in $p > n$ settings, and the computational complexity of many standard approaches.…

用伯努利自回归部分线性可加模型识别神经连接AI 解读

Characterising the interactions between spiking neurons is central to our understanding of cognitive processes such as memory, perception and decision making. In this work, we consider the problem of inferring connectivity in the brain network from non-stationary high-dimensional spike train data. Under a binned spike count representation of these data, we propose a Bernoulli autoregressive partially linear additive (BAPLA) model to identify the effective connectivity of a…

多项阈值化LASSO用于人类活动序列的可解释降维AI 解读

The widespread collection of data from mobile and wearable devices has created unprecedented opportunities to study human behavior in fine temporal resolution. One common structure for such data is categorical sequences: ordered, multinomial observations across many time points. These sequences present unique statistical challenges due to their high dimensionality and complex temporal dependence, including both short- and long-term correlations. Yet, there has been…

熵与复杂度的联合渐近分布AI 解读

We derive the asymptotic distribution of ordinal-pattern frequencies under weak dependence conditions and investigate the long-run covariance matrix not only analytically for moving-average, Gaussian, and the novel generalized coin-tossing processes, but also approximately by a simulation-based approach. Then, we deduce the asymptotic distribution of the entropy-complexity pair, which emerged as a popular tool for summarizing the time-series dynamics. Here, we make the…

利用注意力语言模型解读消费者偏好AI 解读

This paper proposes a new demand estimation method using attention-based language models. An encoder-only language model is trained in a two-stage process to analyze the natural language descriptions of used cars from a large US-based online auction marketplace. The approach enables semi-nonparametrically estimation for the demand primitives of a structural model representing the private valuations and market size for each vehicle listing. In the first stage, the language…

高维广义线性模型中基于采样的后验推断的多项式时间保证AI 解读

The problem of computing posterior functionals in general high-dimensional statistical models with possibly non-log-concave likelihood functions is considered. Based on the proof strategy of Nickl and Wang (2022), but using only local likelihood conditions and without relying on M-estimation theory, nonasymptotic statistical and computational guarantees are provided for a gradient based MCMC algorithm. Given a suitable initialiser, these guarantees scale polynomially in key…

高频事件研究中因果效应的识别与估计AI 解读

We provide precise conditions for nonparametric identification of causal effects by high-frequency event study regressions, which have been used widely in the recent macroeconomics, financial economics and political economy literatures. The high-frequency event study method regresses changes in an outcome variable on a measure of unexpected changes in a policy variable in a narrow time window around an event or a policy announcement (e.g., a 30-minute window around an FOMC…

大型因子模型中的移动和多变点检测AI 解读

This paper proposes a moving sum methodology for detecting multiple change points in high-dimensional time series under a factor model, where changes are attributed to those in loadings as well as emergence or disappearance of factors. We establish the asymptotic null distribution of the proposed test for family-wise error control, and show the consistency of the procedure for multiple change point estimation. Simulation studies and an application to a large dataset of…

无需饱和设定的非参数“丰富协变量”方法AI 解读

We consider two nonparametric approaches to ensure that linear instrumental variables estimators satisfy the rich-covariates condition emphasized by Blandhol et al. (2025), even when the instrument is not unconditionally randomly assigned and the model is not saturated. Both approaches start with a nonparametric estimate of the expectation of the instrument conditional on the covariates, and ensure that the rich-covariates condition is satisfied either by using as the…

利用工具变量双重稳健估计生存数据的最优治疗规则AI 解读

In survival contexts, substantial literature exists on estimating optimal treatment regimes, where treatments are assigned based on personal characteristics to maximize the survival probability. These methods assume that a set of covariates is sufficient to deconfound the treatment-outcome relationship. However, this assumption can be limited in observational studies or randomized trials in which non-adherence occurs. Therefore, we propose a novel approach to estimating…

稳健贝叶斯高维变量选择与推断：马蹄先验族AI 解读

Frequentist robust variable selection has been extensively investigated in high-dimensional regression. Despite success, developing the corresponding statistical inference procedures remains a challenging task. Recently, tackling this challenge from a Bayesian perspective has received much attention. In literature, the two-group spike-and-slab priors that can induce exact sparsity have been demonstrated to yield valid inference in robust sparse linear models. Nevertheless,…

分布式协方差矩阵估计的基本极限：条件强数据处理不等式方法AI 解读

Estimating high-dimensional covariance matrices is a key task across many fields. This paper explores the theoretical limits of distributed covariance estimation in a feature-split setting, where communication between agents is constrained. Specifically, we study a scenario in which multiple agents each observe different components of i.i.d. samples drawn from a sub-Gaussian random vector. A central server seeks to estimate the complete covariance matrix using a limited…

具有有序结果变量的成对数据模型AI 解读

We consider ordered logit models for directed network data that allow for flexible sender and receiver fixed effects that can vary arbitrarily across outcome categories. This structure poses a significant incidental parameter problem, particularly challenging under network sparsity or when some outcome categories are rare. We develop the first estimation method for this setting by extending tetrad-differencing conditional maximum likelihood (CML) techniques from binary…

因子增强框架下的二元响应预测AI 解读

In this paper, we propose a novel factor-augmented forecasting regression model with a binary response variable. We develop a maximum likelihood estimation method for the regression parameters and establish the asymptotic properties of the resulting estimators. Monte Carlo simulation results show that the proposed estimation method performs very well in finite samples. Finally, we demonstrate the usefulness of the proposed model through an application to U.S. recession…

基于贝叶斯超阈值块最大值的换热器管腐蚀评估AI 解读

Corrosion poses a hurdle for numerous industrial processes, and though corrosion can be measured directly, statistical approaches are often required to either correct for measurement error or extrapolate estimates of corrosion severity where measurements are unavailable. This article considers corrosion in heat exchangers tubes, where corrosion is typically reported in terms of maximum pit depth per inspected tube, and only a small proportion of tubes are inspected,…

基于混频数据的收入分布密度预测AI 解读

Modeling large dependent datasets in modern time series analysis is a crucial research area. One effective approach to handle such datasets is to transform the observations into density functions and apply statistical methods for further analysis. Income distribution forecasting, a common application scenario, benefits from predicting density functions as it accounts for uncertainty around point estimates, leading to more informed policy formulation. However, predictive…

离散值时间序列的预测推断AI 解读

For discrete-valued time series, predictive inference cannot be implemented through the construction of prediction intervals to some predetermined coverage level, as this is the case for real-valued time series. To address this problem, we propose to reverse the construction principle by considering preselected sets of interest and estimating the probability that a future observation of the process falls into these sets. The accuracy of the prediction is then evaluated by…

非参数FBST用于线性模型验证AI 解读

The Full Bayesian Significance Test (FBST) possesses many desirable aspects, such as dismissing the need for hypotheses to have positive prior probability and providing a measure of evidence against $H_0$. Still, few attempts have been made to bring the FBST to nonparametric settings, with the main drawback being the need to obtain the highest posterior density (HPD) in a function space. In this work, we use a Gaussian processes prior to derive the FBST for hypotheses of the…

高维时间序列的谱差分网络分析AI 解读

Spectral networks derived from multivariate time series data arise in many domains, from brain science to Earth science. Often, it is of interest to study how these networks change under different conditions. For instance, to better understand epilepsy, it would be interesting to capture the changes in the brain connectivity network as a patient experiences a seizure, using electroencephalography data. A common approach relies on estimating the networks in each condition and…

用于因果效应不确定性量化的贝叶斯目标极大似然估计AI 解读

Robust decision making involves making decisions in the presence of uncertainty and is often used in critical domains such as healthcare, supply chains, and finance. Causality plays a crucial role in decision-making as it predicts the change in an outcome (usually a key performance indicator) due to a treatment (also called an intervention). To facilitate robust decision making using causality, this paper proposes three Bayesian approaches of the popular Targeted Maximum…