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欧洲环境政策与企业表现：考虑溢出的双重差分方法AI 解读

In this paper we investigate the causal impact of the European Union Emissions Trading System, a cap-and-trade scheme limiting greenhouse gas emissions of firms, on their environmental performance. Although previous studies have focused primarily on the effect of the emission cap imposed by the policy, we argue that the trading mechanism creates complex interdependencies among firms that can change the policy's intended effects. We develop a novel Difference-in-Differences…

带约束的经验福利最大化AI 解读

Empirical Welfare Maximization (EWM) is a framework that can be used to select welfare program eligibility policies based on data. This paper extends EWM by allowing for uncertainty in estimating the budget needed to implement the selected policy, in addition to its welfare. Due to the additional estimation error, I show there exist no rules that achieve the highest welfare possible while satisfying a budget constraint uniformly over a wide range of DGPs. This differs from…

函数型周期ARMA过程AI 解读

Periodicity is a common feature of time series. For finite-dimensional data, periodic autoregressive moving average (ARMA) models have been extensively studied. In functional time series analysis, AR models have been extended to incorporate periodicity, but existing approaches remain incomplete and do not cover the ARMA setting. This paper develops a rigorous theoretical framework for functional periodic ARMA (fPARMA) processes in general separable Hilbert spaces. The…

利用部分验证信息估计项目参与AI 解读

This paper considers the estimation of binary choice models when survey responses are possibly misclassified but one of the response category can be validated. Partial validation may occur when survey questions about participation include follow-up questions on that particular response category. In this case, we show that the initial two-sided misclassification problem can be transformed into a one-sided one, based on the partially validated responses. Using the updated…

用双重／去偏机器学习对脉冲响应函数进行半参数推断AI 解读

We introduce a double/debiased machine learning estimator for the impulse response function in settings where a time series of interest is subjected to multiple discrete treatments, assigned over time, which can have a causal effect on future outcomes. The proposed estimator can rely on fully nonparametric relations between treatment and outcome variables, opening up the possibility to use flexible machine learning approaches to estimate impulse response functions. To this…

大型网络中内生处理、干扰与溢出的异质效应AI 解读

This paper studies the identification and estimation of heterogeneous effects of an endogenous treatment under interference and spillovers in a large single-network setting. We model endogenous treatment selection as an equilibrium outcome that explicitly accounts for spillovers and derive conditions guaranteeing the existence and uniqueness of this equilibrium. We then identify heterogeneous marginal exposure effects (MEEs), which may vary with both the treatment status of…

记录错配下链接数据的因果二次分析AI 解读

The increased prevalence of observational data and the need to integrate information from multiple sources are critical challenges in contemporary data analysis. Record linkage is a widely used tool for combining datasets in the absence of unique identifiers. The presence of linkage errors such as mismatched records, however, often hampers the analysis of data sets obtained in this way. This issue is more difficult to address in secondary analysis settings, where linkage and…

倾向得分加权中的欠平滑LASSO与合成负对照暴露偏差检测AI 解读

The propensity score (PS) is often used to control for large numbers of covariates in high-dimensional healthcare database studies. The least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) has become the most widely used tool for fitting large-scale PS models in these settings. LASSO uses L1 regularized regression to prevent overfitting by shrinking coefficients toward zero (setting some exactly to zero). The degree of regularization is typically selected using…

基于路径签名的选择检测：含重组的多位点时间种群遗传模型AI 解读

In population genetics, there is often interest in inferring selection coefficients. This task becomes more challenging if multiple linked selected loci are considered simultaneously. For such a situation, we propose a novel generalized Bayesian framework where we compute a scoring rule posterior for the selection coefficients in multi-locus temporal population genetics models. As we consider trajectories of allele frequencies over time as our data, we choose to use a…

协变量自适应随机化下无缝Ⅱ/Ⅲ期试验的模型稳健推断AI 解读

Seamless phase II/III trials have become a cornerstone of modern drug development, offering a means to accelerate evaluation while maintaining statistical rigor. However, most existing inference procedures are model-based, designed primarily for continuous outcomes, and often neglect the stratification used in covariate-adaptive randomization (CAR), limiting their practical relevance. In this paper, we propose a unified, model-robust framework for seamless phase II/III…

重抽样方法的快速检验反演AI 解读

Randomization-based inference commonly relies on grid search methods to construct confidence intervals by inverting hypothesis tests over a range of parameter values. While straightforward, this approach is computationally intensive and can yield conservative intervals due to discretization. We propose a novel method that exploits the algebraic structure of a broad class of test statistics--including those with variance estimators dependent on the null hypothesis--to produce…

整群随机对照试验中平均处理效应估计量的精确方差AI 解读

In cluster randomized controlled trials (CRCT) with a finite populations, the exact design-based variance of the Horvitz-Thompson (HT) estimator for the average treatment effect (ATE) depends on the joint distribution of unobserved cluster-aggregated potential outcomes and is therefore not point-identifiable. We study a common two-stage sampling design-random sampling of clusters followed by sampling units within sampled clusters-with treatment assigned at the cluster level.…

条件独立性检验在实践中的困难AI 解读

Tests of conditional independence (CI) underpin a number of important problems in machine learning and statistics, from causal discovery to evaluation of predictor fairness and out-of-distribution robustness. Shah and Peters (2020) showed that, contrary to the unconditional case, no universally finite-sample valid test can ever achieve nontrivial power. While informative, this result (based on "hiding" dependence) does not seem to explain the frequent practical failures…

贝叶斯全局-局部正则化AI 解读

We propose a unified framework for global-local regularization that bridges the gap between classical techniques -- such as ridge regression and the nonnegative garotte -- and modern Bayesian hierarchical modeling. By estimating local regularization strengths via marginal likelihood under order constraints, our approach generalizes Stein's positive-part estimator and provides a principled mechanism for adaptive shrinkage in high-dimensional settings. We establish that this…

集成策略学习的理论保证及其时间序列预测应用AI 解读

Ensembling is among the most popular tools in machine learning (ML) due to its effectiveness in minimizing variance and thus improving generalization. Most ensembling methods for black-box base learners fall under the umbrella of "stacked generalization," namely training an ML algorithm that takes the inferences from the base learners as input. While stacking has been widely applied in practice, its theoretical properties are poorly understood. In this paper, we prove a…

正值性违背下用于因果效应估计的部分重定向平衡权重AI 解读

Positivity violations, which occur when some subgroups either always or never receive a treatment of interest, pose significant challenges for causal effect estimation with observational data. Recent balancing weight methods have proved to be highly effective in confounding control, however their utility is diminished in the presence of positivity violations, resulting in bias and excess variance. Approaches that deal with positivity violations, on the other hand, work by…

高维函数型时间序列协方差与谱密度估计的收敛性AI 解读

Second-order characteristics including covariance and spectral density functions are fundamentally important for both statistical applications and theoretical analysis in functional time series. In the high-dimensional setting where the number of functional variables is large relative to the length of functional time series, non-asymptotic theory for covariance function estimation has been developed for Gaussian and sub-Gaussian functional linear processes. However,…

连续处理下的形状限制检验：变换模型方法AI 解读

We propose tests for the convexity/linearity/concavity of a transformation of the dependent variable in a semiparametric transformation model. These tests can be used to verify monotonicity of the treatment effect, or, equivalently, concavity/convexity of the outcome with respect to the treatment, in (quasi-)experimental settings. Our procedure does not require estimation of the transformation or the distribution of the error terms. The statistic takes the form of a U…

混合预测变量与响应变量的正则化降秩回归AI 解读

In this paper, we introduce the Generalized Mixed Regularized Reduced Rank Regression model (GMR4), an extension of the GMR3 model designed to improve performance in high-dimensional settings. GMR3 is a regression method for a mix of numeric, binary and ordinal response variables, while also allowing for mixed-type predictors through optimal scaling. GMR4 extends this approach by incorporating regularization techniques, such as Ridge, Lasso, Group Lasso, or any combination…

临床输血结局研究：实用方法指南AI 解读

Clinical transfusion-outcomes research faces unique methodological challenges compared with other areas of clinical research. These challenges arise because patients frequently receive multiple transfusions, each unit originates from a different donor, and the probability of receiving specific blood product characteristics is influenced by external, often uncontrollable, factors. These complexities complicate causal inference in observational studies of transfusion…

澳大利亚住房市场的市场敏感度与增长差异AI 解读

Australian house prices have risen strongly since the mid-1990s, but growth has been highly uneven across regions. Raw growth figures obscure whether these differences reflect persistent structural trends or cyclical fluctuations. We address this by estimating a three-factor model in levels for regional repeat-sales log price indexes over 1995-2024. The model decomposes each regional index into a national Market factor, two stationary spreads (Mining and Lifestyle) that…

利用代理 p 值与 e 值的主动多重检验AI 解读

Researchers often lack the resources to test every hypothesis of interest directly or compute test statistics comprehensively, but often possess auxiliary data from which we can compute an estimate of the experimental outcome. We introduce a novel approach for selecting which hypotheses to query a statistic (e.g., run an experiment, perform expensive computation, etc.) in a hypothesis testing setup by leveraging estimates to compute proxy statistics. Our framework allows a…

全贝叶斯分层线性模型的变分推断AI 解读

Bayesian hierarchical linear models provide a natural framework to analyze nested and clustered data. Classical estimation with Markov chain Monte Carlo produces well calibrated posterior distributions but becomes computationally expensive in high dimensional or large sample settings. Variational Inference and Stochastic Variational Inference offer faster optimization based alternatives, but their accuracy in hierarchical structures is uncertain when group separation is…

面板 AR(1) 模型中基于准极大似然的一致有效推断AI 解读

Maximum Likelihood (ML) offers attractive alternatives to Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) estimators for dynamic panel data models. However, to date no identification-robust inference methods exist that can be used in conjunction with the ML estimators for these models. In this paper we propose ML based inference methods for panel AR(1) models with arbitrary initial conditions and heteroskedasticity that are robust to the strength of identification. We show that (Quasi)…