论文检索

梯度提升回归的统计推断AI 解读

Gradient boosting is widely popular due to its flexibility and predictive accuracy. However, statistical inference and uncertainty quantification for gradient boosting remain challenging and under-explored. We propose a unified framework for statistical inference in gradient boosting regression. Our framework integrates dropout or parallel training with a recently proposed regularization procedure that allows for a central limit theorem (CLT) for boosting. With these…

Bagging 正则化 M 估计量的精确渐近理论AI 解读

We characterize the squared prediction risk of ensemble estimators obtained through subagging (subsample bootstrap aggregating) regularized M-estimators and construct a consistent estimator for the risk. Specifically, we consider a heterogeneous collection of $M \ge 1$ regularized M-estimators, each trained with (possibly different) subsample sizes, convex differentiable losses, and convex regularizers. We operate under the proportional asymptotics regime, where the sample…

动态离散选择模型中的连续永久不可观测异质性AI 解读

In dynamic discrete choice (DDC) analysis, it is common to use mixture models to control for unobserved heterogeneity. However, consistent estimation typically requires both restrictions on the support of unobserved heterogeneity and a high-level injectivity condition that is difficult to verify. This paper provides primitive conditions for point identification of a broad class of DDC models with multivariate continuous permanent unobserved heterogeneity. The results apply…

利用观测数据评价处理获益预测器：识别与混杂偏差AI 解读

A treatment benefit predictor (TBP) is a function that maps patient characteristics to an estimate of the treatment benefit for that patient. Such predictors support optimizing individualized treatment decisions, which are central to precision medicine. However, evaluating the predictive performance of a TBP is challenging, as this often must be conducted in a sample where treatment assignment is not random. After briefly reviewing several metrics for evaluating TBPs, we…

多变量时间序列的稳定空间AI 解读

This paper jointly addresses the challenges of non-stationarity and high dimensionality in analysing multivariate time series. Building on the classical concept of cointegration, we introduce a more flexible notion, called stability space, aimed at capturing stationary components in settings where traditional assumptions may not hold. Based on the dimensionality reduction techniques of Partial Least Squares and Principal Component Analysis, we proposed two non-parametric…

目标研究缺少处理数据时的平均处理效应估计AI 解读

Researchers are frequently interested in understanding the causal effect of treatment interventions. However, in some cases, the treatment of interest--readily available in a randomized controlled trial (RCT)--is either not directly measured or entirely unavailable in observational datasets. This challenge has motivated the development of stochastic incremental propensity score interventions which operate on post-treatment exposures affected by the treatment of interest with…

非随机缺失数据的乘法工具变量模型AI 解读

Instrumental variable (IV) methods offer a valuable approach to account for outcome data missing not-at-random. A valid missing data instrument is a measured factor which (i) predicts the nonresponse process and (ii) is independent of the outcome in the underlying population. For point identification, all existing IV methods for missing data including the celebrated Heckman selection model, a priori restrict the extent of selection bias on the outcome scale, therefore…

SensIAT：评估时间不规则的随机试验敏感性分析 R 包AI 解读

This paper introduces an R package SensIAT that implements a sensitivity analysis methodology, based on augmented inverse intensity weighting, for randomized trials with irregular and potentially informative assessment times. Targets of inference involve the population mean outcome in each treatment arm as well as the difference in these means (i.e., treatment effect) at specified times after randomization. This methodology is useful in settings where there is concern that…

群组标签偏移下的迁移学习：半参数指数倾斜方法AI 解读

We propose a new framework for binary classification in transfer learning settings where both covariate and label distributions may shift between source and target domains. Unlike traditional covariate shift or label shift assumptions, we introduce a group-label shift assumption that accommodates subpopulation imbalance and mitigates spurious correlations, thereby improving robustness to real-world distributional changes. To model the joint distribution difference, we adopt…

回声状态网络的随机矩阵视角：从精确偏差—方差刻画到最优正则化AI 解读

We present a rigorous asymptotic analysis of Echo State Networks (ESNs) in a teacher student setting with a linear teacher with oracle weights. Leveraging random matrix theory, we derive closed form expressions for the asymptotic bias, variance, and mean-squared error (MSE) as functions of the input statistics, the oracle vector, and the ridge regularization parameter. The analysis reveals two key departures from classical ridge regression: (i) ESNs do not exhibit double…

Korobov 空间上分类的泛化分析AI 解读

In this paper, the classification algorithm arising from Tikhonov regularization is discussed. The main intention is to derive learning rates for the excess misclassification error according to the convex $η$-norm loss function $φ(v)=(1 - v)_{+}^η$, $η\geq1$. Following the argument, the estimation of error under Tsybakov noise conditions is studied. In addition, we propose the rate of $L_p$ approximation of functions from Korobov space $X^{2, p}([-1,1]^{d})$, $1\leq p \leq \infty$…

弱工具变量与异方差下的过度识别检验AI 解读

Exogeneity is key for IV estimators, which can assessed via overidentification (OID) tests. We discuss the Kleibergen-Paap (KP) rank test as a heteroskedasticity-robust OID test and compare to the typical J-test. We derive the heteroskedastic weak-instrument limiting distributions for J and KP as special cases of the robust score test estimated via 2SLS and LIML respectively. Monte Carlo simulations show that KP usually performs better than J, which is prone to severe size…

流式自回归时间序列的在线序贯杠杆抽样及地震数据应用AI 解读

Seismic data contain complex temporal information that arrives at high speed and has a large, even potentially unbounded volume. The explosion of temporally correlated streaming data from advanced seismic sensors poses analytical challenges due to its sheer volume and real-time nature. Sampling, or data reduction, is a natural yet powerful tool for handling large streaming data while balancing estimation accuracy and computational cost. Currently, data reduction methods and…

分层变分图融合Lasso：恢复空间成分数据中的相对速率AI 解读

The analysis of spatial data from biological imaging technology, such as imaging mass spectrometry (IMS) or imaging mass cytometry (IMC), is challenging because of a competitive sampling process which convolves signals from molecules in a single pixel. To address this, we develop a scalable Bayesian framework that leverages natural sparsity in spatial signal patterns to recover relative rates for each molecule across the entire image. Our method relies on the use of a…

高维数据下利用外部对照估计 ATT：保留双重稳健性并确保双重安全性AI 解读

Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) are widely regarded as the gold standard for causal inference in biomedical research. For instance, when estimating the average treatment effect on the treated (ATT), a doubly robust estimation procedure can be applied, requiring either the propensity score model or the control outcome model to be correctly specified. In this paper, we address scenarios where external control data, often with a much larger sample size, are available. Such…

微随机试验中调节型因果游离优势比的稳健估计AI 解读

Micro-randomized trials (MRTs) have become increasingly popular for developing and evaluating mobile health interventions that promote healthy behaviors and manage chronic conditions. The recently proposed causal excursion effects have become the standard measure for interventions' marginal and moderated effect in MRTs. Existing methods for MRTs with binary outcomes focus on causal excursion effects on the relative risk scale. However, a causal excursion effect on the odds…

反事实余循环：稳健且一致的反事实传输框架AI 解读

Estimating joint distributions (a.k.a. couplings) over counterfactual outcomes is central to personalized decision-making and treatment risk assessment. Two emergent frameworks with identifiability guarantees are: (i) bijective structural causal models (SCMs), which are flexible but brittle to mis-specified latent noise; and (ii) optimal-transport (OT) methods, which avoid latent noise assumptions but can produce incoherent counterfactual transports which fail to identify…

重尾高频金融观测下的因子与特质 VAR 波动率矩阵模型AI 解读

This paper introduces a novel process for both factor and idiosyncratic volatility matrices whose eigenvalues follow the vector auto-regressive (VAR) model. We call it the factor and idiosyncratic VAR (FIVAR) model. The FIVAR model accounts for the dynamics of the factor and idiosyncratic volatilities and includes many parameters. In addition, many empirical studies have shown that high-frequency stock returns and volatilities often exhibit heavy tails. To handle these two…

含向量时间序列协变量的时空矩阵自回归模型AI 解读

We develop a new methodology for forecasting matrix-valued time series with historical matrix data and auxiliary vector time series data. We focus on a time series of matrices defined on a static 2-D spatial grid and an auxiliary time series of non-spatial vectors. The proposed model, Matrix AutoRegression with Auxiliary Covariates (MARAC), contains an autoregressive component for the historical matrix predictors and an additive component that maps the auxiliary vector…

结合偏态正态分布与隐马尔可夫模型扩展时间序列有限混合模型AI 解读

We introduce an extension of finite mixture models by incorporating skew-normal distributions within a Hidden Markov Model framework. By assuming a constant transition probability matrix and allowing emission distributions to vary according to hidden states, the proposed model effectively captures dynamic dependencies between variables. Through the estimation of state-specific parameters, including location, scale, and skewness, the proposed model enables the detection of…

使用敏感变量建模AI 解读

The paper deals with models in which the dependent variable, some explanatory variables, or both represent sensitive data. We introduce a novel discretization method that preserves data privacy when working with such variables. A multiple discretization method is proposed that utilizes information from the different discretization schemes. We show convergence in distribution for the unobserved variable and derive the asymptotic properties of the OLS estimator for linear…

存在样本选择的配对关系回归AI 解读

This paper addresses the sample selection problem in panel dyadic regression analysis. Dyadic data often include many zeros in the main outcomes due to the underlying network formation process. This not only contaminates popular estimators used in practice but also complicates the inference due to the dyadic dependence structure. We extend Kyriazidou (1997)'s approach to dyadic data and characterize the asymptotic distribution of our proposed estimator. The convergence rates…

稳健的高维时变系数估计AI 解读

In this paper, we develop a novel high-dimensional coefficient estimation procedure based on high-frequency data. Unlike usual high-dimensional regression procedures such as LASSO, we additionally handle the heavy-tailedness of high-frequency observations as well as time variations of coefficient processes. Specifically, we employ the Huber loss and a truncation scheme to handle heavy-tailed observations, while $\ell_{1}$-regularization is adopted to overcome the curse of…

外科干预的因果机器学习AI 解读

Surgical decision-making is complex and requires understanding causal relationships between patient characteristics, interventions, and outcomes. In high-stakes settings like spinal fusion or scoliosis correction, accurate estimation of individualized treatment effects (ITEs) remains limited due to the reliance on traditional statistical methods that struggle with complex, heterogeneous data. In this study, we develop a multi-task meta-learning framework, X-MultiTask, for…